NAM Model showing low pressure to our east on Thursday, and a new cooler airmass behind it

The trend of temperatures slowly rising each day will reach a plateau of sorts on Wednesday, as the high pressure and mid level ridge responsible for the warming begin to get shunted to our east. The culprit is a rather strong mid level disturbance to our west-northwest, which will make it's move towards the Great Lakes on Wednesday into Thursday. The strength and speed of the system will cause a breakdown in high pressure and the ridge of fair/warm weather in the atmosphere. A cold front will eventually sweep towards the region on Thursday. Luckily, it looks like our area will avoid heavy rain with this disturbance. The system is forecast to interact with the remnants (or tropical moisture) of Tropical Storm Sean well out in the Atlantic Ocean, but not until it's farther east of our area. The result will be the potential for some moderately heavy rains over Southern New England--our area should be spared the heavy stuff, although a brief period of heavy rain is possible across Long Island. Otherwise, spotty showers will be the only introduction to the new airmass that is coming this weekend. Prior to this, however, we will salvage one more day on Wednesday. Prior to the breakdown, the warm airmass will still be in place, and high temperatures on Wednesday will once again reach into the middle 60's. Enjoy it while you can!


Today (Wednesday): Partly sunny. High near 66. Southeast winds 5 miles per hour. The last warm day of the week before an approaching cold front. Take it all in!

Wednesday Night: Increasing clouds, with a 30% chance of showers.. Low near 52. Southeast winds 5 miles per hour.

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Article written by JH. Published November 9th, 2011 at 12:30am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM Model showing total accumulated rain amounts of near 2 inches in spots on Wednesday.

A significant disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere will strengthen further on Wednesday, as it moves from the Tennessee Valley towards the East Coast. This system will force the development of a strong area of low pressure at the surface, which will move northward from the Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley. Obviously this is well to the west of the area, and the low pressure is expected to stay there. However, this time, we're not out of the woods at all. In fact, we're expecting the threat of widespread showers and potentially heavy rains during the day today. The culprit will be a warm front which will extend east of the low pressure, coincidentally, directly over our area. This front will provide extra forcing/lift for precipitation to form and become heavy. In a moisture rich environment, and with a dynamic system in the atmosphere so nearby (including the presence of a developing low level jet), it isn't hard to fathom the potential for widespread showers as well as heavy rain for a period on Wednesday. The forecast models are (still) a bit inconsistent with this feature, but it appears at the very least likely that Wednesday will be marred by widespread showers and gloomy conditions. Where the heavy rain falls remains somewhat up in the air--but we will certainly be tracking it throughout the day today.

High temperatures in the middle 60's are forecast throughout the area, but south of the warm front (over Central NJ) temperatures may reach near 70 F as winds turn southerly and warm air is advected into the area. By overnight Wednesday into Thursday, a dry slot is expected to work into the area...ending the threat for showers and eventually allowing for clearing by Thursday morning.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Cloudy with a chance of showers early, then rain likely. The rain may be heavy at times. High near 65. East wind 10 miles per hour, gusting to 20 miles per hour at times. A dreary, gloomy day with the potential for heavy rain during the afternoon and early evening. Bring the rain gear!

Tonight: Cloudy with rain likely early, then a chance of showers. By dawn, clearing. Overnight low near 60. Southeast winds 15 miles per hour.

Article written by JH. Published October 19th, 2011 at 12:30am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing a strong low pressure over the Northeast on Wednesday.

The week began with a beautiful fall day on Monday, and will likely continue with much of the same today on Tuesday. High pressure which is built in to our south and east can be thanked for this (and the pleasant weather since this weekend), but it won't be able to hang on for long. In fact, it's already losing it's grip on the weather pattern over the area as tropical moisture gathers in the Gulf of Mexico and prepares to interact with a northern stream trough. However, today looks to be another spectacular fall day with mostly sunny skies throughout the morning and afternoon. Temperatures, under the full sun, will be able to rise into the middle 60's in a very similar fashion to Monday. Winds, this time around, will be less gusty and even less breezy than they have been the past three days. The pressure gradient which caused the winds is non-existent during the day today. Starting this afternoon and evening, high clouds will begin to build in and we may lose the sun during the afternoon. Clouds will lower by Tuesday evening and a chance for showers will turn into a good chance of rain by overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.


Today (Tuesday): Partly sunny. Increasing clouds late. High near 68. West winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. A beautiful fall day--but enjoy it, as the middle of the week will turn soggy.

Tonight: Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy. A chance of showers early, then rain likely overnight.  Low near 57. East winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

MID WEEK WEATHER TAKES AN OMINOUS TURN: An extremely large disturbance in the atmosphere develops over the Central US and moves eastward beginning early this week, forcing the development of a strong surface low. Thereafter, the surface low is forecast to move northward up and along the East Coast while interacting with plentiful tropical moisture. Forecast models are a bit inconsistent, so it's too early to tell exactly when or where the heaviest precipitation could fall, but the potential exists for a widespread moderate to heavy rain event on Wednesday throughout the area. We will keep you posted!

Article written by JH. Published October 18th, 2011 at 12:40am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing a strong surface low in the Northeast US on Wednesday.

A thermal boundary (temperature drop) will cross the area by Monday morning, and winds will have shifted from west to southwest in its wake. Meanwhile, any showers that were near the area overnight Sunday will have cleared. Monday looks like a pleasant day as high pressure is built in directly to our south. Although the high pressure's handle on the pattern will be short lived, and it's gradient with a low pressure to our north allowed for gusty winds this weekend, it will be suffice to keep Monday and the first half of Tuesday rather pleasant throughout our area. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the middle 60's once again on Monday, and although it will still be somewhat breezy, winds will be less of a problem than they were on both Saturday and Sunday. Monday night also looks pleasant, with the exception being some high clouds beginning to move in later in the overnight period into Tuesday morning. However, the main weather story will come in the middle of the week, as a large storm system organizes over the Eastern 1/3 of the United States, and then interacts with tropical moisture setting the stage for a rainy Wednesday. 


MID WEEK WEATHER TAKES AN OMINOUS TURN: An extremely large disturbance in the atmosphere develops over the Central US and moves eastward beginning early this week, forcing the development of a strong surface low. Thereafter, the surface low is forecast to move northward up and along the East Coast while interacting with plentiful tropical moisture. Forecast models are a bit inconsistent, so it's too early to tell exactly when or where the heaviest precipitation could fall, but the potential exists for a widespread moderate to heavy rain event on Wednesday throughout the area. We will keep you posted!


THE FORECAST...


Today (Monday): Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. West winds 10 to 15 miles per hour, occassionally gusting near 20 miles per hour. A generally pleasant autumn afternoon! 


Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a 20% chance of an isolated shower. Low near 52. West winds between 5 and 10 miles per hour. 


Article written by JH. Published October 17th, 2011 at 12:12am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

GFS Model showing the pressure gradient over our area on Sunday, with a high to our south and low to our north.

The last few weeks have certainly been up and down to say the least. A brief recap would bring up topics  such as unseasonable heat, with records being broken. Or maybe even an all time record for precipitation in the past month. If you dig deeper, you could find the very cool nights we had over three weeks ago where some areas reached as low as the middle 30's in the interior. Still, autumn has a way of balancing most things out and even in the most dramatic swings in sensible weather, there are days when things seem just right. Sunday should be one of those days. A high pressure will remain in control, as the low pressure over Eastern Canada moves farther north away from the area. This low pressure was partially responsible for the very strong fair-weather winds we experienced on Saturday, as it's lowering pressure combined with the building high pressure created a gradient over our area and provided a good setup for strong wind gusts. The winds could still be breezy on Sunday, but will certainly be less of an issue than they were on Saturday. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to top out in the middle 60's, with some clouds moving in later in the evening. 

Tarp covers a rain-soaked Yankee Stadium on Friday evening.

September closed as a continuation of August, which remained one of the wettest periods in New York City's recorded history. October won't begin any differently, as a storm system off the coast re-develops through the early morning hours...bringing moderate to heavy rain through the area. The rain is expected to continue, albeit more showery, through the afternoon. There may be a break in the action during the early afternoon, but by evening the showers will be around again. The weather Friday night caused disruption to the ALDS Game 1, which was postponed and rescheduled for tonight at 8:37pm. Unfortunately, it looks as if the Yankees will be battling the rain once again. This certainly won't go over well with those who are returning to the game to see the final innings (the game is being started where it was suspended, in the bottom of the 2nd inning and tied at 1). The rain looks to be more showery in nature than it was on Friday, but it won't be pleasant to say the least. Temperatures by evening will also be cooler than they were on Friday, and the rain and breeze will make it feel raw.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Saturday): Mostly cloudy, with rain likely in the morning. Then mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers through the evening. High temperatures near 66. North winds around 10 miles per hour--feeling damp and dreary. Chance of precipitation 100% early, 50% late.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Low temperatures falling into the lower 50's. North winds continued around 10 miles per hour.

FALL FOLIAGE UPDATE...

The progress of the yearly Fall Foliage and leaf drop continues to gain steam as the season continues to progress, but the overall color change throughout the Northeast United States remains well behind that of last year. Low color has only barely begun in Northwest New Jersey, and the color remains below the scale of color change elsewhere. Meanwhile, to our north over New England, low to moderate color has been observed over the mountains of New York State, Vermont, and New Hampshire and extending into Maine. Our color change usually becomes dramatic, in this part of the country, around the first weekend of October. So although we are running behind schedule, it's nothing too drastic. We should begin to see low to moderate color change within a week. The rain and cooler temperatures will definitely help.