NAM Model showing high pressure controlling our weather this weekend

The warm air which built throughout the area during the middle of this week was shunted out on Thursday, thanks to a strong disturbance in the middle of the atmosphere. At the surface, a cold front moved through the area late Thursday evening, and winds turned northwesterly. This helped to usher in a new Canadian airmass which, although only briefly, will take control of the areas weather this weekend. In addition, a deepening storm to our northeast will tuck in the cooler air and new airmass with a bit of ferocity, so that winds will be gusty on Friday and Friday evening. Generally, gusts upward of 20 miles per hour are possible during the afternoon...with some higher gusts to near or over 30 miles per hour possible in isolated locations. The main story will be the fact that temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50's on Friday. Still, the airmass is forecast to modify rather quickly, meaning the cold air source will only last a day or two. Highs are forecast to reach into the middle 50's on Saturday and to near 60 on Sunday, as the atmosphere rebounds with another mid level ridge. Finally, the forecast looks to turn unsettled once again by later Monday into Tuesday as another disturbance approaches. The weekend, though, looks to be pleasant...with plenty of sun. You'll just need to bring some warmer clothes along.


Today (Friday): Partly cloudy. High near 51. Breezy, with West winds 15 to 25 miles per hour. The winds could gust over 30 miles per hour at times. Feeling much cooler than the past several days--winds won't help.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low near 39. Still breezy, with winds gusting to near 20 miles per hour. Definitely bring along a warm jacket.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High near 54. A bit warmer, but still a northwest breeze. Not as bad as Friday, but it'll still feel pretty chilly out there at times. Luckily, we'll have plenty of sun.

Article written by JH. Published November 11th, 2011 at 11:27am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM Model showing low pressure developing well to our northeast (Blue dot is NYC)

Usually when cold fronts cross our area in the fall or spring, they can bring some pretty dramatic temperature differences as well as some fairly heavy precipitation. You probably remember the strong fall cold fronts of the past, bringing in winter-like air with a period of very heavy rain. Thursday's front, however, will have all of it's thunder stolen by Tropical Storm Sean which is currently spinning out in the Atlantic Ocean. How does this happen? Essentially, the moisture which would normally feed along or ahead of the cold front is involved in Sean. The interaction between this tropical disturbance and the mid level disturbancing kicking the cold front through will eventually produce heavy precipitation--but it will likely be to the east of our area. This precipitaiton is forecast to develop over Eastern New England Thursday Night into Friday, and may clip parts of Long Island. In fact, by Friday, a very strong cyclone is forecast to develop near Maine as the mid level disturbance over the Northeast interacts with Sean. Over our area, periods of drizzle and light showers are possible on Thursday, but it looks like we're going to avoid any moderate to heavy precipitation. Cold air will move in behind the front, bringing breezy conditions on Friday and Saturday...especially with the storm rapidly deepening to our northeast.


Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers. High near 62. Total rainfall less than 0.10".
 
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. Overnight low near 41.

Article written by JH. Published November 10th, 2011 at 12:51am. Looking for a forecast? Use our new Forecast Beta tool to see the latest forecast in your specific area for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

GFS model showing precipitation associated with a cold front near our area this afternoon.

Although the pesky surface low pressure that plagued our area with rain during the middle of last week exited the area a long time ago, the upper level disturbances are still circling around a larger disturbance over the entire Northeast United States. The result has been the presence of clouds and isolated showers during the afternoon over the past several days. Sun was more plentiful on Sunday, but high clouds are beginning to stream into the area once again this morning. The culprit is an approaching atmospheric disturbance over Eastern Canada, which will swing through the Northeast on Monday. It will bring a moderately strong cold front with it, which will be more recognizable by the temperature drop than any heavy rain. Still, clouds will be increasing by morning on Monday, and although we could still see some sun, showers are possible by the afternoon and through the early evening. By early Tuesday, the front and disturbance will have passed the area--so we are expecting much more sunshine on Tuesday. High temperatures today are expected to reach into the middle 60's, and overnight lows Monday evening into Tuesday morning will be chilly...falling into the 40's once again.

Late week disturbance could prove troublesome: A more significant cold front will near the area by later this week, and forecast models are showing signs of some stronger low pressure development on the front. Such a development would most certainly bring a threat of moderate to heavy precipitation to the forecast area. With the intrusion of significant cold air expected behind the cold front, the potential would exist for some frozen precipitation (yes, we're serious) in the higher elevations behind the front. Such an event would be isolated and likely confined to the higher elevations, but it's definitely worth mentioning. Either way, behind the front, we're expecting some of the coldest air so far this fall. We'll keep you updated during the week as we get a better idea of what's going to transpire.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Monday): Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. High near 65. West winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 30%, after 12pm.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early, with a chance of showers. Then clearing by dawn. Low near 50. West winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Article written by JH. Published October 24th, 2011 at 1:03am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

Temperature change over the last 24 hours (valid early Friday morning)

The coolest air of the past several months arrived in the forecast area Thursday afternoon, and is still in place today. A cold front swept through the area Thursday Night, effectively ushering in a Canadian airmass with gusty northwest winds. The rapidly dropping dew points are adding to the shocking air--making it feel very crisp. The temperatures dropped more than 20 degrees in some locations (see the map to the right) after the cold front passed last night, and some spots were forecast to dip down into the upper 30's for lows (mostly the interior and higher elevations). No matter how you slice it, it's going to feel downright chilly compared to the past several days (and weeks) of relatively warm summer weather this morning. High temperatures today are forecast to reach into the lower to mid 60's at the very most--a drastic change. As mentioned, the dew points will be low as well. Winds could be gusty in the afternoon, out of the northwest, near 20 miles per hour at times. Overall, it's going to feel like a mid-autumn day throughout, so we hope you're ready. There will be plenty more days like today to come over the next few months. 


THE FORECAST...


Today (Friday): Beautifully sunny, with some stray fair weather clouds. High temperatures in the low to mid 60's, low dew points, and beautifully crisp air. Northwest winds may be gusty for a bit during the afternoon---near 20 miles per hour at times. We'd recommend long sleeves and jeans, but the sun can still feel warm this time of year. You'll have to gauge it yourself! A wonderful fall day throughout the area (even though it's still summer!).


Friday Night: Partly cloudy, and still feeling chilly with northwest winds and a cool airmass still in place. Winds will be light, skies will be clearing. May be a degree or two warmer than last night, but overall no major change. 


A BRAND NEW FEATURE...

We invite you to check out our newest feature, interactive forecast (beta). Here's the low down: eventually, we want this product to replace our text forecast page. It adds more functionality, and you can get more accurate forecasts for your location (whether you live in NW NJ or on Long Island), instead of a forecast for just New York City. However, it's still in testing. We're still working ironing out some details.

So go check it out, and let us know what you think. This forecast is not computerized--it is updated by our forecasters at least twice daily. Send us an email, or give us a shout out on Facebook or Twitter to let us know what you think. We're looking forward to hearing from you!


Article written by John Homenuk, September 16th, 2011 at 12:36am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Temperatures in NJ at 6pm (9/15/11)

The coolest air of the past several months has arrived in the forecast area this afternoon and early evening. A cold front swept through the area earlier today, and is ushering in the airmass with gusty northwest winds. The rapidly dropping dew points are adding to the shocking air--making it feel very crisp. Through tonight, it appears likely that the winds will die down at least a bit, and the temperatures will continue to drop as the cold airmass makes it's way here. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 40's throughout much of the interior, but may stay closer to 50 in the immediate New York City Metro area. No matter how you slice it, it's going to feel downright chilly compared to the past several days (and weeks) of relatively warm summer weather. The temperature drop could be more than 30 degrees by this evening, and the higher elevations have a chance of dropping into the upper 30's! I think it's safe to say, at this point, that autumn isn't far away. It's certainly doing it's best to let us know.

THE FORECAST... 

Through Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy early, with a stray shower or two. Then, becoming mostly clear and much colder. Temperatures dropping into the upper 30's to mid 40's inland, and upper 40's to near 50 in the city. Northwest winds 5-10 miles per hour gusting to 20 mph early. I think it's safe to say, you're going to want a sweatshirt and long pants..maybe a jacket, too.

Friday: Beautifully sunny, with some stray fair weather clouds. High temperatures in the low to mid 60's, low dew points, and beautifully crisp air. A wonderful fall day throughout the area (even though it's still summer!).

A BRAND NEW FEATURE...

We invite you to check out our newest feature, interactive forecast (beta). Here's the low down: eventually, we want this product to replace our text forecast page. It adds more functionality, and you can get more accurate forecasts for your location (whether you live in NW NJ or on Long Island), instead of a forecast for just New York City. However, it's still in testing. We're still working ironing out some details.

So go check it out, and let us know what you think. This forecast is not computerized--it is updated by our forecasters at least twice daily. Send us an email, or give us a shout out on Facebook or Twitter to let us know what you think. We're looking forward to hearing from you!

Article written by John Homenuk, September 15th, 2011 at 6:44pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model showing low's in the 30's and 40's Friday AM

A cold front currently situated to our west over Pennsylvania, associated with a disturbance in the middle levels of the atmosphere, will move through the area beginning this morning and afternoon. The first sign of the front will be a wind shift at the surface--where the winds will shift from southerly to westerly. During this shift and for the hours after it, showers and thunderstorms will be scattered throughout the area. Finally, temperatures are forecast to drop rather rapidly in the afternoon. In fact, the temperature drop could be as much as 30 degrees. High temperatures in the early afternoon could actually reach towards 80--and then drop near 50 overnight. Winds will increase as well gust out of the northwest by evening. With clearing skies, a much cooler airmass, lower dew points, and light northwest winds...radiational cooling will be ideal Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures will drop accordingly, to near record-low levels, especially in the interior. Forecast models currently indicate low temperatures could reach into the upper 30's (yes, that says upper 30's, not a typo) to lower 40's in the interior and higher elevations, and more towards the upper 40's to near 50 in the city and surrounding areas. Either way you slice it, it will feel shockingly cool after the airmass we've been in for a few weeks.



Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely, especially during the morning and afternoon. High temperatures near 80 degrees in the city and New Jersey, and in the 70's inland and near the shore. Temperatures dropping rapidly by late afternoon in all areas. Winds will turn west by afternoon. Bring the rain gear along--but we really can't suggest short or long sleeves. It's really a toss up, depending on what time of day you're going out.

Tonight: Okay, now we can recommend long sleeves. Maybe a sweatshirt, too. Temperatures will be near record-low levels in the interior (upper 30's to low 40's)...and the upper 40's to near 50 in the city. The 30 degree drop in temperatures will feel rather shocking, so be prepared.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 15th, 2011 at 12:32am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model's forecast high temps for today (Wednesday 9-14-11)

In a very similar fashion to the first few days of the week, Wednesday looks to feature pleasant weather and  may even stretch a bit towards the warm side. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the middle to upper 80's by late afternoon, and the southwest winds will keep the air feeling warm as well (no ocean component). Today looks to be another day to keep out the shorts and short sleeved shirts. After all, how many warm days like this do we have left? History says not many, as our odds of reaching higher than the mid to upper 80's go down dramatically after this week. In addition, a strong cold front is forecast to approach the area by Thursday afternoon, ushering in the coldest air of the past several months. Back to tonight, temperatures should only drop into the low 60's. There will also be a chance of a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm, but again, nothing overly intrusive or strong. By evening, skies should become more partly cloudy and the weather should be fair. You may want to at least consider a long sleeved shirt near the shore--we are past the days of very warm weather there throughout the night. The temperature can still drop into the low 60's with a good breeze.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Partly cloudy, warm, highs in the mid to upper 80's. Essentially, a beautiful summer day. Winds southwest at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Slight chance of a widely scattered shower or storm. We'd recommend shorts and short sleeves---by afternoon you'll likely be too hot if you're wearing anything heavier than that.

Tonight (Wednesday Night): A slight chance of a widely scattered shower or storm early, then becoming partly cloudy with low temperatures in the low 60's. Winds remaining southwest, so the evening should continue the comfortable weather trend.

MUCH COOLER AIR ON THE WAY...

A significant mid level disturbance is forecast to drop southeast from Central Canada later this week, bringing with it the coldest air of the past several months. We've got the details on a featured blog post right here. 


Article written by John Homenuk, September 14th, 2011 at 12:05am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model showing 40 degree lows Friday morning

A significant mid level disturbance is forecast to drop southeast from Central Canada later this week, bringing with it the coldest air of the past several months. You may hear those words a lot, but in reality we have not seen air like this since March of 2011. The disturbance is drawing upon cold air which has been building in North-Central Canada for several weeks, and although the air will not be as cold as it was there, overnight low temperatures are likely to be shockingly cool if you live in the interior. A cold front is poised to cross the forecast area Thursday afternoon, and after some showers and thunderstorms, a rapid temperature drop will occur. Winds will shift from southwest to northwest (and gusty, at that). Temperatures are forecast to fall from the mid 80's to the mid 40's overnight. In fact, temperatures in the interior higher elevations may drop into the upper 30's to low 40's early Friday morning (before sunset).

The cool airmass will remain in place Friday and Saturday, with high temperatures forecast to top out in the middle to upper 60's and upper 60's to near 70 respectively. In addition, the rapid drop in dew points will make the air feel much more crisp and clear--it's really going to begin to feel like autumn later this week. Essentially, Wednesday looks to be the last day (for a while at least, we can't rule anything out yet) to get out and enjoy the warm sun this week. It should be noted that record low temperatures are in the mid 40's throughout most of the city, so it will likely be difficult to break the records (hence the post title "near record breaking cold")...but the change in airmasses will be dramatic. Stay with us over the next few days as the airmass changes and the autumn feel floats through the air.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 13th, 2011 at 11:53pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model's forecast high temperatures for today (Tuesday 9-13-2011)

Today (Tuesday) looks to be the second straight gorgeous day in our forecast area, with relatively low humidity, clear skies, and pleasantly warm temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80's. In a very similar fashion to Monday, some widely scattered showers or storms will be possible during the afternoon. However, they will not be much of a problem and won't be widespread, so we wouldn't exactly urge you to bring along your rain gear. Today looks like a great day to rock the short sleeves and shorts one more time, as the days of summer slowly dwindle down. We know, we aren't thrilled about it either. The winds will be out of the south-southwest, a typically warm and pleasant wind direction for our area, and Tuesday will be no different. The evening looks to feature some increase in scattered clouds, and temperatures dropping to near 70 in the city, and the mid to upper 60's elsewhere. If you're away from the metro, or near the water,  bring a long sleeved shirt just in case.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Tuesday): Beautifully sunny, with a stray cloud here or there. High temperatures will reach into the low to mid 80's by afternoon. Winds will be west-southwest throughout most of the day. As mentioned above, short sleeves and shorts look like the best bet during the day.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, but rain free for sure. Low temperatures dropping to near 70 in the city, and the low to mid 60's elsewhere. Probably a toss up on long/short sleeves depending on your tolerance, so it's your call.

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR AHEAD...

The main story of the forecast is the intrusion of unseasonably cool air, which is poised to enter our area by the latter half of the work week. A strong cold front, moving in from the west-northwest on Thursday, will usher in the coldest air of the last 5 months (and possibly longer) from Canada. Along the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms look to be a likely occurrence. Temperatures are forecast to drop dramatically behind the front, and after it's passage, overnight low temperatures could drop into the 40's and 50's throughout the forecast area. High temperatures later in the week may barely scrape into the middle 60's. It will certainly begin to feel more like autumn as we close out the week and begin to look forward to the weekend. Stay tuned for further details as the first real "cold front" of the season approaches.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 13th, 2011 at 12:51am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model's forecast highs for today (9/12/11)

The second half of the weekend was marked by increased cloudiness and chances for showers, and although the showers were extremely isolated, the cloudy weather and higher dew points certainly made for less than comfortable conditions. The culprit was a back door cold front which moved in off the ocean Saturday evening. The winds off the water helped to create a cooler and more stable airmass beginning then, and it continued through Sunday with overcast conditions throughout most of the area. However, the good news is that the back door cold front has been essentially washed out and weakened, so that winds will turn southwest again by Monday morning and afternoon. The result will be warmer temperatures, near 80, and partly cloudy skies. Overall, it will feel much more pleasant throughout. There is a chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm, but they won't be too widespread.


Today (Monday): Partly cloudy and warmer, with highs in the lower 80's and upper 70's near the shore. Winds will be southwest, a big change from yesterday which featured winds off the water. The combination of sun and changed wind direction will make it feel much more pleasant and warmer--short sleeves are likely a good choice.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with overnight lows in the upper 60's in the city, and lower 60's inland. Winds will be southwest throughout the evening, but it still may be cooler near the water so you may want to bring long sleeves along.

A look ahead: Temperatures will be in the 80's on both Tuesday and Wednesday, but by Wednesday afternoon, eyes will begin to turn to a cold front which will be approaching from the west. This front will certainly act to bring in a lower dew point and cooler airmass---so it's only a matter of time until the high temperatures in the 80's are a memory.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 12th, 2011 at 12:10am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.