NAM model showing high temps barely scraping 60 degrees today.

Before we began our forecast two weeks ago, we included the possibility of an upper level system becoming "stagnant" over the United States. Stagnant probably is a bit of an understatement for the amount of persistence this upper level storm system. The system has spun over the Central US for a good part of the last two weeks, and it's also provided our area with a tremendous amount of unsettled weather in that time frame. Meanwhile, over the past week, it has begun it's slow shift eastward towards our area. The result has been (surprise!) continued unsettled weather, with showers and poor conditions, as well as slowly declining temperatures. All of that being said, we have good news to bring. By the middle of this week, the storm system is going to begin ejecting northeast away from the area, and fair weather is expected from Wednesday onward. Today is also forecast to be a decent day--with partly cloudy skies and only isolated showers. High temperatures will barely scrape 60 with a cool and damp feel to the air, but the lack of rain and some sunshine should make it feel pleasant. Enjoy it, because Tuesday should sandwich the two pleasant days of the week with showery weather.


THE FORECAST...

Today (Monday): Partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers. The day should be mostly pleasant, with clouds in and out. Yet, with the storm system still spinning overhead, showers could make their appearance once again in the afternoon. High temperatures only scraping 60, near 62 in the city. Cooler inland and near the coast. Winds south and southeast around 10 miles per hour. Sweatshirt? Sounds like a good idea.

Tonight: Becoming mostly cloudy, with a 30% chance of showers. The showers could be somewhat more widespread than they were during the day and on Sunday. Temperatures falling into the 40's inland and near 50 in the city. Definitely bring a sweatshirt or jacket along. It'll be a raw night.


Article written by JH. Published October 3rd, 2011 at 12:31am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM models forecast highs today

Although the mid and upper level disturbance, which caused the unsettled weather towards the end of last week, is still spinning off to our west, it appears that Monday will be salvaged as a pleasant day. In fact, it could turn out to be one of the warmer days in the area since the big cold front came through just around two weeks ago. Temperatures on Monday, with some breaks in the clouds, are forecast to reach into the upper 70's to near 80, which will feel very warm when coupled with dew points well into the 60's. The humidity won't be helped by a wind which is off the water, but maintaining a warm southerly component. There is a chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm during the late afternoon, but the cold front (and best forcing to develop storms and rain) remains back to our west over the Ohio Valley. Don't get too comfortable, though, this cold front will make the forecast a bit uncertain (and unsettled once again) as we approach the middle of the week.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Monday): Partly to mostly cloudy, but feeling warmer. High temperatures near 80. Humidity won't help, in fact it will likely feel very warm out there. Short sleeves are recommended, and you may want to think about shorts, too. A chance of an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, and we should remain mostly dry...although we won't rule out a scattered storm. Low temperatures in the upper 60's..another relatively warm evening.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN...

Monday and Tuesday will offer similar forecasts, but the unsettled weather will return by Wednesday as the frontal boundary near the area is touched off once again by the mid level disturbance which will then be approaching our area. Showers and thunderstorms are a distinct possibility beginning Tuesday Night into Wednesday, and the threat of unsettled weather could continue through Thursday as the disturbance nears.

Article written by John Homenuk. Published September 26th, 2011 at 1:34am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.