NAM Model showing total accumulated rain amounts of near 2 inches in spots on Wednesday.

A significant disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere will strengthen further on Wednesday, as it moves from the Tennessee Valley towards the East Coast. This system will force the development of a strong area of low pressure at the surface, which will move northward from the Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley. Obviously this is well to the west of the area, and the low pressure is expected to stay there. However, this time, we're not out of the woods at all. In fact, we're expecting the threat of widespread showers and potentially heavy rains during the day today. The culprit will be a warm front which will extend east of the low pressure, coincidentally, directly over our area. This front will provide extra forcing/lift for precipitation to form and become heavy. In a moisture rich environment, and with a dynamic system in the atmosphere so nearby (including the presence of a developing low level jet), it isn't hard to fathom the potential for widespread showers as well as heavy rain for a period on Wednesday. The forecast models are (still) a bit inconsistent with this feature, but it appears at the very least likely that Wednesday will be marred by widespread showers and gloomy conditions. Where the heavy rain falls remains somewhat up in the air--but we will certainly be tracking it throughout the day today.

High temperatures in the middle 60's are forecast throughout the area, but south of the warm front (over Central NJ) temperatures may reach near 70 F as winds turn southerly and warm air is advected into the area. By overnight Wednesday into Thursday, a dry slot is expected to work into the area...ending the threat for showers and eventually allowing for clearing by Thursday morning.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Cloudy with a chance of showers early, then rain likely. The rain may be heavy at times. High near 65. East wind 10 miles per hour, gusting to 20 miles per hour at times. A dreary, gloomy day with the potential for heavy rain during the afternoon and early evening. Bring the rain gear!

Tonight: Cloudy with rain likely early, then a chance of showers. By dawn, clearing. Overnight low near 60. Southeast winds 15 miles per hour.

Article written by JH. Published October 19th, 2011 at 12:30am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing a strong low pressure over the Northeast on Wednesday.

The week began with a beautiful fall day on Monday, and will likely continue with much of the same today on Tuesday. High pressure which is built in to our south and east can be thanked for this (and the pleasant weather since this weekend), but it won't be able to hang on for long. In fact, it's already losing it's grip on the weather pattern over the area as tropical moisture gathers in the Gulf of Mexico and prepares to interact with a northern stream trough. However, today looks to be another spectacular fall day with mostly sunny skies throughout the morning and afternoon. Temperatures, under the full sun, will be able to rise into the middle 60's in a very similar fashion to Monday. Winds, this time around, will be less gusty and even less breezy than they have been the past three days. The pressure gradient which caused the winds is non-existent during the day today. Starting this afternoon and evening, high clouds will begin to build in and we may lose the sun during the afternoon. Clouds will lower by Tuesday evening and a chance for showers will turn into a good chance of rain by overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.


Today (Tuesday): Partly sunny. Increasing clouds late. High near 68. West winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. A beautiful fall day--but enjoy it, as the middle of the week will turn soggy.

Tonight: Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy. A chance of showers early, then rain likely overnight.  Low near 57. East winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

MID WEEK WEATHER TAKES AN OMINOUS TURN: An extremely large disturbance in the atmosphere develops over the Central US and moves eastward beginning early this week, forcing the development of a strong surface low. Thereafter, the surface low is forecast to move northward up and along the East Coast while interacting with plentiful tropical moisture. Forecast models are a bit inconsistent, so it's too early to tell exactly when or where the heaviest precipitation could fall, but the potential exists for a widespread moderate to heavy rain event on Wednesday throughout the area. We will keep you posted!

Article written by JH. Published October 18th, 2011 at 12:40am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM model showing significant energy in the mid levels of the atmosphere

Autumn is a season of change, and by this time of year in mid October the atmosphere begins to undergo some significant transitions. The colder air which has been bottled up near the poles all summer is beginning to work southward through Canada. Because of this, energy and disturbances are gaining strength. Cold fronts are stronger, low pressure areas are deeper, and even high pressures bring cooler air with a lower sun angle. A great example can be found in the storm system affecting the area through Friday afternoon. This system has picked up some extra steam as it dives southward from Canada, and interacts with moisture off the coast in the Atlantic Ocean. Strong forcing for precipitation will develop Friday morning and again Friday afternoon, and the moisture will bring the potential for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms, as well as heavy rain. The best potential for this heavy rain will come in two rounds. The first will occur Friday morning (early, before or during the morning commute). The second will occur with another front, moving towards our area from the south, Friday afternoon. Both will bring the potential for heavy rain, strong thunderstorms, and the potential for strong wind gusts. The storms are expected to clear the area by Saturday morning, but afterwards the changing airmasses and pressure gradient between the departing low pressure and the building high will create the potential for strong fair-weather winds.

The severe weather potential remains somewhat conditional upon any breaks in the clouds which we can manage during the day on Friday. The breaks in the clouds would allow for more daytime heating and sun, which would allow the atmosphere to become more unstable. Even despite this potential instability, as we mentioned, the storms could be strong. The Storm Prediction Center has not placed our area in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather, but does mention the potential for strong to severe storms. We will keep you updated throughout the day!


Today (Friday): Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. Additionally, thunderstorms likely in the morning and again mid afternoon. Some storms may be strong to severe with heavy rain. High near 73. South-southeast winds 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 100%.


Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. Additionally, thunderstorms possible early. Some storms may be strong to severe with heavy rain. Low near 53. South winds becoming west at 15-20 miles per hour.

Article written by JH. Published October 13th, 2011 at 10:00pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing high pressure in control later this week.

The upper level low is finally on it's way out. No, seriously, this time it's actually beginning to shift away from the area. It's shifting east/northeast in a weakness in the atmospheric pattern, which up until this point has acted as a "block", and allowed for the system to spin stagnant over the Central and Eastern US over the past two weeks. Today, the system is shifting east and will only scrape our area with the potential for some showers and clouds. Definitely not the most pleasant day, but temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than they were on Monday. Additionally, most of the hope lies in the weather which is in the future--as the middle and end of the week look to feature some of the most pleasant conditions we've seen since two weeks ago. We have to get through today first, though, and the story will be much of the same. High temperatures in the lower to middle 60's, with damp winds and a chance of showers. Skies will be partly cloudy at times, but will cloud up rapidly during the afternoon in the presence of scattered showers.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Tuesday): Partly to mostly cloudy, high temperatures in the lower to middle 60's. Chance of showers 30%. Northwest winds around 10 miles per hour. Still feeling cool and damp--long sleeves a good idea. May want to bring an umbrella along as scattered showers are expected this afternoon.

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Temperatures dropping once again into the lower to middle 50's in the city, and 40's inland. Bring a jacket or sweatshirt for sure. Chance of precipitation is 30% before midnight, gradually decreasing thereafter.

Article written by JH. Published October 4th, 2011 at 1:09am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing high temps barely scraping 60 degrees today.

Before we began our forecast two weeks ago, we included the possibility of an upper level system becoming "stagnant" over the United States. Stagnant probably is a bit of an understatement for the amount of persistence this upper level storm system. The system has spun over the Central US for a good part of the last two weeks, and it's also provided our area with a tremendous amount of unsettled weather in that time frame. Meanwhile, over the past week, it has begun it's slow shift eastward towards our area. The result has been (surprise!) continued unsettled weather, with showers and poor conditions, as well as slowly declining temperatures. All of that being said, we have good news to bring. By the middle of this week, the storm system is going to begin ejecting northeast away from the area, and fair weather is expected from Wednesday onward. Today is also forecast to be a decent day--with partly cloudy skies and only isolated showers. High temperatures will barely scrape 60 with a cool and damp feel to the air, but the lack of rain and some sunshine should make it feel pleasant. Enjoy it, because Tuesday should sandwich the two pleasant days of the week with showery weather.


THE FORECAST...

Today (Monday): Partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers. The day should be mostly pleasant, with clouds in and out. Yet, with the storm system still spinning overhead, showers could make their appearance once again in the afternoon. High temperatures only scraping 60, near 62 in the city. Cooler inland and near the coast. Winds south and southeast around 10 miles per hour. Sweatshirt? Sounds like a good idea.

Tonight: Becoming mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers. The showers could be somewhat more widespread than they were during the day and on Sunday. Temperatures falling into the 40's inland and near 50 in the city. Definitely bring a sweatshirt or jacket along. It'll be a raw night.


Article written by JH. Published October 3rd, 2011 at 12:31am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing rain  to our west today over Central Pennsylvania, while our area remains dry.

The forecast hasn't changed much over the past week and a half, as each day as offered mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers throughout the day. Some days have featured heavier rain, some have featured just showery activity. Sunday looks to be no different, as the stagnant disturbance in the atmosphere responsible for this mess over the last week or more is still moving near the area. The good news is that despite the threat for showers early, all forecast models indicate a break in the action associated with a dry slot in the middle of the atmosphere (less moisture to support rain and clouds). This break is forecast to occur after the late morning hours and continue through the early afternoon, before some showers re-enter the forecast during the later afternoon. Timing these breaks is extremely difficult, but we figured it would be worth a mention considering how dreary the weather has been of late. The main deal with Sunday will be the temperatures, which will barely scrape into the low 60's. The northerly winds will keep it feeling cool, raw, and damp.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Sunday): Mostly cloudy early, with a chance of showers. Then becoming partly cloudy, with a chance of showers. High near 64. Northeast wind around 10 miles per hour. Bring a long sleeved shirt or a sweatshirt--it's going to be feeling chilly out there.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Low near 50--damp and cool. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 miles per hour. Long sleeved shirts or sweatshirts are recommended once again.

ALDS GAME 2 FORECAST....

The two-day extravaganza that was Game 1 now a distant memory, and one Yankees win later, we look ahead towards Game 2 with a better forecast. The disturbance near the area will calm down a bit on Sunday, as it continues spinning just to our west. Although a chance of isolated to scattered showers exists on Sunday, there's a growing possibility that a dry slot (lack of moisture to produce clouds and rain) in the atmosphere could enter the area just before game time. This means we may actually see the sun during the game (amazing, we know). Stay here through the day and we'll keep you as updated as we can.

Article written by JH. Published October 2nd, 2011 at 1:36am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend and upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

Tarp covers a rain-soaked Yankee Stadium on Friday evening.

September closed as a continuation of August, which remained one of the wettest periods in New York City's recorded history. October won't begin any differently, as a storm system off the coast re-develops through the early morning hours...bringing moderate to heavy rain through the area. The rain is expected to continue, albeit more showery, through the afternoon. There may be a break in the action during the early afternoon, but by evening the showers will be around again. The weather Friday night caused disruption to the ALDS Game 1, which was postponed and rescheduled for tonight at 8:37pm. Unfortunately, it looks as if the Yankees will be battling the rain once again. This certainly won't go over well with those who are returning to the game to see the final innings (the game is being started where it was suspended, in the bottom of the 2nd inning and tied at 1). The rain looks to be more showery in nature than it was on Friday, but it won't be pleasant to say the least. Temperatures by evening will also be cooler than they were on Friday, and the rain and breeze will make it feel raw.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Saturday): Mostly cloudy, with rain likely in the morning. Then mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers through the evening. High temperatures near 66. North winds around 10 miles per hour--feeling damp and dreary. Chance of precipitation 100% early, 50% late.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Low temperatures falling into the lower 50's. North winds continued around 10 miles per hour.

FALL FOLIAGE UPDATE...

The progress of the yearly Fall Foliage and leaf drop continues to gain steam as the season continues to progress, but the overall color change throughout the Northeast United States remains well behind that of last year. Low color has only barely begun in Northwest New Jersey, and the color remains below the scale of color change elsewhere. Meanwhile, to our north over New England, low to moderate color has been observed over the mountains of New York State, Vermont, and New Hampshire and extending into Maine. Our color change usually becomes dramatic, in this part of the country, around the first weekend of October. So although we are running behind schedule, it's nothing too drastic. We should begin to see low to moderate color change within a week. The rain and cooler temperatures will definitely help.

Radar image from wunderground shows movement & intensity of precipitation over the past hour.

Although temperatures and humidity will make it feel warm (in a continuing trend over the past several days), Wednesday should be characterized by the presence of increased chances of showers. That being said, what once looked like the potential for heavy rain throughout portions of the day has turned into isolated showers, a certain improvement in the forecast. The key, is that forecast models are now weaker with a developing mid level disturbance passing the area this afternoon. The main large storm remains back to our west--and the disturbance today was forecast to be strong enough to touch of heavy rain. However, forecast models have since backed off, and it looks like the day should be generally salvaged. High temperatures in the mid 70's look like a sure bet--a few degrees cooler than the first two days of the week. Still, the presence of showers will likely have Wednesday remembered as a more damp and dreary day than the last two, even with the potential for dry conditions during the afternoon.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers. High temperatures in the middle 70's over Southern New Jersey and the NYC Metro, and lower 70's elsewhere. East winds and dew points in the 60's will lead to a much more damp day.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers. Low temperatures in the middle 60's. Continued east winds off the water--damp conditions continue.

LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL...

Unsettled weather has, generally (sans the past two days), plagued our area over the past week or more. The threat of unsettled weather could continue through Thursday as the main atmospheric disturbance nears. That said, most forecast models have a cold front clearing the area by Friday, which should offer clearing skies for Game 1 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium. There is a chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm as the disturbance begins to exit the area (won't quite be gone by Friday). We'll have a full forecast for the game beginning later tonight, so stay tuned! 


Article written by JH. Published September 28th, 2011 at 1:18am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing heavy rain over our area Friday Night.

First of all, happy Autumn! Today is the first day of calendar Autumn. Unfortunately, beautiful autumn weather won't be able to ring in the season. A storm system in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere is approaching our area, and although it remains to our west today, it's interaction with tropical moisture will bring the potential for heavy rain on Friday. Rain is forecast to move from south to north from the Carolinas towards our area, along a warm front and in response to a developing low pressure system. Tropical moisture in place will allow for the rain to be heavy at times, and although the heaviest rain may fall over a relatively small area (where training occurs, or rain moving over the same area for an extended period of time), most of the area will recieve showers which will be steady and heavy at times during the afternoon. Clouds will be a sure bet and it will be hard to see sun today to say the very least. The heaviest rain may actually redevelop Friday night into Saturday as another low pressure system develops near our area. The storm system will remain a significant inhibitor to pleasant weather through the weekend and possibly even into the beginning of next week. Highs today will only reach the upper 60's to low 70's, but it will feel plenty humid with the high moisture content and southerly flow.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Friday): Cloudy, with rain likely. The rain could be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's. Bring an umbrella along. You may be warm in a sweatshirt.

Tonight: Cloudy, rain likely. Heavy at times once again. Low temperatures in the 60's, with very moist air still around. Again, bring the rain gear if you're going to be out and about.

AUTUMN EQUINOX IS TODAY...

Today is the Autumn Equinox, or one of the very rare days in each year where the sun rises directly in the east and sets directly in the west. More importantly, for those who like the warm weather, yesterday was the last day of summer. For those who are looking forward to the cooler weather, we're just getting started. Times, and seasons are changing. We're diving head first into a long 6 months of cooler and wintry weather. We hope you stick around to enjoy it with us.

Article written by John Homenuk. Published September 23rd, 2011 at 1:36am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing the large storm to our west. Image depicts energy in the middle atmosphere.

The unsettled weather which our area experienced on Wednesday will likely foreshadow the weather which is on the way for the second half of the week. We can thank an approaching mid and upper level storm system for that, which will bring the potential for heavier and steadier rain and Friday and early Saturday. Until then, however, we won't have any time to prepare for the unsettled weather, as showers and clouds will be around leading up to the approach of the main system. We are currently dealing with a weak disturbance, moving from south to north around the larger system to our west, which is providing our area with clouds and showers. This weak disturbance is one very isolated "spoke" of energy related to the much bigger storm system which is back to our west over the Central United States. So, as mentioned, although it may provide our area with unsettled conditions.. the real heavy rain may not come until Friday into Saturday, when the large mid and upper level storm nears the area. Highs today, despite the clouds and potential showers, will still be warmer than the past few days..reaching into the lower to middle 70's. High dew points, clouds, and south east winds will make it feel damp, though. Scattered showers are also a good bet throughout the day.


Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers. Highs in the middle 70's, with southeast winds keeping dew points and moisture high. Showers could be briefly moderate to heavy, but should be scattered. Won't be a washout, but won't be a nice day either. Bring along an umbrella for sure.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, 40% chance of showers. Same deal, essentially. Low temperatures in the 60's, with the air still feeling damp. Might be a little too warm for a heavy sweatshirt.


A large storm system over the Central United States is forecast to shift eastward towards the Ohio Valley and Northeast by this weekend. Smaller disturbances will affect our area through the week, before the heavy rain potential arrives Friday and early Saturday. Although it's too early to pinpoint where the heaviest rain will occur, it's certainly safe at this point to say that the end of the week into the first half of the weekend does not look pretty. The potential for heavy rain amounts definitely exists as tropical moisture gets involved on Friday as well. We will keep you updated over the next few days as the system draws closer, and the forecast models begin to converge on the area of heaviest rain as well as the timing of the precipitation.

NAM model showing low pressure affecting our area Friday

The partly cloudy skies over the region Tuesday Night were a welcomed sight for those who couldn't wait to escape the rain and cloudy conditions that we endured most of the day on Tuesday. However, they won't last long...and unfortunately most of Wednesday may feature clouds as well. A disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere will approach from south to north (moving from the Mid-Atlantic states towards our area), bringing clouds and the potential for scattered showers with it. This weak disturbance is one very isolated "spoke" of energy related to a much bigger storm system which is back to our west over the Central United States. So although it may provide our area with unsettled conditions on Wednesday, the real heavy rain may not come until Friday into Saturday, when the large mid and upper level storm nears the area. Highs tomorrow, despite the clouds and potential showers, will be much warmer than the past few days...reaching into the middle 70's. You can thank the warm front which passed on Tuesday (bringing us showers and clouds) for the warmer weather. Unfortunately, we won't have the luxury of the enjoying the warmth in the sun.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Partly cloudy early, then becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of scattered showers. Warmer, with highs near 77. Southeast winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 30%. We'd recommend short sleeves despite the increasing clouds...temperatures in the mid 70's will feel warm compared to the last week or so!

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60's. Southeast winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Definitely bring a sweatshirt along.

SHOWERS & CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...

A large storm system over the Central United States is forecast to shift eastward towards the Ohio Valley and Northeast by this weekend. Smaller disturbances will affect our area through the week, before the heavy rain potential arrives Friday and early Saturday. Although it's too early to pinpoint where the heaviest rain will occur, it's certainly safe at this point to say that the end of the week into the first half of the weekend does not look pretty. The potential for heavy rain amounts definitely exists as tropical moisture gets involved on Friday as well. We will keep you updated over the next few days as the system draws closer, and the forecast models begin to converge on the area of heaviest rain as well as the timing of the precipitation.

Article written by John Homenuk. Published September 21st, 2011 at 12:50am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.