The beautiful weather which settled into the area over the weekend will make a quick exit as the new week begins, as the high pressure responsible for the fair weather and sunshine is shunted out to sea. A frontal boundary will approach the area on Monday, slow down considerably through Tuesday, and then pass through the area by Wednesday. Showers will be likely during the majority of the day on Tuesday and Wednesday, and they may possibly end with some snowflakes very late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Clouds are already on the increase throughout the area this Monday morning, and they are expected to remain here through much of the day. The chance of showers increases beginning Monday Night. Temperatures will still be warm, until the front nears the area on Wednesday. Behind the front, cooler temperatures will rapidly work into the area. Although some snow flakes are possible away from the city to end the storm system on Wednesday Night/Thursday, no accumulations are expected. A few forecast models are showing the potential for a few slushy inches away from the city, but that remains an outlier solution at this time. Pictured right: NAM model showing showers affecting the area Monday Night into Tuesday.


Monday: Cloudy, with a high near 60. South winds around 10 miles per hour.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Overnight low near 53. South wind near 10 miles per hour.

Tuesday: Cloudy with showers likely. High near 60.  South winds around 10 miles per hour.

 Article written by JH. Published December 5th, 2011 at 2:40am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

Temperatures this holiday weekend soared several degrees above normal, as a ridge of high pressure established itself over the area. Unseasonably warm air settled in place and stayed there for a good part of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. In fact, record high temperatures were tied or broken in more than three reporting stations throughout the area on Saturday. For the sake of example, Newark reached the 68 degree mark tying the old record which was previously set in 1979. Near-70 degree temperatures are fairly unheard of this time of year. The weather to start this work week will begin right where the weekend left off, with temperatures on Monday forecast to once again reach into the middle 60's throughout the area. However, a large and powerful storm system is taking shape over the Central United States. This storm system will shift northeastward, bringing with it an unusual set of events. This storm system is defined throughout the meteorological community as a "cutoff trough", meaning the trough/disturbance itself cuts off from the jet stream. The cold air will stay with the system as it cuts off, meaning that as it moves up the coast, temperatures in our area will (for a time) be warmer than temperatures to our south over the Mid-Atlantic. Eventually, the storm will bring a cold front through the entire northeast. Showers and a period of heavy rain are likely Tuesday and Tuesday Night. In the image to the right, you can see the NAM Model showing the disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere (top, red and purple colors detail atmospheric vorticity)..and at the surface (bottom, shaded colors are precipitation and contour lines are temperatures at 850mb in the atmosphere). 


Today (Monday): Partly sunny, with a high near 64. There could be some periods of fog in the morning. Winds turning southwest around 10 miles per hour.

Monday Night: Increasing clouds, with a low around 51. Areas of fog developing after 2am. Southwest winds around 5 miles per hour.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, then rain likely after 2pm. High near 65. The rain may be heavy at times. East winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of 0.10" to 0.25" possible.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with rain likely. Low near 50. The rain may be heavy at times. East-southeast winds 10 to 15 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of 0.30" to 0.50" possible.

Article written by JH. Published November 28th, 2011 at 1:20am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

An unsettled atmospheric pattern has taken hold of the area early this week, and will continue to be in place through around Wednesday evening. Although the main storm system won't arrive until Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning, numerous small disturbances in the atmosphere will provide a chance of showers on Monday, and will likely keep clouds around as well. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are only expected to reach into the 50's for highs, as the surface winds turn east off the Atlantic waters. In addition to keeping temperatures down, this flow of air combined with the unsettled pattern in the atmosphere will keep plenty of clouds around through the middle of the week as well. The steady rain will likely wait, as we mentioned, until later Tuesday Night through Wednesday, when a strong low pressure area approaches from our south and west. This low pressure will traverse northeast through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast, before redeveloping somewhere off the coast. The presence of strong lift for precipitation as the storm passes will set the stage for moderate to heavy rain at times overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. The storm is expected to wrap up by Wednesday afternoon, with the potential for an isolated rain or snow shower thereafter. In the image to our right, we can see the NAM model showing the weak atmospheric disturbance over our area today, and the strong disturbance over the Plains heading in our direction (both circled in yellow).

Today (Monday): Increasing clouds, with a 30% chance of rain. High near 54. New rainfall amounts of less than 0.10" possible.

Monday Night: Cloudy, with a chance of rain. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Overnight low near 45. New rainfall amounts of near 0.10" possible.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of rain. High near 53. New rainfall amounts of 0.10" to 0.25" possible. 


Over time, you've probably heard us mention the term "South-west flow event" or "SWFE" as a way of defining a winter storm or type of system. This has become somewhat loosely defined, but essentially describes the type of storm system we're dealing with this coming Tuesday into Wednesday. On the image above, at the top of this post, you'll see the strong atmospheric disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere, which at the time of the image is situated over the Plains states. This energy is ejecting northeastward, towards the Ohio Valley. As it does so, you'll also notice a ridge building ahead of this feature (black lines buckling ahead of it). This ridge is developing as a result of the southwest flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere, which is driving the system northeastward.

This southwest flow can develop through the mid, and even low levels of the atmosphere. During the winter, these systems can cause forecast nightmares. Part of the problem develops when there is a strong surface high near our area at the time of a south-west flow events approach. Imagine the strong surface high, keeping cold winter-like air at the very surface of the atmosphere, while a south-west flow event brings warm air into the levels above it. This often results in sleet, which forms as snowflakes form in the upper atmosphere, melt in the middle atmosphere (as a result of warm temperatures from the south-west flow) and then re-freeze at the cold surface.

Luckily for us, this south-west flow event is occurring just a few weeks before we typically have a winter-like cold airmass in place. This time, we don't have to worry about precipitation-type and changeovers. We'll leave that problem to our neighbors to the north over Central New England. Something tells me, though, we'll be revisiting this problem sooner than later.


Article written by JH. Published November 21st, 2011 at 11:34am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming week and holiday, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM model showing low pressure along a front near our area.

The warmth we have experienced over the past several days has been anomalous for this time of year (mid-november) with highs nearing the 70 degree mark for two consecutive days. However, a frontal boundary approaching the region will set the stage for an unsettled middle of the week, and then a drop in temperatures by Friday. Essentially, a reminder that it is in fact the middle of November. The airmass behind the front is expected to be quite cool (albeit transient), with high temperatures only scraping 50 on Thursday and Friday. That said, we have a frontal boundary near the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the potential for showers will exist on both days. Disturbances in the middle of the atmosphere will force the development of weak low pressures along the front, driving areas of precipitation from southwest to northeast from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. The first of these is forecast to occur Tuesday Night into Wednesday, and the second early Thursday...both bringing the potential for steady rain. Showery weather will continue otherwise. By Thursday and Friday, we will see more sun..but as mentioned, a fresh new canadian airmass will be in place--and it will be feeling much more like mid November.


Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers. High near 64. New rainfall near 0.10" possible.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of rain. Overnight low near 53. New rainfall between 0.10" and 0.25" possible.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of rain. High near 60. New rainfall of 0.10" to 0.25" possible.

Article written by JH. Published November 15th, 2011 at 11:27am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing low pressure to our east on Thursday, and a new cooler airmass behind it

The trend of temperatures slowly rising each day will reach a plateau of sorts on Wednesday, as the high pressure and mid level ridge responsible for the warming begin to get shunted to our east. The culprit is a rather strong mid level disturbance to our west-northwest, which will make it's move towards the Great Lakes on Wednesday into Thursday. The strength and speed of the system will cause a breakdown in high pressure and the ridge of fair/warm weather in the atmosphere. A cold front will eventually sweep towards the region on Thursday. Luckily, it looks like our area will avoid heavy rain with this disturbance. The system is forecast to interact with the remnants (or tropical moisture) of Tropical Storm Sean well out in the Atlantic Ocean, but not until it's farther east of our area. The result will be the potential for some moderately heavy rains over Southern New England--our area should be spared the heavy stuff, although a brief period of heavy rain is possible across Long Island. Otherwise, spotty showers will be the only introduction to the new airmass that is coming this weekend. Prior to this, however, we will salvage one more day on Wednesday. Prior to the breakdown, the warm airmass will still be in place, and high temperatures on Wednesday will once again reach into the middle 60's. Enjoy it while you can!


Today (Wednesday): Partly sunny. High near 66. Southeast winds 5 miles per hour. The last warm day of the week before an approaching cold front. Take it all in!

Wednesday Night: Increasing clouds, with a 30% chance of showers.. Low near 52. Southeast winds 5 miles per hour.

For full forecast details, including our brand new zone forecast capabilities, click here. You can select your exact location on a map, and view a detailed forecast for your area. These forecasts are updated at least twice daily. To provide feedback on this new product, please click here. 

Article written by JH. Published November 9th, 2011 at 12:30am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing low pressure along a front near the area on Thursday afternoon.

A strong gradient in the mid levels of the atmosphere will develop across the Northeast on Thursday , and the gradient will eventually extend down towards the surface in the form of a well defined frontal boundary, which will settle near the area beginning Thursday morning and afternoon. This frontal boundary will serve as a "highway" for low pressure and moderate to heavy precipitation to develop at the surface, as a strong disturbance moves over the boundary in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Such a development will bring a threat of moderate to heavy precipitation to the forecast area, beginning on Thursday and continuing through Thursday evening. The precipitation looks to be somewhat spotty early, as mentioned above, so it won't be a deluge for your morning commute. However, by mid-morning the precipitation intensity should pick up, and it will continue on and off throughout the remainder of the day. Making the situation more complicated is the intrusion of significant cold air which is expected as the storm passes and the front sags south. This will bring colder temperatures into the system on Thursday evening, and the potential would exist for some frozen precipitation  in the higher elevations of the distant interior. The snow would be short lived and will stay away from the coast and the city as well as the immediate suburbs. The official forecast is below...


Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with rain likely. High near 55. West winds around 5 miles per hour. A dreary and chilly day.


Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. The showers could end as snow showers far north and west and in higher elevations. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Low near 38. Cooler inland. West winds 5 miles per hour. 


WILD WEEKEND? This weekend looks to provide more dramatics, as the boundary settles offshore. Forecast models are indicative of the development of a low pressure system along this front, which could track north and then northeast up the East Coast. Such a track could (emphasis on could) bring the threat for frozen precipitation right back into the picture on Saturday, with the potential for snow, once again, away from the coast. However, the forecast models have been highly inconsistent, and it's going to take some time to iron out the exact track of the system. Some forecast models have the storm missing completely out to sea. Needless to say, we're watching it very closely. Stay with us for more details as the week continues. 

Article written by JH. Published October 27th, 2011 at 2:20am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the end of the week into the weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM model showing high temps in the 60's today (Wednesday).

The pleasant weather of the beginning of the week will become somewhat of a distant memory as we approach Wednesday, and continue through Thursday. A strong gradient in the mid levels of the atmosphere will develop across the Northeast by the end of the week, and the gradient will eventually extend down towards the surface in the form of a well defined frontal boundary, which will settle near the area by Thursday morning. This frontal boundary will serve as a "highway" for low pressure and moderate to heavy precipitation to develop at the surface, as a strong disturbance moves over the boundary in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Such a development will bring a threat of moderate to heavy precipitation to the forecast area, beginning on Thursday and continuing through Thursday evening. However, today (Wednesday) looks to be salvaged, with clouds in and out and temperatures in the lower 60's. The threat of precipitation should hold off until the evening hours, and even then it will be just spotty showers. The heavy precipitation won't begin until Thursday.

ECMWF model showing potential significant coastal storm on Saturday. Notice cold air being drawn into the storm. Courtesy: Stormvista.com

DUAL EVENTS MAY BRING A SURPRISE: As mentioned earlier, the weather will take an unsettled turn beginning on Thursday. The initial culprit will be a gradient in the mid levels of the atmosphere. At the surface, the gradient will become well defined as a frontal boundary settles near the area. A wave of low pressure will ride along this front, tracking just south of Long Island. Making the situation more complicated is the intrusion of significant cold air which is expected as the storm passes and the front sags south. This will bring colder temperatures into the system on Thursday, and the potential would exist for some frozen precipitation (yes, we're serious) in the higher elevations and the distant interior. The snowfall would be short lived and is likely to say away from the coast and the city, but we can't rule out a few flakes in the immediate suburbs and especially interior/higher elevations. 


This weekend looks to provide more dramatics, as the boundary settles offshore. Forecast models are indicative of the development of a low pressure system along this front, which could track north and then northeast up the East Coast. Such a track could (emphasis on could) bring the threat for frozen precipitation right back into the picture on Saturday, with the potential for snow, once again, away from the coast. However, the forecast models have been highly inconsistent, and it's going to take some time to iron out the exact track of the system. Some forecast models have the storm missing completely out to sea. Needless to say, we're watching it very closely. Stay with us for more details as the week continues. 


Article written by JH. Published October 26th, 2011 at 1:26am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing weak high pressure keeping the weather fair on Tuesday.

A ridge of high pressure in the mid levels of the atmosphere is building in this morning, and will continue to do so throughout the day on Tuesday. The result will be pleasant weather, with clear skies and high temperatures in the low 60's. Winds will be out of the northwest behind a weak cold front that passed the area late Monday Night into Tuesday morning. The winds could be a bit breezy and gusty, mostly during the afternoon. It's a result of what is technically called "cold air advection" or "CAA". Behind a cold front, northwest or west winds usher in a new and cooler airmass, and the advection of this air behind a temperature boundary can often bring some moderate wind gusts. Tuesday will be no different. Low temperatures overnight Tuesday Night into early Wednesday Morning will likely dip into the middle 40's once again, as clear skies and light winds will allow for favorable radiational cooling conditions. However, by early Wednesday morning (possibly even the pre-dawn hours) clouds will begin to increase, owing to a system developing to the west of our area. This system looks to provide a very complicated scenario during the second half of the week. Keep reading for all of the details.

THE FORECAST...
Today (Tuesday): Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with increasing clouds late. Low near 48. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

LATE WEEK EVENT COULD PROVE TROUBLESOME (AND CHILLY):

NAM Model showing potential for some frozen precip in the interior Thursday evening. Notice the surface temps in the 30's(left) and moderate precip (right) Also notice warmer temps near the coast & city.

 The pleasant weather of the beginning of the week will become somewhat of a distant memory as we approach Wednesday, and continue through Thursday. A strong gradient in the mid levels of the atmosphere will develop across the Northeast by the end of the week, and the gradient will eventually extend down towards the surface in the form of a well defined frontal boundary, which will settle near the area by Thursday morning. This frontal boundary will serve as a "highway" for low pressure and moderate to heavy precipitation to develop at the surface, as a strong disturbance moves over the boundary in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Such a development would most certainly bring a threat of moderate to heavy precipitation to the forecast area, beginning on Thursday and continuing through Thursday evening. 


Making the situation more complicated is the intrusion of significant cold air which is expected behind the cold front. This will bring colder temperatures into the system on Thursday, and the potential would exist for some frozen precipitation (yes, we're serious) in the higher elevations and the distant interior. Such an event would be isolated and likely confined to the higher elevations, but it's definitely worth mentioning. To be clear, we aren't expecting anything frozen in the city or immediate suburbs, but if you live in Northwest NJ or the higher elevations of Connecticut or Southeast New York, you may want to keep a very close eye on this system for the potential for snow as the system winds down Thursday Night. 


Either way, behind the front, we're expecting some of the coldest air so far this fall. This weekend looks to provide more dramatics, as the boundary settles offshore. Forecast models are beginning to hint at the potential for a nor'easter developing along the front on Saturday. We'll keep you updated during the week as we get a better idea of what's going to transpire.


Article written by JH. Published October 25th, 2011 at 12:04am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing a strong low pressure over the Northeast on Wednesday.

The week began with a beautiful fall day on Monday, and will likely continue with much of the same today on Tuesday. High pressure which is built in to our south and east can be thanked for this (and the pleasant weather since this weekend), but it won't be able to hang on for long. In fact, it's already losing it's grip on the weather pattern over the area as tropical moisture gathers in the Gulf of Mexico and prepares to interact with a northern stream trough. However, today looks to be another spectacular fall day with mostly sunny skies throughout the morning and afternoon. Temperatures, under the full sun, will be able to rise into the middle 60's in a very similar fashion to Monday. Winds, this time around, will be less gusty and even less breezy than they have been the past three days. The pressure gradient which caused the winds is non-existent during the day today. Starting this afternoon and evening, high clouds will begin to build in and we may lose the sun during the afternoon. Clouds will lower by Tuesday evening and a chance for showers will turn into a good chance of rain by overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.


Today (Tuesday): Partly sunny. Increasing clouds late. High near 68. West winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. A beautiful fall day--but enjoy it, as the middle of the week will turn soggy.

Tonight: Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy. A chance of showers early, then rain likely overnight.  Low near 57. East winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

MID WEEK WEATHER TAKES AN OMINOUS TURN: An extremely large disturbance in the atmosphere develops over the Central US and moves eastward beginning early this week, forcing the development of a strong surface low. Thereafter, the surface low is forecast to move northward up and along the East Coast while interacting with plentiful tropical moisture. Forecast models are a bit inconsistent, so it's too early to tell exactly when or where the heaviest precipitation could fall, but the potential exists for a widespread moderate to heavy rain event on Wednesday throughout the area. We will keep you posted!

Article written by JH. Published October 18th, 2011 at 12:40am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

GFS Model showing the pressure gradient over our area on Sunday, with a high to our south and low to our north.

The last few weeks have certainly been up and down to say the least. A brief recap would bring up topics  such as unseasonable heat, with records being broken. Or maybe even an all time record for precipitation in the past month. If you dig deeper, you could find the very cool nights we had over three weeks ago where some areas reached as low as the middle 30's in the interior. Still, autumn has a way of balancing most things out and even in the most dramatic swings in sensible weather, there are days when things seem just right. Sunday should be one of those days. A high pressure will remain in control, as the low pressure over Eastern Canada moves farther north away from the area. This low pressure was partially responsible for the very strong fair-weather winds we experienced on Saturday, as it's lowering pressure combined with the building high pressure created a gradient over our area and provided a good setup for strong wind gusts. The winds could still be breezy on Sunday, but will certainly be less of an issue than they were on Saturday. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to top out in the middle 60's, with some clouds moving in later in the evening. 

NAM Model showing low pressure moving near our area Thursday.

The wonderfully warm weather of the weekend now a distant memory, showers and cool conditions have taken a stranglehold on the areas weather and will continue to do so through the end of the week. The culprit is a broad disturbance in the middle of the atmosphere, which will continue to spin near the area through Friday afternoon. Individual pertubations in the flow of the atmosphere (smaller disturbances) will move up the east coast on Thursday, causing the development of showers with areas of embedded moderate to heavy rain. The rain is not expected to be overly widespread in it's heavy nature, but the showers will definitely make for a damp, cool, and wet forecast. Our area avoided much of the more steady shower activity on Wednesday, but Thursday looks to be a different story. The showers and poor conditions are forecast to continue through Friday morning, when the system begins to lift north of the region. Thereafter, clearing is forecast through Friday with winds becoming gusty out of the west on Friday night into Saturday. That being said, despite the winds, most will be happy to see the sun after the unsettled weather this week will have provided.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers. The rain may be moderate to heavy at times. East/northeast winds off the water will keep the air feeling damp. High temperatures in the middle 60's.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. Chance of precipitation is 80%.  The showers could be moderate to heavy at times. East/southeast winds continuing to keep the air cool and damp. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60's.

Article written by JH. Published October 13th, 2011 at 12:37am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model showing high pressure in control later this week.

The upper level low is finally on it's way out. No, seriously, this time it's actually beginning to shift away from the area. It's shifting east/northeast in a weakness in the atmospheric pattern, which up until this point has acted as a "block", and allowed for the system to spin stagnant over the Central and Eastern US over the past two weeks. Today, the system is shifting east and will only scrape our area with the potential for some showers and clouds. Definitely not the most pleasant day, but temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than they were on Monday. Additionally, most of the hope lies in the weather which is in the future--as the middle and end of the week look to feature some of the most pleasant conditions we've seen since two weeks ago. We have to get through today first, though, and the story will be much of the same. High temperatures in the lower to middle 60's, with damp winds and a chance of showers. Skies will be partly cloudy at times, but will cloud up rapidly during the afternoon in the presence of scattered showers.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Tuesday): Partly to mostly cloudy, high temperatures in the lower to middle 60's. Chance of showers 30%. Northwest winds around 10 miles per hour. Still feeling cool and damp--long sleeves a good idea. May want to bring an umbrella along as scattered showers are expected this afternoon.

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Temperatures dropping once again into the lower to middle 50's in the city, and 40's inland. Bring a jacket or sweatshirt for sure. Chance of precipitation is 30% before midnight, gradually decreasing thereafter.

Article written by JH. Published October 4th, 2011 at 1:09am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing high temps barely scraping 60 degrees today.

Before we began our forecast two weeks ago, we included the possibility of an upper level system becoming "stagnant" over the United States. Stagnant probably is a bit of an understatement for the amount of persistence this upper level storm system. The system has spun over the Central US for a good part of the last two weeks, and it's also provided our area with a tremendous amount of unsettled weather in that time frame. Meanwhile, over the past week, it has begun it's slow shift eastward towards our area. The result has been (surprise!) continued unsettled weather, with showers and poor conditions, as well as slowly declining temperatures. All of that being said, we have good news to bring. By the middle of this week, the storm system is going to begin ejecting northeast away from the area, and fair weather is expected from Wednesday onward. Today is also forecast to be a decent day--with partly cloudy skies and only isolated showers. High temperatures will barely scrape 60 with a cool and damp feel to the air, but the lack of rain and some sunshine should make it feel pleasant. Enjoy it, because Tuesday should sandwich the two pleasant days of the week with showery weather.


THE FORECAST...

Today (Monday): Partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers. The day should be mostly pleasant, with clouds in and out. Yet, with the storm system still spinning overhead, showers could make their appearance once again in the afternoon. High temperatures only scraping 60, near 62 in the city. Cooler inland and near the coast. Winds south and southeast around 10 miles per hour. Sweatshirt? Sounds like a good idea.

Tonight: Becoming mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers. The showers could be somewhat more widespread than they were during the day and on Sunday. Temperatures falling into the 40's inland and near 50 in the city. Definitely bring a sweatshirt or jacket along. It'll be a raw night.


Article written by JH. Published October 3rd, 2011 at 12:31am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing rain  to our west today over Central Pennsylvania, while our area remains dry.

The forecast hasn't changed much over the past week and a half, as each day as offered mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers throughout the day. Some days have featured heavier rain, some have featured just showery activity. Sunday looks to be no different, as the stagnant disturbance in the atmosphere responsible for this mess over the last week or more is still moving near the area. The good news is that despite the threat for showers early, all forecast models indicate a break in the action associated with a dry slot in the middle of the atmosphere (less moisture to support rain and clouds). This break is forecast to occur after the late morning hours and continue through the early afternoon, before some showers re-enter the forecast during the later afternoon. Timing these breaks is extremely difficult, but we figured it would be worth a mention considering how dreary the weather has been of late. The main deal with Sunday will be the temperatures, which will barely scrape into the low 60's. The northerly winds will keep it feeling cool, raw, and damp.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Sunday): Mostly cloudy early, with a chance of showers. Then becoming partly cloudy, with a chance of showers. High near 64. Northeast wind around 10 miles per hour. Bring a long sleeved shirt or a sweatshirt--it's going to be feeling chilly out there.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Low near 50--damp and cool. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 miles per hour. Long sleeved shirts or sweatshirts are recommended once again.

ALDS GAME 2 FORECAST....

The two-day extravaganza that was Game 1 now a distant memory, and one Yankees win later, we look ahead towards Game 2 with a better forecast. The disturbance near the area will calm down a bit on Sunday, as it continues spinning just to our west. Although a chance of isolated to scattered showers exists on Sunday, there's a growing possibility that a dry slot (lack of moisture to produce clouds and rain) in the atmosphere could enter the area just before game time. This means we may actually see the sun during the game (amazing, we know). Stay here through the day and we'll keep you as updated as we can.

Article written by JH. Published October 2nd, 2011 at 1:36am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend and upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

Tarp covers a rain-soaked Yankee Stadium on Friday evening.

September closed as a continuation of August, which remained one of the wettest periods in New York City's recorded history. October won't begin any differently, as a storm system off the coast re-develops through the early morning hours...bringing moderate to heavy rain through the area. The rain is expected to continue, albeit more showery, through the afternoon. There may be a break in the action during the early afternoon, but by evening the showers will be around again. The weather Friday night caused disruption to the ALDS Game 1, which was postponed and rescheduled for tonight at 8:37pm. Unfortunately, it looks as if the Yankees will be battling the rain once again. This certainly won't go over well with those who are returning to the game to see the final innings (the game is being started where it was suspended, in the bottom of the 2nd inning and tied at 1). The rain looks to be more showery in nature than it was on Friday, but it won't be pleasant to say the least. Temperatures by evening will also be cooler than they were on Friday, and the rain and breeze will make it feel raw.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Saturday): Mostly cloudy, with rain likely in the morning. Then mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers through the evening. High temperatures near 66. North winds around 10 miles per hour--feeling damp and dreary. Chance of precipitation 100% early, 50% late.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Low temperatures falling into the lower 50's. North winds continued around 10 miles per hour.

FALL FOLIAGE UPDATE...

The progress of the yearly Fall Foliage and leaf drop continues to gain steam as the season continues to progress, but the overall color change throughout the Northeast United States remains well behind that of last year. Low color has only barely begun in Northwest New Jersey, and the color remains below the scale of color change elsewhere. Meanwhile, to our north over New England, low to moderate color has been observed over the mountains of New York State, Vermont, and New Hampshire and extending into Maine. Our color change usually becomes dramatic, in this part of the country, around the first weekend of October. So although we are running behind schedule, it's nothing too drastic. We should begin to see low to moderate color change within a week. The rain and cooler temperatures will definitely help.

NAM model forecasting a line of showers and storms near the area around 8:00pm today.

A persistent and stagnant storm in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere has finally made it's way towards the area, and it brought a cold front through the region on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms were widespread throughout the day, even becoming strong to severe during the afternoon. Areas of Northeast New Jersey experienced 0.88" hail and severe, damaging winds...which toppled trees and caused damage in Eastern Bergen County. This front has since passed the area, but the system is beginning it's interaction with another storm to it's north. As the two "phase" (meteorological term for interact/become one), another low pressure area will come up the east coast Saturday morning. The trouble in Fridays forecast is trying to time the re-development of showers and storms, and see if we can squeak out a dry day to close out the week. Remaining totally dry seems somewhat unlikely, but during the afternoon temperatures should reach into the middle to upper 70's with some sun. Afterwards, showers and storms are forecast to develop...scattered at first...by early evening, and then become more widespread by early Saturday morning

THE FORECAST..

Today (Friday): Partly cloudy early, with a chance isolated of showers and thunderstorms. Then becoming mostly cloudy by evening, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. High near 78. South-southwest winds around 10 miles per hour. It will feel pretty warm during the afternoon--so don't be fooled by the chance of showers..if you're heading out, don't wear anything too heavy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures falling to near 60 overnight, with a westerly breeze developing. Definitely bring the rain gear in case, and dress appropriately as temperatures will feel pretty cool. Chance of precipitation is 50%

ALDS GAME 1 FORECAST...

The New York Yankees are scheduled to play the first game of the American League Division Series tonight, squaring off against the Detroit Tigers at 8:37pm at Yankee Stadium. Showers and thunderstorms, albiet scattered, are in the forecast. For the very latest on the development of showers and storms as the game approaches, check our latest forecast for the game (both game 1 and 2). Also, be sure to check our Twitter Feed for up to the minute updates.

Article written by JH. Published September 30th, 2011 at 12:01am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

In case you haven't heard yet, the New York Yankees are gearing up for the 2011 American League  Division Series which will be played beginning this Friday in the Bronx. During the stretch of the regular season the Yankees have experienced a tremendous amount of weather related delays, game impacts, and postponements. Ultimately, these weather related impacts (although seemingly small at the time), have had impacts on the team during the season including doubleheaders and shortened/adjusted travel time. All of that said, Autumn is what we like to call a "transition season" here in New York City. The pattern is changing, and the weather can abruptly change as well. This time of year often brings the potential for some nasty weather (remember the Angels wearing the face masks to keep warm in the 2009 ALCS?....yeah), and it's our job to keep you updated on what's happening. Whether you're headed out to the stadium, expected to be out and about that night, or simply looking to check up to see if there's any problems expected, this is your place to be. 


The bad news, at the current time, is that the atmosphere looks to be unsettled during the first two games at Yankee Stadium. The details are below...


THE FORECAST...
To keep it simple, there are two cold fronts that are forecast to pass the area. The first is passing through Thursday evening. There could be a period of heavy rain with this front. Behind it, winds will kick up a bit out of the south through Friday afternoon. The second front will be near the area around game time. It is hard to say at this time whether or not this front will produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. It may very well pass the area without much notice, or it may touch off storms that could impact the area around the 830pm start time. One thing working in our direction: moisture in the atmosphere will be less, because of the first front passing in the morning. We will be watching carefully!




The airmass will be much cooler by the time Game 2 of the ALDS rolls around on Saturday. There is a chance, again, for scattered showers. The front will be to the east of the area, but the atmosphere will still be unstable and unsettled. This will be a situation where we will have to watch carefully as the day goes on to see what's developing. By the latter half of the evening (later in the game), the air will be cooler, and temperatures by evening should fall into the 50's. Northwest winds, and a cool high pressure building in, will make it feel like October baseball for sure. 

Storm Prediction Center's probability of a severe wind gust within 25 miles of a point on Thursday. Full outlook

The mid level disturbance which caused over a weeks worth of unsettled weather is finally nearing the area, and it's bringing a threat of thunderstorms with it. Thursday could start off relatively decent, although overnight and early morning showers will make it feel less than ideal, the rain will not be heavy (at least early). By the early afternoon, our area will be in a small "warm sector" (the area ahead of a cold front). Temperatures are forecast to increase into the middle to possibly upper 70's in some areas during the early and mid part of the afternoon. This is thanks to southerly winds and the aforementioned warm sector, with the cold front our west. As the mid level disturbance nears our area, and pushes the cold front in our direction, the fronts interaction with this warmer, more humid, and slightly unstable air will trigger the development of thunderstorms. Some could be strong, with heavy rain...lightning and thunder, as well as the possibility for some strong winds. The storms should move from west to east through around 9pm, and will be gone by the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a "5% risk" for severe thunderstorms today. Please see their latest forecast for more information.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy early, with showers likely. Then becoming partly cloudy in the early afternoon, followed by showers and thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon. Some storms may be strong with heavy rain and strong winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. High near 76. South winds 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms early, then clearing. Partly cloudy, with a low near 56. Winds west-southeast at 10 miles per hour. Definitely bring along the long sleeves if you're going to be and about Thursday night. It will feel cooler than the past few.

LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL...

Unsettled weather has, generally (sans the first two days of the week), plagued our area over the past week or more. The threat of unsettled weather could continue through Thursday as the main atmospheric disturbance nears. That said, most forecast models have a cold front clearing the area by Friday, which should offer clearing skies for Game 1 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium. There is a chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm as the disturbance begins to exit the area (won't quite be gone by Friday). We'll have a full forecast for the game beginning later tonight, so stay tuned! 


Article written by JH. Published September 29th, 2011 at 1:53am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.