An unsettled atmospheric pattern has taken hold of the area early this week, and will continue to be in place through around Wednesday evening. Although the main storm system won't arrive until Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning, numerous small disturbances in the atmosphere will provide a chance of showers on Monday, and will likely keep clouds around as well. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are only expected to reach into the 50's for highs, as the surface winds turn east off the Atlantic waters. In addition to keeping temperatures down, this flow of air combined with the unsettled pattern in the atmosphere will keep plenty of clouds around through the middle of the week as well. The steady rain will likely wait, as we mentioned, until later Tuesday Night through Wednesday, when a strong low pressure area approaches from our south and west. This low pressure will traverse northeast through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast, before redeveloping somewhere off the coast. The presence of strong lift for precipitation as the storm passes will set the stage for moderate to heavy rain at times overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. The storm is expected to wrap up by Wednesday afternoon, with the potential for an isolated rain or snow shower thereafter. In the image to our right, we can see the NAM model showing the weak atmospheric disturbance over our area today, and the strong disturbance over the Plains heading in our direction (both circled in yellow).

Today (Monday): Increasing clouds, with a 30% chance of rain. High near 54. New rainfall amounts of less than 0.10" possible.

Monday Night: Cloudy, with a chance of rain. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Overnight low near 45. New rainfall amounts of near 0.10" possible.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of rain. High near 53. New rainfall amounts of 0.10" to 0.25" possible. 


Over time, you've probably heard us mention the term "South-west flow event" or "SWFE" as a way of defining a winter storm or type of system. This has become somewhat loosely defined, but essentially describes the type of storm system we're dealing with this coming Tuesday into Wednesday. On the image above, at the top of this post, you'll see the strong atmospheric disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere, which at the time of the image is situated over the Plains states. This energy is ejecting northeastward, towards the Ohio Valley. As it does so, you'll also notice a ridge building ahead of this feature (black lines buckling ahead of it). This ridge is developing as a result of the southwest flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere, which is driving the system northeastward.

This southwest flow can develop through the mid, and even low levels of the atmosphere. During the winter, these systems can cause forecast nightmares. Part of the problem develops when there is a strong surface high near our area at the time of a south-west flow events approach. Imagine the strong surface high, keeping cold winter-like air at the very surface of the atmosphere, while a south-west flow event brings warm air into the levels above it. This often results in sleet, which forms as snowflakes form in the upper atmosphere, melt in the middle atmosphere (as a result of warm temperatures from the south-west flow) and then re-freeze at the cold surface.

Luckily for us, this south-west flow event is occurring just a few weeks before we typically have a winter-like cold airmass in place. This time, we don't have to worry about precipitation-type and changeovers. We'll leave that problem to our neighbors to the north over Central New England. Something tells me, though, we'll be revisiting this problem sooner than later.


Article written by JH. Published November 21st, 2011 at 11:34am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming week and holiday, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM model showing low pressure along a front near our area.

The warmth we have experienced over the past several days has been anomalous for this time of year (mid-november) with highs nearing the 70 degree mark for two consecutive days. However, a frontal boundary approaching the region will set the stage for an unsettled middle of the week, and then a drop in temperatures by Friday. Essentially, a reminder that it is in fact the middle of November. The airmass behind the front is expected to be quite cool (albeit transient), with high temperatures only scraping 50 on Thursday and Friday. That said, we have a frontal boundary near the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the potential for showers will exist on both days. Disturbances in the middle of the atmosphere will force the development of weak low pressures along the front, driving areas of precipitation from southwest to northeast from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. The first of these is forecast to occur Tuesday Night into Wednesday, and the second early Thursday...both bringing the potential for steady rain. Showery weather will continue otherwise. By Thursday and Friday, we will see more sun..but as mentioned, a fresh new canadian airmass will be in place--and it will be feeling much more like mid November.


Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers. High near 64. New rainfall near 0.10" possible.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of rain. Overnight low near 53. New rainfall between 0.10" and 0.25" possible.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of rain. High near 60. New rainfall of 0.10" to 0.25" possible.

Article written by JH. Published November 15th, 2011 at 11:27am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing low pressure developing well to our northeast (Blue dot is NYC)

Usually when cold fronts cross our area in the fall or spring, they can bring some pretty dramatic temperature differences as well as some fairly heavy precipitation. You probably remember the strong fall cold fronts of the past, bringing in winter-like air with a period of very heavy rain. Thursday's front, however, will have all of it's thunder stolen by Tropical Storm Sean which is currently spinning out in the Atlantic Ocean. How does this happen? Essentially, the moisture which would normally feed along or ahead of the cold front is involved in Sean. The interaction between this tropical disturbance and the mid level disturbancing kicking the cold front through will eventually produce heavy precipitation--but it will likely be to the east of our area. This precipitaiton is forecast to develop over Eastern New England Thursday Night into Friday, and may clip parts of Long Island. In fact, by Friday, a very strong cyclone is forecast to develop near Maine as the mid level disturbance over the Northeast interacts with Sean. Over our area, periods of drizzle and light showers are possible on Thursday, but it looks like we're going to avoid any moderate to heavy precipitation. Cold air will move in behind the front, bringing breezy conditions on Friday and Saturday...especially with the storm rapidly deepening to our northeast.


Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers. High near 62. Total rainfall less than 0.10".
 
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Overnight low near 41.

Article written by JH. Published November 10th, 2011 at 12:51am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing low pressure along a front near the area on Thursday afternoon.

A strong gradient in the mid levels of the atmosphere will develop across the Northeast on Thursday , and the gradient will eventually extend down towards the surface in the form of a well defined frontal boundary, which will settle near the area beginning Thursday morning and afternoon. This frontal boundary will serve as a "highway" for low pressure and moderate to heavy precipitation to develop at the surface, as a strong disturbance moves over the boundary in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Such a development will bring a threat of moderate to heavy precipitation to the forecast area, beginning on Thursday and continuing through Thursday evening. The precipitation looks to be somewhat spotty early, as mentioned above, so it won't be a deluge for your morning commute. However, by mid-morning the precipitation intensity should pick up, and it will continue on and off throughout the remainder of the day. Making the situation more complicated is the intrusion of significant cold air which is expected as the storm passes and the front sags south. This will bring colder temperatures into the system on Thursday evening, and the potential would exist for some frozen precipitation  in the higher elevations of the distant interior. The snow would be short lived and will stay away from the coast and the city as well as the immediate suburbs. The official forecast is below...


Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with rain likely. High near 55. West winds around 5 miles per hour. A dreary and chilly day.


Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. The showers could end as snow showers far north and west and in higher elevations. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Low near 38. Cooler inland. West winds 5 miles per hour. 


WILD WEEKEND? This weekend looks to provide more dramatics, as the boundary settles offshore. Forecast models are indicative of the development of a low pressure system along this front, which could track north and then northeast up the East Coast. Such a track could (emphasis on could) bring the threat for frozen precipitation right back into the picture on Saturday, with the potential for snow, once again, away from the coast. However, the forecast models have been highly inconsistent, and it's going to take some time to iron out the exact track of the system. Some forecast models have the storm missing completely out to sea. Needless to say, we're watching it very closely. Stay with us for more details as the week continues. 

Article written by JH. Published October 27th, 2011 at 2:20am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the end of the week into the weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing total accumulated rain amounts of near 2 inches in spots on Wednesday.

A significant disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere will strengthen further on Wednesday, as it moves from the Tennessee Valley towards the East Coast. This system will force the development of a strong area of low pressure at the surface, which will move northward from the Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley. Obviously this is well to the west of the area, and the low pressure is expected to stay there. However, this time, we're not out of the woods at all. In fact, we're expecting the threat of widespread showers and potentially heavy rains during the day today. The culprit will be a warm front which will extend east of the low pressure, coincidentally, directly over our area. This front will provide extra forcing/lift for precipitation to form and become heavy. In a moisture rich environment, and with a dynamic system in the atmosphere so nearby (including the presence of a developing low level jet), it isn't hard to fathom the potential for widespread showers as well as heavy rain for a period on Wednesday. The forecast models are (still) a bit inconsistent with this feature, but it appears at the very least likely that Wednesday will be marred by widespread showers and gloomy conditions. Where the heavy rain falls remains somewhat up in the air--but we will certainly be tracking it throughout the day today.

High temperatures in the middle 60's are forecast throughout the area, but south of the warm front (over Central NJ) temperatures may reach near 70 F as winds turn southerly and warm air is advected into the area. By overnight Wednesday into Thursday, a dry slot is expected to work into the area...ending the threat for showers and eventually allowing for clearing by Thursday morning.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Cloudy with a chance of showers early, then rain likely. The rain may be heavy at times. High near 65. East wind 10 miles per hour, gusting to 20 miles per hour at times. A dreary, gloomy day with the potential for heavy rain during the afternoon and early evening. Bring the rain gear!

Tonight: Cloudy with rain likely early, then a chance of showers. By dawn, clearing. Overnight low near 60. Southeast winds 15 miles per hour.

Article written by JH. Published October 19th, 2011 at 12:30am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing low pressure moving near our area Thursday.

The wonderfully warm weather of the weekend now a distant memory, showers and cool conditions have taken a stranglehold on the areas weather and will continue to do so through the end of the week. The culprit is a broad disturbance in the middle of the atmosphere, which will continue to spin near the area through Friday afternoon. Individual pertubations in the flow of the atmosphere (smaller disturbances) will move up the east coast on Thursday, causing the development of showers with areas of embedded moderate to heavy rain. The rain is not expected to be overly widespread in it's heavy nature, but the showers will definitely make for a damp, cool, and wet forecast. Our area avoided much of the more steady shower activity on Wednesday, but Thursday looks to be a different story. The showers and poor conditions are forecast to continue through Friday morning, when the system begins to lift north of the region. Thereafter, clearing is forecast through Friday with winds becoming gusty out of the west on Friday night into Saturday. That being said, despite the winds, most will be happy to see the sun after the unsettled weather this week will have provided.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers. The rain may be moderate to heavy at times. East/northeast winds off the water will keep the air feeling damp. High temperatures in the middle 60's.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. Chance of precipitation is 80%.  The showers could be moderate to heavy at times. East/southeast winds continuing to keep the air cool and damp. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60's.

Article written by JH. Published October 13th, 2011 at 12:37am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model showing low pressure moving up the coast this week.

Over the past three days, temperatures have averaged over 15 degrees ( to near 20 degrees in spots) above  normal averages. The afternoons have been filled with warm sun, and the weekend was characterized by a summer-like vibe throughout the area as thousands flocked to the beaches. These temperatures and summer-like conditions were a direct result of a large ridge in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, which brought warm air from the south-southwest and funneled it east into our area. The vast high pressure kept the weather dry and sunny, and it made for one of the best stretches of early to mid October weather that one can ask for. Records were broken on Sunday afternoon as the thermometer reached the upper 80's. However, the middle of this week should do it's part to serve as a stark reminder that it is not summer. In fact, it's the middle of October which often features high temperatures in the low to mid 60's and sometimes cool, raw and showery conditions. The forecast during the middle of the week will take a sharp turn towards this historically "normal" pattern.

By Tuesday afternoon, a low pressure system will begin moving north up the East Coast. Currently located off the coast of the Carolinas, this low pressure system is taking over the pattern as the high pressure which dominated our area's weather this weekend moves away. With the counter-clockwise flow of air around a low pressure to our south, winds will take a sharp easterly turn by Tuesday afternoon. Clouds, and temperatures only maxing out in the 70's will be the result...but this won't be the worst of the weather for the week. Tuesday Night through essentially mid-Thursday, the potential will exist for moderate to heavy rain in association with the low pressure, which will pass just east of our area. In fact, Wednesday's high temperatures may barely get into the lower 60's. Sound dramatically cool compared to this weekend? It should, but it's only two to three degrees below our averages this time of year. The rain is expected to begin to wrap up by Friday, and the weekend (although it's in the distant future, still) may provide cool and crisp conditions with a fresh new high pressure moving down from Canada.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Cloudy with a chance of spotty showers. The showers won't be widespread early, band likely would be better defined as isolated. But by afternoon and evening, they will become more scattered. Chance of rain exists pretty much throughout the day.. Winds northeast..generally around 5 to 10 miles per hour but maybe a bit more gusty near the shore and on the coastal waters.

Tonight: Cloudy, with a slight chance of showers throughout the evening. Low near 58. East winds 10 to 15 miles per hour, and the maritime air will make it feel much more damp and cool compared to the past several nights.

Article written by JH. Re-published October 12th, 2011 at 1:25am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing high pressure in control later this week.

The upper level low is finally on it's way out. No, seriously, this time it's actually beginning to shift away from the area. It's shifting east/northeast in a weakness in the atmospheric pattern, which up until this point has acted as a "block", and allowed for the system to spin stagnant over the Central and Eastern US over the past two weeks. Today, the system is shifting east and will only scrape our area with the potential for some showers and clouds. Definitely not the most pleasant day, but temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than they were on Monday. Additionally, most of the hope lies in the weather which is in the future--as the middle and end of the week look to feature some of the most pleasant conditions we've seen since two weeks ago. We have to get through today first, though, and the story will be much of the same. High temperatures in the lower to middle 60's, with damp winds and a chance of showers. Skies will be partly cloudy at times, but will cloud up rapidly during the afternoon in the presence of scattered showers.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Tuesday): Partly to mostly cloudy, high temperatures in the lower to middle 60's. Chance of showers 30%. Northwest winds around 10 miles per hour. Still feeling cool and damp--long sleeves a good idea. May want to bring an umbrella along as scattered showers are expected this afternoon.

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Temperatures dropping once again into the lower to middle 50's in the city, and 40's inland. Bring a jacket or sweatshirt for sure. Chance of precipitation is 30% before midnight, gradually decreasing thereafter.

Article written by JH. Published October 4th, 2011 at 1:09am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing high temps barely scraping 60 degrees today.

Before we began our forecast two weeks ago, we included the possibility of an upper level system becoming "stagnant" over the United States. Stagnant probably is a bit of an understatement for the amount of persistence this upper level storm system. The system has spun over the Central US for a good part of the last two weeks, and it's also provided our area with a tremendous amount of unsettled weather in that time frame. Meanwhile, over the past week, it has begun it's slow shift eastward towards our area. The result has been (surprise!) continued unsettled weather, with showers and poor conditions, as well as slowly declining temperatures. All of that being said, we have good news to bring. By the middle of this week, the storm system is going to begin ejecting northeast away from the area, and fair weather is expected from Wednesday onward. Today is also forecast to be a decent day--with partly cloudy skies and only isolated showers. High temperatures will barely scrape 60 with a cool and damp feel to the air, but the lack of rain and some sunshine should make it feel pleasant. Enjoy it, because Tuesday should sandwich the two pleasant days of the week with showery weather.


THE FORECAST...

Today (Monday): Partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers. The day should be mostly pleasant, with clouds in and out. Yet, with the storm system still spinning overhead, showers could make their appearance once again in the afternoon. High temperatures only scraping 60, near 62 in the city. Cooler inland and near the coast. Winds south and southeast around 10 miles per hour. Sweatshirt? Sounds like a good idea.

Tonight: Becoming mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers. The showers could be somewhat more widespread than they were during the day and on Sunday. Temperatures falling into the 40's inland and near 50 in the city. Definitely bring a sweatshirt or jacket along. It'll be a raw night.


Article written by JH. Published October 3rd, 2011 at 12:31am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing rain  to our west today over Central Pennsylvania, while our area remains dry.

The forecast hasn't changed much over the past week and a half, as each day as offered mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers throughout the day. Some days have featured heavier rain, some have featured just showery activity. Sunday looks to be no different, as the stagnant disturbance in the atmosphere responsible for this mess over the last week or more is still moving near the area. The good news is that despite the threat for showers early, all forecast models indicate a break in the action associated with a dry slot in the middle of the atmosphere (less moisture to support rain and clouds). This break is forecast to occur after the late morning hours and continue through the early afternoon, before some showers re-enter the forecast during the later afternoon. Timing these breaks is extremely difficult, but we figured it would be worth a mention considering how dreary the weather has been of late. The main deal with Sunday will be the temperatures, which will barely scrape into the low 60's. The northerly winds will keep it feeling cool, raw, and damp.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Sunday): Mostly cloudy early, with a chance of showers. Then becoming partly cloudy, with a chance of showers. High near 64. Northeast wind around 10 miles per hour. Bring a long sleeved shirt or a sweatshirt--it's going to be feeling chilly out there.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Low near 50--damp and cool. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 miles per hour. Long sleeved shirts or sweatshirts are recommended once again.

ALDS GAME 2 FORECAST....

The two-day extravaganza that was Game 1 now a distant memory, and one Yankees win later, we look ahead towards Game 2 with a better forecast. The disturbance near the area will calm down a bit on Sunday, as it continues spinning just to our west. Although a chance of isolated to scattered showers exists on Sunday, there's a growing possibility that a dry slot (lack of moisture to produce clouds and rain) in the atmosphere could enter the area just before game time. This means we may actually see the sun during the game (amazing, we know). Stay here through the day and we'll keep you as updated as we can.

Article written by JH. Published October 2nd, 2011 at 1:36am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend and upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

Tarp covers a rain-soaked Yankee Stadium on Friday evening.

September closed as a continuation of August, which remained one of the wettest periods in New York City's recorded history. October won't begin any differently, as a storm system off the coast re-develops through the early morning hours...bringing moderate to heavy rain through the area. The rain is expected to continue, albeit more showery, through the afternoon. There may be a break in the action during the early afternoon, but by evening the showers will be around again. The weather Friday night caused disruption to the ALDS Game 1, which was postponed and rescheduled for tonight at 8:37pm. Unfortunately, it looks as if the Yankees will be battling the rain once again. This certainly won't go over well with those who are returning to the game to see the final innings (the game is being started where it was suspended, in the bottom of the 2nd inning and tied at 1). The rain looks to be more showery in nature than it was on Friday, but it won't be pleasant to say the least. Temperatures by evening will also be cooler than they were on Friday, and the rain and breeze will make it feel raw.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Saturday): Mostly cloudy, with rain likely in the morning. Then mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers through the evening. High temperatures near 66. North winds around 10 miles per hour--feeling damp and dreary. Chance of precipitation 100% early, 50% late.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Low temperatures falling into the lower 50's. North winds continued around 10 miles per hour.

FALL FOLIAGE UPDATE...

The progress of the yearly Fall Foliage and leaf drop continues to gain steam as the season continues to progress, but the overall color change throughout the Northeast United States remains well behind that of last year. Low color has only barely begun in Northwest New Jersey, and the color remains below the scale of color change elsewhere. Meanwhile, to our north over New England, low to moderate color has been observed over the mountains of New York State, Vermont, and New Hampshire and extending into Maine. Our color change usually becomes dramatic, in this part of the country, around the first weekend of October. So although we are running behind schedule, it's nothing too drastic. We should begin to see low to moderate color change within a week. The rain and cooler temperatures will definitely help.

NAM model forecasting a line of showers and storms near the area around 8:00pm today.

A persistent and stagnant storm in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere has finally made it's way towards the area, and it brought a cold front through the region on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms were widespread throughout the day, even becoming strong to severe during the afternoon. Areas of Northeast New Jersey experienced 0.88" hail and severe, damaging winds...which toppled trees and caused damage in Eastern Bergen County. This front has since passed the area, but the system is beginning it's interaction with another storm to it's north. As the two "phase" (meteorological term for interact/become one), another low pressure area will come up the east coast Saturday morning. The trouble in Fridays forecast is trying to time the re-development of showers and storms, and see if we can squeak out a dry day to close out the week. Remaining totally dry seems somewhat unlikely, but during the afternoon temperatures should reach into the middle to upper 70's with some sun. Afterwards, showers and storms are forecast to develop...scattered at first...by early evening, and then become more widespread by early Saturday morning

THE FORECAST..

Today (Friday): Partly cloudy early, with a chance isolated of showers and thunderstorms. Then becoming mostly cloudy by evening, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. High near 78. South-southwest winds around 10 miles per hour. It will feel pretty warm during the afternoon--so don't be fooled by the chance of showers..if you're heading out, don't wear anything too heavy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures falling to near 60 overnight, with a westerly breeze developing. Definitely bring the rain gear in case, and dress appropriately as temperatures will feel pretty cool. Chance of precipitation is 50%

ALDS GAME 1 FORECAST...

The New York Yankees are scheduled to play the first game of the American League Division Series tonight, squaring off against the Detroit Tigers at 8:37pm at Yankee Stadium. Showers and thunderstorms, albiet scattered, are in the forecast. For the very latest on the development of showers and storms as the game approaches, check our latest forecast for the game (both game 1 and 2). Also, be sure to check our Twitter Feed for up to the minute updates.

Article written by JH. Published September 30th, 2011 at 12:01am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

In case you haven't heard yet, the New York Yankees are gearing up for the 2011 American League  Division Series which will be played beginning this Friday in the Bronx. During the stretch of the regular season the Yankees have experienced a tremendous amount of weather related delays, game impacts, and postponements. Ultimately, these weather related impacts (although seemingly small at the time), have had impacts on the team during the season including doubleheaders and shortened/adjusted travel time. All of that said, Autumn is what we like to call a "transition season" here in New York City. The pattern is changing, and the weather can abruptly change as well. This time of year often brings the potential for some nasty weather (remember the Angels wearing the face masks to keep warm in the 2009 ALCS?....yeah), and it's our job to keep you updated on what's happening. Whether you're headed out to the stadium, expected to be out and about that night, or simply looking to check up to see if there's any problems expected, this is your place to be. 


The bad news, at the current time, is that the atmosphere looks to be unsettled during the first two games at Yankee Stadium. The details are below...


THE FORECAST...
To keep it simple, there are two cold fronts that are forecast to pass the area. The first is passing through Thursday evening. There could be a period of heavy rain with this front. Behind it, winds will kick up a bit out of the south through Friday afternoon. The second front will be near the area around game time. It is hard to say at this time whether or not this front will produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. It may very well pass the area without much notice, or it may touch off storms that could impact the area around the 830pm start time. One thing working in our direction: moisture in the atmosphere will be less, because of the first front passing in the morning. We will be watching carefully!




The airmass will be much cooler by the time Game 2 of the ALDS rolls around on Saturday. There is a chance, again, for scattered showers. The front will be to the east of the area, but the atmosphere will still be unstable and unsettled. This will be a situation where we will have to watch carefully as the day goes on to see what's developing. By the latter half of the evening (later in the game), the air will be cooler, and temperatures by evening should fall into the 50's. Northwest winds, and a cool high pressure building in, will make it feel like October baseball for sure. 

Radar image from wunderground shows movement & intensity of precipitation over the past hour.

Although temperatures and humidity will make it feel warm (in a continuing trend over the past several days), Wednesday should be characterized by the presence of increased chances of showers. That being said, what once looked like the potential for heavy rain throughout portions of the day has turned into isolated showers, a certain improvement in the forecast. The key, is that forecast models are now weaker with a developing mid level disturbance passing the area this afternoon. The main large storm remains back to our west--and the disturbance today was forecast to be strong enough to touch of heavy rain. However, forecast models have since backed off, and it looks like the day should be generally salvaged. High temperatures in the mid 70's look like a sure bet--a few degrees cooler than the first two days of the week. Still, the presence of showers will likely have Wednesday remembered as a more damp and dreary day than the last two, even with the potential for dry conditions during the afternoon.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers. High temperatures in the middle 70's over Southern New Jersey and the NYC Metro, and lower 70's elsewhere. East winds and dew points in the 60's will lead to a much more damp day.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers. Low temperatures in the middle 60's. Continued east winds off the water--damp conditions continue.

LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL...

Unsettled weather has, generally (sans the past two days), plagued our area over the past week or more. The threat of unsettled weather could continue through Thursday as the main atmospheric disturbance nears. That said, most forecast models have a cold front clearing the area by Friday, which should offer clearing skies for Game 1 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium. There is a chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm as the disturbance begins to exit the area (won't quite be gone by Friday). We'll have a full forecast for the game beginning later tonight, so stay tuned! 


Article written by JH. Published September 28th, 2011 at 1:18am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model's forecast highs today

In what ended up surprising many people throughout the tri-state area, Monday turned out to be a beautiful day and actually reached to fairly warm temperatures throughout the area. The thermometer reached 81 degrees at Newark, New Jersey this afternoon, which is eight degrees above the average high temperature of 73. The record was 90, set back in 2007. That being said, the dew points in the upper 60's to near 70 made the air feel heavy and thick. It was certainly a throwback to summer weather, which some had thought was long gone for the next several months. The warm weather will stick around one more day, on Tuesday, as temperatures are forecast to rise towards 80 once again. Clouds will be more plentiful this time around, and the chances for showers will also be a bit higher. That being said, it looks like the majority of the day through the afternoon should be salvaged. Forecast models indicate increasing clouds throughout the day, and showers approaching from the west by evening into the overnight in association with the mid level disturbance which is still (yes, still) spinning to our west.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Tuesday): Becoming mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms by late afternoon and evening. Highs in the upper 70's to near 80 in the metro and Central New Jersey, and mid to upper 70's elsewhere. Still feeling humid with a southerly wind component and high dew points--definitely another short sleeves/shorts type of day.

Tonight (Tuesday Night): Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures again falling only into the mid to upper 60's--so it won't be a cool night. You may want to bring a hoodie or umbrella along just in case it begins to rain.


UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN...

The unsettled weather will return by Wednesday as the frontal boundary near the area is touched off once again by the mid level disturbance which will then be approaching our area. Showers and thunderstorms are a distinct possibility beginning on Wednesday, and the threat of unsettled weather could continue through Thursday as the disturbance nears. Most forecast models have the disturbance clearing the area by mid-Friday, which should offer clearing skies for Game 1 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium. We'll have a full forecast for the game towards the middle of the week. 


Article written by John Homenuk. Published September 27th, 2011 at 12:04am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM models forecast highs today

Although the mid and upper level disturbance, which caused the unsettled weather towards the end of last week, is still spinning off to our west, it appears that Monday will be salvaged as a pleasant day. In fact, it could turn out to be one of the warmer days in the area since the big cold front came through just around two weeks ago. Temperatures on Monday, with some breaks in the clouds, are forecast to reach into the upper 70's to near 80, which will feel very warm when coupled with dew points well into the 60's. The humidity won't be helped by a wind which is off the water, but maintaining a warm southerly component. There is a chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm during the late afternoon, but the cold front (and best forcing to develop storms and rain) remains back to our west over the Ohio Valley. Don't get too comfortable, though, this cold front will make the forecast a bit uncertain (and unsettled once again) as we approach the middle of the week.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Monday): Partly to mostly cloudy, but feeling warmer. High temperatures near 80. Humidity won't help, in fact it will likely feel very warm out there. Short sleeves are recommended, and you may want to think about shorts, too. A chance of an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, and we should remain mostly dry...although we won't rule out a scattered storm. Low temperatures in the upper 60's..another relatively warm evening.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN...

Monday and Tuesday will offer similar forecasts, but the unsettled weather will return by Wednesday as the frontal boundary near the area is touched off once again by the mid level disturbance which will then be approaching our area. Showers and thunderstorms are a distinct possibility beginning Tuesday Night into Wednesday, and the threat of unsettled weather could continue through Thursday as the disturbance nears.

Article written by John Homenuk. Published September 26th, 2011 at 1:34am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

Radar courtesy of wunderground shows the movement and intensity of precipitation over the last hour. Click to enlarge.

A highly unsettled weather pattern has established itself across the area, and will continue it's stranglehold on  the areas weather through the weekend and into early next week. Today, though, we'll be playing a game of trying to avoid the steady rain, one which we could not win on Friday. Many areas throughout the New York City Metro and surrounding states recorded over 2 inches of rain on Friday, continuing a nearly two month long stretch of well above normal precipitation departures. The culprit this time has been a large mid and upper level system, which continues to spin well to our west over the Central United States and extending towards the Western Great Lakes. Nearer to our area, on the periphery of a large high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean, a tropical moisture feed is developed. A stalled front near the area is acting as a "highway" for disturbances to pass along, and the result has been steady rain. Luckily, today looks like it may feature a bit of a lull, as another low pressure organizes for early Sunday. High temperatures today will move back into the mid and upper 70's, and although we probably wont see much sun...the lack of moderate to heavy rain will make it more bearable. Obviously, with the unsettled pattern in place...showers are still a good bet at any point during the day. The general idea, though, is that they will be more brief and somewhat scattered.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Saturday): Mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers. Highs in the middle to upper 70's. South winds around 5 miles per hour. Still a very moist and humid airmass--it will feel very warm and sticky. Don't wear any rain gear that's too heavy..you will be too warm.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers. Low's in the middle 60's. South winds around 5 miles per hour. Continued moist and humid conditions--and again scattered showers.


HEAVY RAIN MAY RETURN SUNDAY...

Forecast models are indicating the potential for another low pressure area to develop along the stationary front near the area on Sunday. The result would be the re-development of moderate to heavy rain during much of the day. The forecast remains highly uncertain at this point, and forecast models have been prone to significant shifts over the past 24 hours. So we will keep a close eye on it as today wears on. One things for certain--the potential for heavy rain on Sunday is definitely higher than it is today (Saturday).

Article written by John Homenuk. Published September 24th, 2011 at 12:28am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing heavy rain over our area Friday Night.

First of all, happy Autumn! Today is the first day of calendar Autumn. Unfortunately, beautiful autumn weather won't be able to ring in the season. A storm system in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere is approaching our area, and although it remains to our west today, it's interaction with tropical moisture will bring the potential for heavy rain on Friday. Rain is forecast to move from south to north from the Carolinas towards our area, along a warm front and in response to a developing low pressure system. Tropical moisture in place will allow for the rain to be heavy at times, and although the heaviest rain may fall over a relatively small area (where training occurs, or rain moving over the same area for an extended period of time), most of the area will recieve showers which will be steady and heavy at times during the afternoon. Clouds will be a sure bet and it will be hard to see sun today to say the very least. The heaviest rain may actually redevelop Friday night into Saturday as another low pressure system develops near our area. The storm system will remain a significant inhibitor to pleasant weather through the weekend and possibly even into the beginning of next week. Highs today will only reach the upper 60's to low 70's, but it will feel plenty humid with the high moisture content and southerly flow.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Friday): Cloudy, with rain likely. The rain could be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's. Bring an umbrella along. You may be warm in a sweatshirt.

Tonight: Cloudy, rain likely. Heavy at times once again. Low temperatures in the 60's, with very moist air still around. Again, bring the rain gear if you're going to be out and about.

AUTUMN EQUINOX IS TODAY...

Today is the Autumn Equinox, or one of the very rare days in each year where the sun rises directly in the east and sets directly in the west. More importantly, for those who like the warm weather, yesterday was the last day of summer. For those who are looking forward to the cooler weather, we're just getting started. Times, and seasons are changing. We're diving head first into a long 6 months of cooler and wintry weather. We hope you stick around to enjoy it with us.

Article written by John Homenuk. Published September 23rd, 2011 at 1:36am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing the large storm to our west. Image depicts energy in the middle atmosphere.

The unsettled weather which our area experienced on Wednesday will likely foreshadow the weather which is on the way for the second half of the week. We can thank an approaching mid and upper level storm system for that, which will bring the potential for heavier and steadier rain and Friday and early Saturday. Until then, however, we won't have any time to prepare for the unsettled weather, as showers and clouds will be around leading up to the approach of the main system. We are currently dealing with a weak disturbance, moving from south to north around the larger system to our west, which is providing our area with clouds and showers. This weak disturbance is one very isolated "spoke" of energy related to the much bigger storm system which is back to our west over the Central United States. So, as mentioned, although it may provide our area with unsettled conditions.. the real heavy rain may not come until Friday into Saturday, when the large mid and upper level storm nears the area. Highs today, despite the clouds and potential showers, will still be warmer than the past few days..reaching into the lower to middle 70's. High dew points, clouds, and south east winds will make it feel damp, though. Scattered showers are also a good bet throughout the day.


Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers. Highs in the middle 70's, with southeast winds keeping dew points and moisture high. Showers could be briefly moderate to heavy, but should be scattered. Won't be a washout, but won't be a nice day either. Bring along an umbrella for sure.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, 40% chance of showers. Same deal, essentially. Low temperatures in the 60's, with the air still feeling damp. Might be a little too warm for a heavy sweatshirt.


A large storm system over the Central United States is forecast to shift eastward towards the Ohio Valley and Northeast by this weekend. Smaller disturbances will affect our area through the week, before the heavy rain potential arrives Friday and early Saturday. Although it's too early to pinpoint where the heaviest rain will occur, it's certainly safe at this point to say that the end of the week into the first half of the weekend does not look pretty. The potential for heavy rain amounts definitely exists as tropical moisture gets involved on Friday as well. We will keep you updated over the next few days as the system draws closer, and the forecast models begin to converge on the area of heaviest rain as well as the timing of the precipitation.