NAM Model showing high pressure built in over the area this week.

Surface high pressure will remain wedged over our forecast area through Wednesday so it's safe to say that Tuesday should be a fabulous day. The dry weather and plentiful sun will almost make the weather a non-factor for those who are going about their typically busy Tuesday afternoon. The morning will start out chilly -- but not as chilly as the past several nights -- so expect temperatures in the upper 30's and lower 40's in the early morning. By afternoon, however, warmer temperatures in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere along with plenty of sun will allow for temperatures to rise to well over 60 degrees throughout most of the area. West winds should still be noticeable, but not breezy, around 5 to 10 miles per hour. By the later afternoon, temperatures will fall off (quicker than usual, now, with an earlier afternoon sunset) and drop once again into the  40's. However, Tuesday Night will be a few degrees warmer than the past several nights, a trend which will be becoming more noticeable as the week goes on. The airmass, after all, is modifying over the region as it is losing it's Canadian cold air source as it settles near our area.

The week ahead looks to feature moderating temperatures through Wednesday, before a cold front nears our area on Thursday. We aren't expecting heavy precipitation with this front--in fact it may be very spotty. Behind the front, a new and fresh cold airmass will move in for the weekend...with low and high temperatures probably averaging slightly below seasonal normals.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Tuesday): Sunny, with highs in the mid 60's. Light west winds around 5 to 10 miles per hour. Feeling warmer than the past several days---beautifully comfortable outside.

Tonight: Clear, lows in the mid to upper 40's in the city and upper 30's to mid 40's inland. Light west winds. Temperatures feeling a bit warmer than the past several nights.

Wednesday: Sunny, with highs in the mid 60's. Absolutely terrific autumn day---winds will be light from the southwest. Some clouds building by evening.

Article written by JH. Published November 6th, 2011 at 10:26pm. Updated November 7th, 2011 at 11:05pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM model showing high pressure dominating the weather into the weekend.

Split between two mid level disturbances, our area will be able to enjoy the benefits of high pressure through the end of the week. This high pressure will actually strengthen over the weekend, so we expect much of the same through Sunday. Today will feature high temperatures near 60 or in the low 60's in some warmer spots. These warmer temperatures will come between two disturbances which, although not expected to provide precipitation or unsettled weather, will still bring this warm weather to a bit of a halt. As a thermal boundary associated with these disturbances crosses the area later Thursday into early Friday, cooler air will move back into the picture. Highs on Friday and Saturday will once again top out in the 50's, despite the warmer tease on Thursday afternoon. Luckily, clouds don't seem to be a significant factor in the forecast. Plenty of sun will be present throughout the area during the end of this week into the weekend, which will certainly make things more pleasant. Overnight low temperatures will still be cold, though...in the upper 30's to lower 40's in the city and lower 30's inland (20's in the colder spots).


THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): Mostly sunny and a bit warmer, highs near 60. Light southwest winds and plenty of sun, especially early. Nothing to complain about here.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with lows in the 40's in the city and 30's inland. West winds getting a tiny bit breezy, around 10 miles per hour, and turning north.

Article written by JH. Published November 3rd, 2011 at 2:40am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

GFS Model showing the pressure gradient over our area on Sunday, with a high to our south and low to our north.

The last few weeks have certainly been up and down to say the least. A brief recap would bring up topics  such as unseasonable heat, with records being broken. Or maybe even an all time record for precipitation in the past month. If you dig deeper, you could find the very cool nights we had over three weeks ago where some areas reached as low as the middle 30's in the interior. Still, autumn has a way of balancing most things out and even in the most dramatic swings in sensible weather, there are days when things seem just right. Sunday should be one of those days. A high pressure will remain in control, as the low pressure over Eastern Canada moves farther north away from the area. This low pressure was partially responsible for the very strong fair-weather winds we experienced on Saturday, as it's lowering pressure combined with the building high pressure created a gradient over our area and provided a good setup for strong wind gusts. The winds could still be breezy on Sunday, but will certainly be less of an issue than they were on Saturday. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to top out in the middle 60's, with some clouds moving in later in the evening. 

NAM Model showing westerly winds of over 20 knots this afternoon (~25mph).

A very strong pressure gradient across the forecast area will be the trigger for blustery and gusty fair weather winds, which will be the main weather story today. The low pressure system that impacted our area with numerous showers and thunderstorms (some strong) is now passing well to our north over Eastern Canada, and is strengthening. Meanwhile, a high pressure is building in to our south over the Tennessee Valley and extending into the Southeast United States. The result is a strong gradient between the two, and winds will kick up this afternoon as a result of the very tight gradient. In addition, cold air advection (CAA, or the movement of cooler air behind a low pressure system) has begun this morning which will allow westerly winds to strengthen further. Wind gusts over 40 miles per hour are possible this afternoon. The National Weather Service has issued Wind Advisories for portions of the forecast area, for the isolated potential of these winds becoming damaging if any loose objects are blown around or any dead/non stable trees can be toppled. High temperatures today will top out in the lower to middle 60's, but the strong winds will keep it feeling brisk and cool.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Saturday): Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Windy. Wind gusts may exceed 45 miles per hour at times. Otherwise, west winds 20 to 30 miles per hour.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low near 50. Windy early, with west winds 15 to 25 miles per hour. Wind gusts may exceed 35 miles per hour. The wind should calm overnight.


Article written by JH. Published October 15th, 2011 at 10:51am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

GFS model showing a ridge of high pressure over the Eastern US

A ridge of high pressure has taken hold of the weather pattern over the area, and over the next few days we will experience continued fair conditions. In fact, temperatures could warm steadily over the next few days as well, with high temperatures approaching 80 degrees in the usual warm locations by the tail end of this weekend. However, before then, temperatures will remain slightly below seasonal averages for high temperatures today on Thursday. Despite the high pressure and fair weather, the atmosphere is still recovering from the big storm system which provided our area with unsettled weather for two weeks. Until this recovery occurs, temperatures will still only top out in the 60's to near 70. Today is forecast to be one of the cooler days, with high temperatures only reaching into the middle 60's. There will be a northwest breeze, but nothing near the windy conditions we experienced on Wednesday. By evening, during Game 5 of the ALDS in the Bronx (See the forecast below), clear skies and cool temperatures in the 50's are forecast.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Light north/northwest winds and low dew points will have the air feeling crisp and fresh. Enjoy it!

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low near 51. Another cool night with light northerly winds. A beautiful fall evening for sure.




Game 5 of the American League Division Series will be played in the Bronx on Thursday Night, as the Yankees look to advance to the Championship Series for the third consecutive year. Weather has been a significant inhibitor to games thus far during this series--but we have no problems with this forecast. Clear skies, temperatures near 60 around game time. Northwest winds, with temperatures falling into the 50's during the game. It's going to be a crystal clear, crisp October air in place for what promises to be a great night in the Bronx. Go Yankees. For updates on the forecast, check out our Twitter account. 


Article written by JH. Published October 6th, 2011 at 12:53am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing the low pressure out of the picture, and high pressure building in this week.

Stagnant, slow moving, stalled, blocked, persistent. Those are all words which we have used to describe the upper level low pressure system which sat near or over our area for a good part of the past two or more weeks. Finally, we have only one word to use starting Wednesday: Gone. The storm system is on it's way east of New England, on the move towards a weakness in the pattern which will (finally) allow it to escape to the Atlantic. A ridge and high pressure will then build into the area starting today and continuing through Friday, and not only will the weather be fair, but temperatures will rise towards average and above average as we approach the weekend. In fact, high temperatures could again be approaching 80 degrees by the tail end of the weekend. Still, lets not get too far ahead of ourselves just yet. Today looks to be a gorgeous day, with high temperatures near 70 and mostly sunny skies. A northwesterly breeze and low dew points will have the air feeling brisk, clean, and new, a big change from the past few weeks. We know everybody will be enjoying it!