NAM model showing 40 degree lows Friday morning

A significant mid level disturbance is forecast to drop southeast from Central Canada later this week, bringing with it the coldest air of the past several months. You may hear those words a lot, but in reality we have not seen air like this since March of 2011. The disturbance is drawing upon cold air which has been building in North-Central Canada for several weeks, and although the air will not be as cold as it was there, overnight low temperatures are likely to be shockingly cool if you live in the interior. A cold front is poised to cross the forecast area Thursday afternoon, and after some showers and thunderstorms, a rapid temperature drop will occur. Winds will shift from southwest to northwest (and gusty, at that). Temperatures are forecast to fall from the mid 80's to the mid 40's overnight. In fact, temperatures in the interior higher elevations may drop into the upper 30's to low 40's early Friday morning (before sunset).

The cool airmass will remain in place Friday and Saturday, with high temperatures forecast to top out in the middle to upper 60's and upper 60's to near 70 respectively. In addition, the rapid drop in dew points will make the air feel much more crisp and clear--it's really going to begin to feel like autumn later this week. Essentially, Wednesday looks to be the last day (for a while at least, we can't rule anything out yet) to get out and enjoy the warm sun this week. It should be noted that record low temperatures are in the mid 40's throughout most of the city, so it will likely be difficult to break the records (hence the post title "near record breaking cold")...but the change in airmasses will be dramatic. Stay with us over the next few days as the airmass changes and the autumn feel floats through the air.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 13th, 2011 at 11:53pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.