The beautiful weather which settled into the area over the weekend will make a quick exit as the new week begins, as the high pressure responsible for the fair weather and sunshine is shunted out to sea. A frontal boundary will approach the area on Monday, slow down considerably through Tuesday, and then pass through the area by Wednesday. Showers will be likely during the majority of the day on Tuesday and Wednesday, and they may possibly end with some snowflakes very late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Clouds are already on the increase throughout the area this Monday morning, and they are expected to remain here through much of the day. The chance of showers increases beginning Monday Night. Temperatures will still be warm, until the front nears the area on Wednesday. Behind the front, cooler temperatures will rapidly work into the area. Although some snow flakes are possible away from the city to end the storm system on Wednesday Night/Thursday, no accumulations are expected. A few forecast models are showing the potential for a few slushy inches away from the city, but that remains an outlier solution at this time. Pictured right: NAM model showing showers affecting the area Monday Night into Tuesday.


Monday: Cloudy, with a high near 60. South winds around 10 miles per hour.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Overnight low near 53. South wind near 10 miles per hour.

Tuesday: Cloudy with showers likely. High near 60.  South winds around 10 miles per hour.

 Article written by JH. Published December 5th, 2011 at 2:40am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

The 5th warmest November on record in New York City now a memory, December began with a much cooler airmass in place behind a cold front. The next few days will offer much of the same, as clear skies and full sun will only be able to produce highs near 50 on both Friday and Saturday. This is thanks to a Canadian high pressure which is built in over the area. The cold air comes as a drastic change from the last week of November, which offered record setting highs. Temperatures will rebound a bit on Sunday as a ridge builds in the mid-levels of the atmosphere and the airmass over the area modifies. Without any new cold air source, it is expected that temperatures will rise each day as we work towards the new week. Winds will still be a bit breezy on Friday, but not as strong as Wednesday or Thursday. Overnight lows will still drop into the 20's and 30's until Saturday Night, when they will start trending a bit warmer. Pictured right: The NAM Model showing high pressure built in over the area this weekend.


Today (Friday): Sunny, with a high near 53. West winds between 10 and 15 miles per hour.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. North winds between 5 and 10 miles per hour.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 49. North winds around 10 miles per hour.

Sunday: Mostly sunny and milder, with a high near 56. Overnight low near 44.


Meteorological winter began yesterday, December 1st 2011. If you're like us, this usually means exciting and challenging times are ahead as snowstorms and associated systems are closer to impacting the forecast area. This can be one of the most humbling times of the year for a weather forecaster. Our latest Technical Featured Discussion details our thoughts on the first two to three weeks of the meteorological winter, leading us towards the holiday weekend. Check it out by clicking here, and leave us a reply to let us know what you think!

Article written by JH. Published December 2nd, 2011 at 12:15am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

Temperatures this holiday weekend soared several degrees above normal, as a ridge of high pressure established itself over the area. Unseasonably warm air settled in place and stayed there for a good part of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. In fact, record high temperatures were tied or broken in more than three reporting stations throughout the area on Saturday. For the sake of example, Newark reached the 68 degree mark tying the old record which was previously set in 1979. Near-70 degree temperatures are fairly unheard of this time of year. The weather to start this work week will begin right where the weekend left off, with temperatures on Monday forecast to once again reach into the middle 60's throughout the area. However, a large and powerful storm system is taking shape over the Central United States. This storm system will shift northeastward, bringing with it an unusual set of events. This storm system is defined throughout the meteorological community as a "cutoff trough", meaning the trough/disturbance itself cuts off from the jet stream. The cold air will stay with the system as it cuts off, meaning that as it moves up the coast, temperatures in our area will (for a time) be warmer than temperatures to our south over the Mid-Atlantic. Eventually, the storm will bring a cold front through the entire northeast. Showers and a period of heavy rain are likely Tuesday and Tuesday Night. In the image to the right, you can see the NAM Model showing the disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere (top, red and purple colors detail atmospheric vorticity)..and at the surface (bottom, shaded colors are precipitation and contour lines are temperatures at 850mb in the atmosphere). 


Today (Monday): Partly sunny, with a high near 64. There could be some periods of fog in the morning. Winds turning southwest around 10 miles per hour.

Monday Night: Increasing clouds, with a low around 51. Areas of fog developing after 2am. Southwest winds around 5 miles per hour.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, then rain likely after 2pm. High near 65. The rain may be heavy at times. East winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of 0.10" to 0.25" possible.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with rain likely. Low near 50. The rain may be heavy at times. East-southeast winds 10 to 15 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts of 0.30" to 0.50" possible.

Article written by JH. Published November 28th, 2011 at 1:20am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

An unsettled atmospheric pattern has taken hold of the area early this week, and will continue to be in place through around Wednesday evening. Although the main storm system won't arrive until Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning, numerous small disturbances in the atmosphere will provide a chance of showers on Monday, and will likely keep clouds around as well. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are only expected to reach into the 50's for highs, as the surface winds turn east off the Atlantic waters. In addition to keeping temperatures down, this flow of air combined with the unsettled pattern in the atmosphere will keep plenty of clouds around through the middle of the week as well. The steady rain will likely wait, as we mentioned, until later Tuesday Night through Wednesday, when a strong low pressure area approaches from our south and west. This low pressure will traverse northeast through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast, before redeveloping somewhere off the coast. The presence of strong lift for precipitation as the storm passes will set the stage for moderate to heavy rain at times overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. The storm is expected to wrap up by Wednesday afternoon, with the potential for an isolated rain or snow shower thereafter. In the image to our right, we can see the NAM model showing the weak atmospheric disturbance over our area today, and the strong disturbance over the Plains heading in our direction (both circled in yellow).

Today (Monday): Increasing clouds, with a 30% chance of rain. High near 54. New rainfall amounts of less than 0.10" possible.

Monday Night: Cloudy, with a chance of rain. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Overnight low near 45. New rainfall amounts of near 0.10" possible.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a 30% chance of rain. High near 53. New rainfall amounts of 0.10" to 0.25" possible. 


Over time, you've probably heard us mention the term "South-west flow event" or "SWFE" as a way of defining a winter storm or type of system. This has become somewhat loosely defined, but essentially describes the type of storm system we're dealing with this coming Tuesday into Wednesday. On the image above, at the top of this post, you'll see the strong atmospheric disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere, which at the time of the image is situated over the Plains states. This energy is ejecting northeastward, towards the Ohio Valley. As it does so, you'll also notice a ridge building ahead of this feature (black lines buckling ahead of it). This ridge is developing as a result of the southwest flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere, which is driving the system northeastward.

This southwest flow can develop through the mid, and even low levels of the atmosphere. During the winter, these systems can cause forecast nightmares. Part of the problem develops when there is a strong surface high near our area at the time of a south-west flow events approach. Imagine the strong surface high, keeping cold winter-like air at the very surface of the atmosphere, while a south-west flow event brings warm air into the levels above it. This often results in sleet, which forms as snowflakes form in the upper atmosphere, melt in the middle atmosphere (as a result of warm temperatures from the south-west flow) and then re-freeze at the cold surface.

Luckily for us, this south-west flow event is occurring just a few weeks before we typically have a winter-like cold airmass in place. This time, we don't have to worry about precipitation-type and changeovers. We'll leave that problem to our neighbors to the north over Central New England. Something tells me, though, we'll be revisiting this problem sooner than later.


Article written by JH. Published November 21st, 2011 at 11:34am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming week and holiday, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM model showing temps into the 60's on Sunday.

The weather over the past several days has been generally unpredictable, in a sense, as temperatures have fluctuated fairly dramatically. Just over a week ago, and even as recently as early this past week, temperatures were in the 60's which is well above average. A cold front moved through prior to Friday, and a new cold Canadian airmass moved in. Friday was blustery and chilly with high temperatures barely reaching out of the 40's in some spots. However, the pattern that is dominating our areas weather is best defined as "transient". Essentially, the flow of the mid and upper levels and the dominant jet stream pattern is so fast that no specific weather can really become established. If the weather in general was to lean in one direction, it would be above average temperature wise and below average precipitation wise. Yet, we've seen our fair share of cold air shots and they will likely become more numerous over the past few weeks (winter is coming, after all). This weekend should feature a chilly start on Saturday, followed by moderating temperatures by Sunday and Monday. Clouds are then expected to increase Tuesday and Wednesday as a storm system approaches from the southwest. There may be a chance for some frozen precipitation in the higher elevations north and west, but it should be spotty. Most areas should expect the potential for a chilly rain. Sorry, we wish we had better news!


Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. Breezy west winds, but not as cool as Friday. Sun will still feel warm in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Overnight low near 46. Not as cold as Thursday or Friday night, but still chilly.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 61. A good ten degrees warmer than Saturday, so it will feel plenty warm out there. A beautiful day for sure.

Sunday Night: Increasing clouds, with an overnight low near 47.

Article written by JH. Published November 19th, 2011 at 1:04am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM model showing low pressure along a front near our area.

The warmth we have experienced over the past several days has been anomalous for this time of year (mid-november) with highs nearing the 70 degree mark for two consecutive days. However, a frontal boundary approaching the region will set the stage for an unsettled middle of the week, and then a drop in temperatures by Friday. Essentially, a reminder that it is in fact the middle of November. The airmass behind the front is expected to be quite cool (albeit transient), with high temperatures only scraping 50 on Thursday and Friday. That said, we have a frontal boundary near the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the potential for showers will exist on both days. Disturbances in the middle of the atmosphere will force the development of weak low pressures along the front, driving areas of precipitation from southwest to northeast from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. The first of these is forecast to occur Tuesday Night into Wednesday, and the second early Thursday...both bringing the potential for steady rain. Showery weather will continue otherwise. By Thursday and Friday, we will see more sun..but as mentioned, a fresh new canadian airmass will be in place--and it will be feeling much more like mid November.


Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers. High near 64. New rainfall near 0.10" possible.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of rain. Overnight low near 53. New rainfall between 0.10" and 0.25" possible.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with a 60% chance of rain. High near 60. New rainfall of 0.10" to 0.25" possible.

Article written by JH. Published November 15th, 2011 at 11:27am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing high pressure controlling our weather this weekend

The warm air which built throughout the area during the middle of this week was shunted out on Thursday, thanks to a strong disturbance in the middle of the atmosphere. At the surface, a cold front moved through the area late Thursday evening, and winds turned northwesterly. This helped to usher in a new Canadian airmass which, although only briefly, will take control of the areas weather this weekend. In addition, a deepening storm to our northeast will tuck in the cooler air and new airmass with a bit of ferocity, so that winds will be gusty on Friday and Friday evening. Generally, gusts upward of 20 miles per hour are possible during the afternoon...with some higher gusts to near or over 30 miles per hour possible in isolated locations. The main story will be the fact that temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50's on Friday. Still, the airmass is forecast to modify rather quickly, meaning the cold air source will only last a day or two. Highs are forecast to reach into the middle 50's on Saturday and to near 60 on Sunday, as the atmosphere rebounds with another mid level ridge. Finally, the forecast looks to turn unsettled once again by later Monday into Tuesday as another disturbance approaches. The weekend, though, looks to be pleasant...with plenty of sun. You'll just need to bring some warmer clothes along.


Today (Friday): Partly cloudy. High near 51. Breezy, with West winds 15 to 25 miles per hour. The winds could gust over 30 miles per hour at times. Feeling much cooler than the past several days--winds won't help.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 39. Still breezy, with winds gusting to near 20 miles per hour. Definitely bring along a warm jacket.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High near 54. A bit warmer, but still a northwest breeze. Not as bad as Friday, but it'll still feel pretty chilly out there at times. Luckily, we'll have plenty of sun.

Article written by JH. Published November 11th, 2011 at 11:27am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM Model showing low pressure developing well to our northeast (Blue dot is NYC)

Usually when cold fronts cross our area in the fall or spring, they can bring some pretty dramatic temperature differences as well as some fairly heavy precipitation. You probably remember the strong fall cold fronts of the past, bringing in winter-like air with a period of very heavy rain. Thursday's front, however, will have all of it's thunder stolen by Tropical Storm Sean which is currently spinning out in the Atlantic Ocean. How does this happen? Essentially, the moisture which would normally feed along or ahead of the cold front is involved in Sean. The interaction between this tropical disturbance and the mid level disturbancing kicking the cold front through will eventually produce heavy precipitation--but it will likely be to the east of our area. This precipitaiton is forecast to develop over Eastern New England Thursday Night into Friday, and may clip parts of Long Island. In fact, by Friday, a very strong cyclone is forecast to develop near Maine as the mid level disturbance over the Northeast interacts with Sean. Over our area, periods of drizzle and light showers are possible on Thursday, but it looks like we're going to avoid any moderate to heavy precipitation. Cold air will move in behind the front, bringing breezy conditions on Friday and Saturday...especially with the storm rapidly deepening to our northeast.


Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers. High near 62. Total rainfall less than 0.10".
 
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Overnight low near 41.

Article written by JH. Published November 10th, 2011 at 12:51am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM Model showing low pressure to our east on Thursday, and a new cooler airmass behind it

The trend of temperatures slowly rising each day will reach a plateau of sorts on Wednesday, as the high pressure and mid level ridge responsible for the warming begin to get shunted to our east. The culprit is a rather strong mid level disturbance to our west-northwest, which will make it's move towards the Great Lakes on Wednesday into Thursday. The strength and speed of the system will cause a breakdown in high pressure and the ridge of fair/warm weather in the atmosphere. A cold front will eventually sweep towards the region on Thursday. Luckily, it looks like our area will avoid heavy rain with this disturbance. The system is forecast to interact with the remnants (or tropical moisture) of Tropical Storm Sean well out in the Atlantic Ocean, but not until it's farther east of our area. The result will be the potential for some moderately heavy rains over Southern New England--our area should be spared the heavy stuff, although a brief period of heavy rain is possible across Long Island. Otherwise, spotty showers will be the only introduction to the new airmass that is coming this weekend. Prior to this, however, we will salvage one more day on Wednesday. Prior to the breakdown, the warm airmass will still be in place, and high temperatures on Wednesday will once again reach into the middle 60's. Enjoy it while you can!


Today (Wednesday): Partly sunny. High near 66. Southeast winds 5 miles per hour. The last warm day of the week before an approaching cold front. Take it all in!

Wednesday Night: Increasing clouds, with a 30% chance of showers.. Low near 52. Southeast winds 5 miles per hour.

For full forecast details, including our brand new zone forecast capabilities, click here. You can select your exact location on a map, and view a detailed forecast for your area. These forecasts are updated at least twice daily. To provide feedback on this new product, please click here. 

Article written by JH. Published November 9th, 2011 at 12:30am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM Model showing high pressure built in over the area this week.

Surface high pressure will remain wedged over our forecast area through Wednesday so it's safe to say that Tuesday should be a fabulous day. The dry weather and plentiful sun will almost make the weather a non-factor for those who are going about their typically busy Tuesday afternoon. The morning will start out chilly -- but not as chilly as the past several nights -- so expect temperatures in the upper 30's and lower 40's in the early morning. By afternoon, however, warmer temperatures in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere along with plenty of sun will allow for temperatures to rise to well over 60 degrees throughout most of the area. West winds should still be noticeable, but not breezy, around 5 to 10 miles per hour. By the later afternoon, temperatures will fall off (quicker than usual, now, with an earlier afternoon sunset) and drop once again into the  40's. However, Tuesday Night will be a few degrees warmer than the past several nights, a trend which will be becoming more noticeable as the week goes on. The airmass, after all, is modifying over the region as it is losing it's Canadian cold air source as it settles near our area.

The week ahead looks to feature moderating temperatures through Wednesday, before a cold front nears our area on Thursday. We aren't expecting heavy precipitation with this front--in fact it may be very spotty. Behind the front, a new and fresh cold airmass will move in for the weekend...with low and high temperatures probably averaging slightly below seasonal normals.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Tuesday): Sunny, with highs in the mid 60's. Light west winds around 5 to 10 miles per hour. Feeling warmer than the past several days---beautifully comfortable outside.

Tonight: Clear, lows in the mid to upper 40's in the city and upper 30's to mid 40's inland. Light west winds. Temperatures feeling a bit warmer than the past several nights.

Wednesday: Sunny, with highs in the mid 60's. Absolutely terrific autumn day---winds will be light from the southwest. Some clouds building by evening.

Article written by JH. Published November 6th, 2011 at 10:26pm. Updated November 7th, 2011 at 11:05pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM model showing high pressure dominating the weather into the weekend.

High pressure building into the forecast area will be the main story through the the middle of next week, and to be honest we couldn't ask for a better forecast through the entire period. Although the airmass will still be cool to start the weekend on Saturday, we have a lot to look forward to. A large ridge in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will develop over the Central and Eastern United States by Sunday through Wednesday, bringing us fair weather. Plenty of sun, light winds, and splendidy crisp autumn evenings will almost make the weather a non-factor throughout the next several days. Additionally, the airmass will modify with time (it's coming from Canada, but it's warming as it gets here)...meaning high temperatures should slowly climb from the lower 50's on Saturday, to near 60 on Monday, to possibly the mid to upper 60's on Wednesday. The one thing working against us is the fact that we lose an hour of daylight beginning Sunday Night, when we turn the clocks back one hour. Winter is coming, there's no doubt about that, so we're excited to enjoy the next several days of beautifully comfortably weather that this pattern has to offer.



THE FORECAST...

Today (Sunday): Sunny, high's in the lower to mid 50's. Still pretty cool, with light northwest winds. Highs could stay in the 40's over the interior and higher elevations.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with lows dropping into the 20's and 30's once again inland, but the upper 30's to low 40's in the city and metro area. This will begin a trend of slightly warmer nights continuing into next week.

Article written by JH. Published November 5th, 2011 at 1:36am. Updated November 6th, 11:42am.  Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM model showing high pressure dominating the weather into the weekend.

Split between two mid level disturbances, our area will be able to enjoy the benefits of high pressure through the end of the week. This high pressure will actually strengthen over the weekend, so we expect much of the same through Sunday. Today will feature high temperatures near 60 or in the low 60's in some warmer spots. These warmer temperatures will come between two disturbances which, although not expected to provide precipitation or unsettled weather, will still bring this warm weather to a bit of a halt. As a thermal boundary associated with these disturbances crosses the area later Thursday into early Friday, cooler air will move back into the picture. Highs on Friday and Saturday will once again top out in the 50's, despite the warmer tease on Thursday afternoon. Luckily, clouds don't seem to be a significant factor in the forecast. Plenty of sun will be present throughout the area during the end of this week into the weekend, which will certainly make things more pleasant. Overnight low temperatures will still be cold, though...in the upper 30's to lower 40's in the city and lower 30's inland (20's in the colder spots).


THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): Mostly sunny and a bit warmer, highs near 60. Light southwest winds and plenty of sun, especially early. Nothing to complain about here.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with lows in the 40's in the city and 30's inland. West winds getting a tiny bit breezy, around 10 miles per hour, and turning north.

Article written by JH. Published November 3rd, 2011 at 2:40am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing storm offshore

Although the weekend snowstorm is not yet a distant memory, the improving weather over the next few days is  sure to help keep it off our minds. High pressure is building in today, and will keep our weather fair through at least the mid to end part of the week. A disturbance in the atmosphere is passing overhead today, but not to worry, the surface low pressure will be well to our east and out over the Atlantic Ocean. We aren't expecting any precipitation from this feature, but we can't completely rule out the threat of a spotty shower along the New Jersey coast on Tuesday morning. After this storm passes, the high pressure will take more control, and the airmass will modify a bit. In other words, the cold air will become stale over the region..and with time, high temperatures will begin to climb back towards seasonal averages with the lack of any new cold air source. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to reach into the middle 50's, and the winds will still be out of the north. Overnight lows going into Wednesday morning will once again be chilly, into the 30's, and possibly the 20's inland.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Tuesday): Mostly sunny, with highs in the mid 50's. Some passing clouds and possibly a shower or two near the New Jersey shore. North winds 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with lows in the 30's near the city and the 20's in the suburbs and higher elevations. North winds 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Article written by JH. Published November 1st, 2011 at 3:05am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

Visible satellite from Saturday afternoon 10/29 showing the massive winter-like storm system on the East Coast

As long as you didn't sleep through the entire day on Saturday, you can say that you experienced a piece of meteorological history in the New York Metro area. No, there weren't record snowfall amounts as far as winter-time snowfall records. However, it was easy to mistake today for a mid-winter's day, and that's where the historical aspect of the storm system comes into play. Prior to Saturdays major snowfall event, all of the major reporting station in the New  York City area had October snowfall records under 1 inch. That's right, in all of recorded snowfall history...none of the major reporting stations (Newark, LaGuardia, Kennedy, Central Park) had experienced a snowfall over 1 inch in  October. This all changed on Saturday as all of the major reporting stations broke their previous records. Newark recorded 4.6 inches of snow, LaGuardia 1.5 inches, Kennedy 1.2 inches, and Central Park 1.3 inches. Incredible totals given the time of year. Interior areas cashed in even more as the elevation helped keep them cooler: Areas of Northwest New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Southwest Connecticut recorded over 15 inches of snow (some near 20 inches!). Winds and the heaviness of the snow on still leaved trees resulted in extremely widespread tree damage--and power outages. Unprecedented, unheard of, and historical. All words that can be used to define the events which transpired on Saturday.

Sunday should be much better without a doubt. The storm will shift northeast, away from the area, and high pressure will build back in. High temperatures will be quite low, thanks to the cold airmass and the snow pack, but should still be able to reach into the mid 40's in the city. Farther inland, highs may struggle to get out of the lower 40's and may stay in the 30's in some elevated areas. Essentially, despite the fact that the snow will have stopped falling and the sun will be shining, it will feel more like December than late October. Low temperatures Sunday night will be cold once again--dropping below freezing by a good bit inland , into the 20's. Even in the city, with favorable radiational cooling conditions, low temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 30's.



Today (Sunday): Mostly sunny, a bit breezy early. High's near 44 in the city, cooler inland. Northwest winds 10 to 15 miles per hour. Going to feel cooler than usual with the snowpack.

Tonight: Mostly clear, low near 33 in the city. Possibly more than 10 degrees cooler inland, in the low 20's. Likely the coldest night of the season to date, especially inland. The snow pack and ideal radiational cooling conditions will help temperatures drop rapidly. Winds out of the northwest at 5 miles per hour.

Article written by JH. Published October 30th, 2011 at 12:48am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing low pressure along a front near the area on Thursday afternoon.

A strong gradient in the mid levels of the atmosphere will develop across the Northeast on Thursday , and the gradient will eventually extend down towards the surface in the form of a well defined frontal boundary, which will settle near the area beginning Thursday morning and afternoon. This frontal boundary will serve as a "highway" for low pressure and moderate to heavy precipitation to develop at the surface, as a strong disturbance moves over the boundary in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Such a development will bring a threat of moderate to heavy precipitation to the forecast area, beginning on Thursday and continuing through Thursday evening. The precipitation looks to be somewhat spotty early, as mentioned above, so it won't be a deluge for your morning commute. However, by mid-morning the precipitation intensity should pick up, and it will continue on and off throughout the remainder of the day. Making the situation more complicated is the intrusion of significant cold air which is expected as the storm passes and the front sags south. This will bring colder temperatures into the system on Thursday evening, and the potential would exist for some frozen precipitation  in the higher elevations of the distant interior. The snow would be short lived and will stay away from the coast and the city as well as the immediate suburbs. The official forecast is below...


Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with rain likely. High near 55. West winds around 5 miles per hour. A dreary and chilly day.


Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. The showers could end as snow showers far north and west and in higher elevations. Otherwise, mostly cloudy. Low near 38. Cooler inland. West winds 5 miles per hour. 


WILD WEEKEND? This weekend looks to provide more dramatics, as the boundary settles offshore. Forecast models are indicative of the development of a low pressure system along this front, which could track north and then northeast up the East Coast. Such a track could (emphasis on could) bring the threat for frozen precipitation right back into the picture on Saturday, with the potential for snow, once again, away from the coast. However, the forecast models have been highly inconsistent, and it's going to take some time to iron out the exact track of the system. Some forecast models have the storm missing completely out to sea. Needless to say, we're watching it very closely. Stay with us for more details as the week continues. 

Article written by JH. Published October 27th, 2011 at 2:20am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the end of the week into the weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM model showing high temps in the 60's today (Wednesday).

The pleasant weather of the beginning of the week will become somewhat of a distant memory as we approach Wednesday, and continue through Thursday. A strong gradient in the mid levels of the atmosphere will develop across the Northeast by the end of the week, and the gradient will eventually extend down towards the surface in the form of a well defined frontal boundary, which will settle near the area by Thursday morning. This frontal boundary will serve as a "highway" for low pressure and moderate to heavy precipitation to develop at the surface, as a strong disturbance moves over the boundary in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Such a development will bring a threat of moderate to heavy precipitation to the forecast area, beginning on Thursday and continuing through Thursday evening. However, today (Wednesday) looks to be salvaged, with clouds in and out and temperatures in the lower 60's. The threat of precipitation should hold off until the evening hours, and even then it will be just spotty showers. The heavy precipitation won't begin until Thursday.

ECMWF model showing potential significant coastal storm on Saturday. Notice cold air being drawn into the storm. Courtesy: Stormvista.com

DUAL EVENTS MAY BRING A SURPRISE: As mentioned earlier, the weather will take an unsettled turn beginning on Thursday. The initial culprit will be a gradient in the mid levels of the atmosphere. At the surface, the gradient will become well defined as a frontal boundary settles near the area. A wave of low pressure will ride along this front, tracking just south of Long Island. Making the situation more complicated is the intrusion of significant cold air which is expected as the storm passes and the front sags south. This will bring colder temperatures into the system on Thursday, and the potential would exist for some frozen precipitation (yes, we're serious) in the higher elevations and the distant interior. The snowfall would be short lived and is likely to say away from the coast and the city, but we can't rule out a few flakes in the immediate suburbs and especially interior/higher elevations. 


This weekend looks to provide more dramatics, as the boundary settles offshore. Forecast models are indicative of the development of a low pressure system along this front, which could track north and then northeast up the East Coast. Such a track could (emphasis on could) bring the threat for frozen precipitation right back into the picture on Saturday, with the potential for snow, once again, away from the coast. However, the forecast models have been highly inconsistent, and it's going to take some time to iron out the exact track of the system. Some forecast models have the storm missing completely out to sea. Needless to say, we're watching it very closely. Stay with us for more details as the week continues. 


Article written by JH. Published October 26th, 2011 at 1:26am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing weak high pressure keeping the weather fair on Tuesday.

A ridge of high pressure in the mid levels of the atmosphere is building in this morning, and will continue to do so throughout the day on Tuesday. The result will be pleasant weather, with clear skies and high temperatures in the low 60's. Winds will be out of the northwest behind a weak cold front that passed the area late Monday Night into Tuesday morning. The winds could be a bit breezy and gusty, mostly during the afternoon. It's a result of what is technically called "cold air advection" or "CAA". Behind a cold front, northwest or west winds usher in a new and cooler airmass, and the advection of this air behind a temperature boundary can often bring some moderate wind gusts. Tuesday will be no different. Low temperatures overnight Tuesday Night into early Wednesday Morning will likely dip into the middle 40's once again, as clear skies and light winds will allow for favorable radiational cooling conditions. However, by early Wednesday morning (possibly even the pre-dawn hours) clouds will begin to increase, owing to a system developing to the west of our area. This system looks to provide a very complicated scenario during the second half of the week. Keep reading for all of the details.

THE FORECAST...
Today (Tuesday): Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy, with increasing clouds late. Low near 48. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

LATE WEEK EVENT COULD PROVE TROUBLESOME (AND CHILLY):

NAM Model showing potential for some frozen precip in the interior Thursday evening. Notice the surface temps in the 30's(left) and moderate precip (right) Also notice warmer temps near the coast & city.

 The pleasant weather of the beginning of the week will become somewhat of a distant memory as we approach Wednesday, and continue through Thursday. A strong gradient in the mid levels of the atmosphere will develop across the Northeast by the end of the week, and the gradient will eventually extend down towards the surface in the form of a well defined frontal boundary, which will settle near the area by Thursday morning. This frontal boundary will serve as a "highway" for low pressure and moderate to heavy precipitation to develop at the surface, as a strong disturbance moves over the boundary in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. Such a development would most certainly bring a threat of moderate to heavy precipitation to the forecast area, beginning on Thursday and continuing through Thursday evening. 


Making the situation more complicated is the intrusion of significant cold air which is expected behind the cold front. This will bring colder temperatures into the system on Thursday, and the potential would exist for some frozen precipitation (yes, we're serious) in the higher elevations and the distant interior. Such an event would be isolated and likely confined to the higher elevations, but it's definitely worth mentioning. To be clear, we aren't expecting anything frozen in the city or immediate suburbs, but if you live in Northwest NJ or the higher elevations of Connecticut or Southeast New York, you may want to keep a very close eye on this system for the potential for snow as the system winds down Thursday Night. 


Either way, behind the front, we're expecting some of the coldest air so far this fall. This weekend looks to provide more dramatics, as the boundary settles offshore. Forecast models are beginning to hint at the potential for a nor'easter developing along the front on Saturday. We'll keep you updated during the week as we get a better idea of what's going to transpire.


Article written by JH. Published October 25th, 2011 at 12:04am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

GFS model showing precipitation associated with a cold front near our area this afternoon.

Although the pesky surface low pressure that plagued our area with rain during the middle of last week exited the area a long time ago, the upper level disturbances are still circling around a larger disturbance over the entire Northeast United States. The result has been the presence of clouds and isolated showers during the afternoon over the past several days. Sun was more plentiful on Sunday, but high clouds are beginning to stream into the area once again this morning. The culprit is an approaching atmospheric disturbance over Eastern Canada, which will swing through the Northeast on Monday. It will bring a moderately strong cold front with it, which will be more recognizable by the temperature drop than any heavy rain. Still, clouds will be increasing by morning on Monday, and although we could still see some sun, showers are possible by the afternoon and through the early evening. By early Tuesday, the front and disturbance will have passed the area--so we are expecting much more sunshine on Tuesday. High temperatures today are expected to reach into the middle 60's, and overnight lows Monday evening into Tuesday morning will be chilly...falling into the 40's once again.

Late week disturbance could prove troublesome: A more significant cold front will near the area by later this week, and forecast models are showing signs of some stronger low pressure development on the front. Such a development would most certainly bring a threat of moderate to heavy precipitation to the forecast area. With the intrusion of significant cold air expected behind the cold front, the potential would exist for some frozen precipitation (yes, we're serious) in the higher elevations behind the front. Such an event would be isolated and likely confined to the higher elevations, but it's definitely worth mentioning. Either way, behind the front, we're expecting some of the coldest air so far this fall. We'll keep you updated during the week as we get a better idea of what's going to transpire.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Monday): Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. High near 65. West winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 30%, after 12pm.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early, with a chance of showers. Then clearing by dawn. Low near 50. West winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Article written by JH. Published October 24th, 2011 at 1:03am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM model showing high pressure dominating the area's weather this weekend.

For the second weekend in a row, fair conditions and plentiful sunshine are expected to control the weather throughout the area. This time though, the winds will be less of a factor and the weather will be completely pleasant (last weekend featured plenty of sun, but wind gusts over 40 miles per hour). A building high pressure is to thank, and it's moving in behind a significant low pressure system which hit our area with rain on Wednesday and winds on Thursday. The high pressure is building in from the west-southwest, but behind the storm system is bringing some very cool air. Daytime highs this weekend are forecast to reach only into the mid 60's, but the overnight low temperatures will likely make it feel more like late fall. Overnight, temperatures are forecast to drop into the 30's inland and 40's even in the city and metro areas. That being said, although it may feel a big crisp compared to the past several days, plenty of sunshine and a lack of unsettled weather or rain will make the weekend feel pleasant overall. A much needed break from the rain and storminess!

THE FORECAST...

Friday: Mostly sunny, high near 61. West winds 10 to 15 miles per hour, with an occasional gust near 20 miles per hour. Beautifully sunny, crisp autumn air throughout the day.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low in the upper 40's in the city, and upper 30's inland. West winds around 10 miles per hour. Definitely chilly if not cold in some spots.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 64. Northwest winds 5 miles per hour.  A bit warmer than Friday for sure, and the sun will be plentiful once again.

Article written by JH. Published October 21st, 2011 at 1:03am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming end of the week and weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.