NAM model forecast lows tonight

A frontal boundary near the area today provided a cloudy, dreary, and showery scene throughout much of the morning and afternoon. Showers developed late this morning to our west, and moved eastward over our area. Although not steady, heavy, or persistent, they were enough to provide a light measurable rainfall to most of the area. Streets were wet throughout much of the afternoon. However, there have been improvements this afternoon and evening as the front shifts east. Clearing skies and breaks in the clouds are spreading throughout the area and should continue to do so through tonight. We have a weak area of higher pressure to thank, and through the evening it appears that we will be able to avoid any additional showery activity. The same will not be true for the rest of the week, though, so we encourage you to enjoy it while you can! Temperatures tonight are falling into the upper 50's to low 60's, not as cool as the past several nights.

THE FORECAST...

Through Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low near 60 in the city. Lows in the 50's inland and nearer to the shore. Winds south at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Long sleeves most likely a good decision, but you could get away with shorts if you're in a warmer area.

Wednesday: Warmer, and partly cloudy early, then becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High near 78. South winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Short sleeves are a good idea, for the first time in a while. It'll feel warmer than the past several days.

SUMMER 2011 RECAP & MORE...

You can view our Summer 2011 | By the numbers recap, and also take a look at our post detailing the near 10 year low in sea ice extent this past week. Both posts are featured links at the top of the blog. We appreciate your comments and discussion, and look forward to interacting with you.


Article written by John Homenuk. Published September 20th, 2011 at 7:02pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM Model's forecast lows tonight

An absolutely gorgeous Monday is wrapping up as we type this evening, and the skies remain relatively clear.  Today featured plenty of sun and warmer temperatures, approaching the upper 60's to 70 in many locations. Although the winds were east, they remained relatively light. Helping the situation, high clouds generally held off for the day and the early evening. Over the next several hours, though, you'll begin to notice their presence. They are moving towards our area in advance of a mid level disturbance in the atmosphere which is currently over the Central United States, but is shifting towards the Northeast US. As it does so, clouds will increase tonight into Tuesday morning, and a warm front near the area on Tuesday will enhance the chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. More importantly, clouds will be around for much of the day..keeping temperatures again in the middle 60's, and the air generally less comfortable. The lack of sun certainly won't help things. That being said, we'll all try to enjoy the next few hours of pleasant weather through tonight. Low temperatures tonight aren't forecast to be as cool (actually, nearly 10 degrees warmer in the city)..with lows in the 50's to around 60 in the metro.

THE FORECAST...

Through Tonight: Partly cloudy early, then increasing high clouds which will eventually lower and thicken. Low temperatures in the upper 50's to near 60 in the city, and mid 50's elsewhere. There is a chance of a spotty shower after midnight.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers possible throughout the day. High temperatures only in the mid 60's. With east winds around 10 miles per hour, it certainly won't be the most pleasant day.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...

The forecast takes a highly unsettled turn as a low pressure system over the Central US moves towards our area the middle of the week. Wednesday will be the warmest day, with temperatures rising into the middle 70's. However, clouds and the potential for showers will muddle up the forecast. This will continue through Friday--before the system looks to move out for the weekend.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 19th, 2011 at 7:17pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model's forecast low temperatures tonight

In a weekend characterized by fall-like weather throughout the area, the trend will continue as we close it  out. This evening is expected to be another pleasant one, with partly cloudy skies accompanied by cool and crisp conditions. A storm system off to our east continues to shift away from the area, and it will bring the clouds (which interfered with the area's weather on both Friday and Saturday) with it. Through tonight, high pressure is expected to build back in and take control of the area's weather once again. This high pressure is forecast to dominate the forecast through Monday and the first half of Tuesday. Tonight's low temperatures look to be heading to very cool numbers once again, with the city and metro area dropping into the 50's and the interior/suburban areas and higher elevations falling into the 40's. We hope you had a great weekend, and hope you are able to enjoy the pleasant weather over the next several hours as we try and hold on to the last few hours of Sunday.

Through Tonight: Mostly sunny through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Temperatures in the 60's with light northeast winds. Then, mostly clear through the evening with temperatures dropping into the low 50's in the city. Cooler inland, with temperatures in the mid 40's.

Monday: Mostly sunny and a bit warmer than the past few days--overall a beautiful day. High temperatures will approach the upper 60's to near 70. Winds will be relatively light.


The work week looks to follow the trend of the past several days, with some fair days and some unsettled days. High pressure will be in control on Monday and the first half of Tuesday, bringing fair weather. In fact, it could return towards normal levels on both of those days with high temperatures climbing into the lower 70's and mid 70's respectively. By Tuesday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of a warm front. The forecast may remain unsettled, with a chance of showers, through the middle of the week.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 18th, 2011 at 4:08pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend and next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Visible satellite imagery at 630pm 9/17/11

Today was defined mostly by the presence of mid level clouds, which got in the way by the late morning after a few hours of bright sun to start the day.  These clouds developed in response to a mid level disturbance, which moved from west to east from the Ohio Valley, towards the Mid Atlantic, and then offshore today. Although our area was spared the precipitation, the clouds definitely got in the way of what would have otherwise been a pleasant and sunny day. Instead of sun, mostly cloudy skies prevailed and some showers scraped the New Jersey shore. They may scrape long island as well through the evening. Generally though, over the next several hours, these clouds are expected to thin and move east and offshore. This should set the stage for a relatively calm and pleasant evening, with partly cloudy skies and cooling temperatures. The lack of clouds and light winds should allow for good radiating, and temperatures will drop again into the lower 50's in the metro area. In the interior, temperatures should again fall into the mid to upper 40's.

THE FORECAST...

Through Tonight: Mostly cloudy early, then becoming partly cloudy overnight. A chance of showers on the NJ shore and Long Island early, then becoming partly cloudy there as well. Low temperatures dropping into the lower 50's in the metro area, and the mid to upper 40's. Winds light and out of the northeast. We'd recommend long sleeves and probably a sweatshirt.

Sunday: Again the possibility of clouds developing by afternoon, but there should be a few more hours of sun than on Saturday. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 60's during the afternoon. Winds again northeast at 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 17th, 2011 at 6:31pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend and next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Temperatures in NJ at 6pm (9/15/11)

The coolest air of the past several months has arrived in the forecast area this afternoon and early evening. A cold front swept through the area earlier today, and is ushering in the airmass with gusty northwest winds. The rapidly dropping dew points are adding to the shocking air--making it feel very crisp. Through tonight, it appears likely that the winds will die down at least a bit, and the temperatures will continue to drop as the cold airmass makes it's way here. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 40's throughout much of the interior, but may stay closer to 50 in the immediate New York City Metro area. No matter how you slice it, it's going to feel downright chilly compared to the past several days (and weeks) of relatively warm summer weather. The temperature drop could be more than 30 degrees by this evening, and the higher elevations have a chance of dropping into the upper 30's! I think it's safe to say, at this point, that autumn isn't far away. It's certainly doing it's best to let us know.

THE FORECAST... 

Through Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy early, with a stray shower or two. Then, becoming mostly clear and much colder. Temperatures dropping into the upper 30's to mid 40's inland, and upper 40's to near 50 in the city. Northwest winds 5-10 miles per hour gusting to 20 mph early. I think it's safe to say, you're going to want a sweatshirt and long pants..maybe a jacket, too.

Friday: Beautifully sunny, with some stray fair weather clouds. High temperatures in the low to mid 60's, low dew points, and beautifully crisp air. A wonderful fall day throughout the area (even though it's still summer!).

A BRAND NEW FEATURE...

We invite you to check out our newest feature, interactive forecast (beta). Here's the low down: eventually, we want this product to replace our text forecast page. It adds more functionality, and you can get more accurate forecasts for your location (whether you live in NW NJ or on Long Island), instead of a forecast for just New York City. However, it's still in testing. We're still working ironing out some details.

So go check it out, and let us know what you think. This forecast is not computerized--it is updated by our forecasters at least twice daily. Send us an email, or give us a shout out on Facebook or Twitter to let us know what you think. We're looking forward to hearing from you!

Article written by John Homenuk, September 15th, 2011 at 6:44pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Latest IR satellite (auto updates)

We hope you have enjoyed the weather thus far this weekend, as it's definitely served as a much needed break from rainy and dreary conditions which stuck around most of the work week. Unfortunately, the second half of the weekend doesn't look overly promising. Although it won't be a washout, a back door cold front (a cold front which moves from east to west as opposed to west to east) will enter the area tonight into Sunday morning, and will bring in cooler air off the ocean. In addition, increased humidity and cloudiness will enter the forecast, making for less than ideal conditions on Sunday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist throughout the area beginning tonight and continuing through all of Sunday, although Sunday's precipitation should be more showery. The atmosphere won't be unstable enough to support many thunderstorms. It won't be continuous or non-stop, but it definitely will be noticeably different than Friday and the first half of today.


Tonight (Saturday Night): Mostly cloudy with an increased chance of showers throughout the evening. Temperatures will drop into the middle 60's. East winds off the ocean will make the air feel a bit more raw. Definitely bring a sweatshirt along if you're going to be near the ocean.

Tomorrow (Sunday): Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers throughout the day. High temperatures only in the middle 70's. The showers won't be continuous, but will be on and off/scattered throughout the day. You may want to be cautious and bring rain gear along.

An early look ahead to the week: Some clearing is forecast by early next week, but the main story that we're looking ahead to is the potential for our first "fall like" cold front, which could enter the area by the middle to later part of the week. If it does come to fruition, the dew points would lower greatly and the air would feel crisp and fresh for the first time in a while. We'll see!

Article written by John Homenuk, September 10th, 2011 at 7:04pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model's forecast low temperatures tonight.

After several days of dreary, raw, and rainy conditions, the forecast is finally beginning to look more favorable as we begin to approach the end of the week and look ahead to the weekend. The heaviest rain has shifted well to our west and southwest this afternoon and early this evening, and is forecast to remain there through tonight. In fact, the disturbance over the Tennessee Valley and the frontal boundary near our area have weakened, likely suggesting that the heavy rain is over. There is still a chance of a few showers, but in all likelihood we're looking at improving conditions overnight tonight into Friday. Clouds will be around for the first half of the overnight, but by Friday it appears we're going to break into sunshine for the first time in several days. Tonight, however, will remain a bit unpleasant with a humid airmass still in place and temperatures dropping into the upper 60's to near 70, and a chance of isolated showers. However, it's a good night when you compare it to the last few, which featured heavy rain and raw conditions.

THE FORECAST...

Through Tonight (Thursday Night): Cloudy early, with a chance of spotty shower included in the forecast. Overall, not too bad compared to the last several nights. The clouds could break towards midnight. Temperatures dropping into the mid 60's, and the east winds will continue. It won't be a warm night, so you may want to consider longer-sleeved/autumn type gear if you're going to be out and about.

Tomorrow (Friday): Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be the story, but everyone will surely be enjoying the breaks of sun that come with the forecast. High temperatures will reach towards 80 in the afternoon, making it feel warmer than the past several days this week. There's a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but nothing too intrusive. Short sleeved gear will probably be the way to go.

A look ahead to the weekend: This weekend looks to offer improved conditions throughout our forecast area. Temperatures will rebound beginning on Friday, as mentioned, towards the lower 80's, with the sun returning as well. Saturday looks to offer a similar forecast, while Sunday may bring a slightly higher chance of thunderstorms as a front nears the area. A bit of a side note, but Friday may both offer high surf and dangerous rip tides near the area beaches as Katia passes to our east. 


Article written by John Homenuk,  September 8th, 2011 at 6:25pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week and weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Radar image from wxunderground shows movement and intensity of precipitation over the last hour. Click to enlarge.

Rain continued to fall throughout much of the area today, and although it was not as steady or continuous as it  was on Tuesday it was enough to keep the day dreary and damp. High temperatures throughout the area only reached into the upper 60's to near 70 (67 at Central Park, 68 at LaGuardia, 71 at Newark and JFK), and winds remained stiff and out of the east, off the ocean. The maritime air kept dew points relatively high, and the atmosphere remains very moist. In fact, PW (precipitatble water) values are still near 2.0 which is fairly anomalous for our area this time of year. Over the next several hours, into the evening and overnight, moderate to heavy showers are expected to continue off and on. Forecast models are showing the potential for some steadier heavy rain over New Jersey, but remain highly inconsistent in regards to it's exact placement. With that said, it appears that regardless of where the heaviest rain falls, the showers will be relatively widespread and capable of producing moderate to heavy rain at any time. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60's overnight tonight, and the east wind will continue, making it another damp and dreary night this week.

THE FORECAST...


Through Tonight (Wednesday Night): Cloudy with showers likely throughout the evening. The rain could be heavy at times. East winds around 10 miles per hour and temperatures in the 60's will keep a raw feeling in the air. Bring a long sleeved shirt, jeans, or a sweatshirt and rain gear.


Thursday: Cloudy with rain likely, especially before 2pm. The rain may be heavy at times. The day will begin similarly to the last few: cloudy, rainy, and relatively cool outdoors. Bring rain gear and warm clothing. By late afternoon, we could see a decrease in shower activity and a bit of a warming trend in temperatures. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday, reaching into the mid 70's.


TROPICAL UPDATE...

Forecast model tracks for Tropical Storm Maria (9/7/11)

Tropical Storm's Maria and Nate officially formed today in the Central Atlantic and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, respectively. Maria has sustained winds near 50 miles per hour, and Nate with winds near 45 miles per hour, at the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) update from 8:00pm. Maria will certainly be the bigger topic of conversation in our area, as she continues on a northwest heading from the south-central Atlantic towards the Carribean. She is currently forecast to pass north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic this weekend. Although she is beginning farther south than Katia, early indications from forecast models are that Maria may take a similar path between the East Coast of the US and Bermuda, affecting neither. That being said, the system is still very far from land and several days away from her approach towards the United States. Much can change over that time span which could affect her ultimate path. We will certainly be keeping a close eye on her in the meantime.

Article written by John Homenuk,  September 7th, 2011 at 8:20pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Current radar image from wxunderground shows  themovement and intensity of precipitation over the last hour. Click to enlarge.

Heavy rain, spreading throughout the entire area, is the story for the remainder of the evening without any doubt. A frontal boundary stalled near the area, and the interactions between the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee and a disturbance near the Great Lakes will prove to be the focal points for the heavy rain over the next several hours. Although the rain is forecast to lift north and west of the area with time, the next few hours could be an all out deluge as the rain has already been in progress for several hours. The National Weather Service continues Flood Warnings for many parts of the forecast area through Wednesday morning. The rain is heaviest over the city and just to the west of there over Central and Northern New Jersey. The areas that seem to be escaping the heaviest rain are the New Jersey shore and the East end of Long Island. Over the next several hours, expected continued poor conditions over those areas--and the rain eventually beginning to push north and west towards Northwest New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania. Rain amounts could easily exceed 2 to 3 inches in much of the area west of New York City. Temperatures will run in the lower 60's through the evening, and east winds will make it feel raw outside.

NAM models forecast lows for tonight

Temperatures today, although warmer than the past several days, have so far been held down by clouds which began entering the area earlier this afternoon around 3:00pm. The clouds are mostly located to the north over New Jersey, Southeast New York, and the New York City area, where temperatures decidedly stopped rising around that time. In fact, many areas will likely have recorded their daily highs around 1 or 2 pm. Farther south, and even near the shore, temperatures were a degree or two warmer as the daytime sun was able to warm things up. The summer-air is still here, though, as dew points in the upper 60's to near 70 remain in place over the area. This will keep the air feeling humid and warm through this evening. Temperatures are expected to remain comfortably warm, though, so don't let the clouds fool you if your'e going to be headed out for the labor day weekend tonight. A short sleeved shirt and shorts will still suffice for this evening.

Severe storms only an isolated threat: The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of severe weather over Pennsylvania and Northwest New Jersey, but the threat is expected to be scattered with the potential for a few damaging wind gusts if any storms can make there way into the area. Farther to the south and east over New Jersey and the New York City Metro area, the threat will be far more isolated.. In fact, the threat for any rain will be isolated through this evening. We'll keep you updated.

Tonight (Sunday Night): A slight chance of thunderstorms, with low temperatures dropping only to near 70. Again, short sleeved shirts and shorts will be fine, but you may want to bring a sweatshirt along near the shore as it may be a bit cooler there with southerly winds (especially true for the south shore of long island with a wind off the water.

Tomorrow (Labor Day): Unfortunately, Labor Day looks to feature a rising chance of rain and cloudiness, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will only reach towards the low 80's, with south winds. The rain and thunderstorms could be heavy at times. Definitely bring rain gear and a sweatshirt along if you're going to be outside.

Tropics and heavy rain to highlight next week: Unfortunately, the beautiful weather we've been experiencing over the past several days seems to finally be losing it's grip on the area, at least judging from most forecast models and the pattern evolution over the next several days.. Tropical Storm Lee is forecast to make landfall on the Gulf Coast and move inland---and then phase/interact with a northern stream disturbance over the Central US (pictured to the left with the remnants of lee just to it's east over PA). The result will be the development of moderate to heavy rain and a low pressure system moving along a front near the area Monday Night into Tuesday. The forecast remains highly uncertain, though...so don't cancel any plans yet. Low confidence forecast to say the least.

Forecast model tracks for Katia (9/4/11)

Katia rapidly strengthening: Katia strengthened to a hurricane overnight and and is showing continued signs of organization, with maximum sustained winds now at 105 miles per hour. Lee remains a Tropical Storm over the Louisiana coast  as of the 5:00pm National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory. As far as impacts on our area (we already discussed Lee's remnants and potential for impacts), Katia still looks to recurve to our east over the open waters of the Atlantic. However, the storm is still several days away so we urge caution in the forecast track beyond around 3 days or so. The statistics, synoptics, and meteorology argue against any track that could impact our area, but it's important to remember how far away the storm is, and how much the pattern could change as it moves towards our area. We will, of course, keep you updated. 

Article written September 4th, 2011 at 5:32pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM models forecast low temps through Sunday morning

If you haven't been outside today to notice it already, the air has that muggy summertime feel once again, one that hasn't been present in the area in a few weeks at the very least. Well before Irene, a generally cooler pattern was in place, and Irene's passage only helped to clear the airmass. In fact, our area hasn't experienced humid and muggy/hot conditions since the first week or two of August. Today, although temperatures were only in the mid 80's,  dew points were in the upper 60's to near 70, which is very high...and adding to the summer-like feel in our area. This weather is forecast to continue through Sunday, with a chance of scattered showers and storms throughout the afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday are actually forecast to make an approach towards 90, and with the dew points similar today, it will feel warm (if not hot) outside to say the least.


Tonight (Saturday Night): Partly cloudy, with a slight chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm later in the evening. Winds continuing southwest at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Humid air will make it feel much warmer--and overnight lows will only drop to near 70. Short sleeved shirts and shorts look like the best idea.

Sunday: Partly cloudy and warmer, with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Southwest winds turning south at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Humid air once again--short sleeved shirts and shorts (if not a bathing suit) is the recommended wear. High temperatures in the upper 80's to near 90.

Evening Tropical Update: We won't know more until the 500pm National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory, and we'll update the post at that time, but for now...Katia continues at minimal Category 1 Hurricane Strength, and Lee remains a tropical storm just off the Louisiana coast. The bigger impact for our area looks to be Tropical Storm Lee, which could eventually move inland and north and east towards the TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic...providing our area with moderate to heavy rainfall. Katia's track continues to look seaward...but the trend west in the models suggests we should keep an eye on it at the very least.

Article written September 3rd, 2011 at 4:15pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

The backdoor cold front which was forecast to impact the area certainly arrived with a bit less enthusiasm than the forecast guidance had been showing, and as a result it appears that we should be able to salvage this Thursday evening. Temperatures today were able to climb into the low to mid 80's, and it felt warm with dew points a slight bit higher than the past few days. The sun was shining at least through around 2:00pm throughout most of the area, and the beaches even were able to maintain a westerly wind component until then, keeping the surface temperatures warm and keeping the seabreeze at bay. Still, high clouds rolled in during the middle of the afternoon generally capping off the warming which would have otherwise continued into the middle and upper 80's. A sea breeze developed near the shore, touching off some scattered clouds and cooled down temperatures significantly, but most areas away from the immediate shore have been able to maintain warm and pleasant conditions.

Through Tonight: Forecast models have backed off on the presence of clouds and potential showers, with the showers now forecast to impact mostly Central Pennsylvania, well to our west. There could still be a few clouds around, but overall the evening should end up rather pleasant. If you're near the shore, though, bring a long sleeved shirt as the cool winds off the water will make it feel a bit more chilly there, especially overnight. Inland, temperatures will once again drop into the 50's without the presence of clouds to hold the daytime heat at the surface. Clear skies means good radiating, and temperatures will drop in the north and west suburbs.

ISS to gleam bright in the night sky: The International Space Station will once again pass over our area, this time with a much brighter gleam. The space station will pass over at 8:22pm, with a magnitude of -4.0, or "super bright" as defined by NASA. Look to the west-northwest around 8:20pm ass the ISS rises, and watch it pass overhead. The space station will look similar to a very bright planet--in fact, it will be the brightest object in the sky since the moon doesn't appear until later.

Katia Update: Katia has weakened to a Tropical Storm once again this evening, dropping from hurricane strength earlier today. She continues to churn in the waters of the Eastern Atlantic today. Katia now has sustained winds of 70 miles per hour, making her a strong Tropical Storm just a touch below Hurricane strength. Katia is struggling a bit with dry air and shear, but strengthening is forecast over the next several days. Most forecast guidance strengthens her into a Major Hurricane by early next week. Wondering about her potential impacts on our area? Historically, storms that form in Katia's position and move on her heading have a less than 20 percent chance of making landfall on United States soil. We will certainly keep an eye on her, though!


Article written September 1st, 2011 at 7:08pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the end of the week into the weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

The first half of today wound up being absolutely splendid, and actually quite warm, as temperatures warmed into the lower to mid 80's throughout the area. The morning and early afternoon were filled with plenty of sun, and even though temperatures started our somewhat low (overnight lows dipped into the 50's in many locations), early afternoon temperatures were able to rebound and it felt mighty warm throughout the area. To make things better, a westerly wind component kept a strong seabreeze from developing, so those who were at the beaches were able to enjoy it fully.  By afternoon, however, a mid level disturbance which we wrote about yesterday made it's entrance into the region, touching off scattered clouds, which have since become somewhat widespread across the area and are moving from west to east. Over the next few hours, this disturbance will shift east, and the clouds should decrease in coverage through the evening. We also have a special visit from a guest in space to speak of, and all of the details are below.

Through Tonight (Wednesday Night): Long sleeved shirts may be an option once again this evening, depending on where you are. In the city, overnight low temperatures will dip down only into the low to mid 60's, much depending on the cloud cover. Inland, earlier clearing is expected and temperatures are likely to fall into the 50's once again. No precipitation to speak of, so overall a great evening.

Tomorrow (Thursday): Things begin to get a little tricky. Storm approach from the west, but weaken, which could still lead to some cloud cover. Temperatures should get into the low to mid 80's again, but then the trouble begins as a backdoor cold front begins to develop to our east. Winds shifting to the east by afternoon means seabreeze development--and clouds could again increase Thursday evening as a mid level disturbance drops down from the north in association with the developing back door front. So in essence, a bit of a tossup, but definitely not as pleasant as the first two or three days of the week.

International Space Station does a double take: The International Space Station will fly over the area twice tonight, somewhat of a rarity in the space weather community. The first fly by is scheduled for 7:42pm. Look to the north-west sky at that time to see the ISS which, although not as bright as usual, should be visible, despite the sun set. The second ISS pass will come at 9:18pm, which will be slightly brighter because of the new moon and (obviously) lack of sun at that hour. Look again to the north-west sky to see the space station flying overhead. Much of this is dependent on clouds, though--if they are still in the way, you won't see the space station. Let us know if you do see it, make sure to reply here or on Facebook or Twitter. Pictures would be great, too!

Article written August 31st, 2011 at 6:57pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the rest of the week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.