NAM Model's forecast lows tonight

An absolutely gorgeous Monday is wrapping up as we type this evening, and the skies remain relatively clear.  Today featured plenty of sun and warmer temperatures, approaching the upper 60's to 70 in many locations. Although the winds were east, they remained relatively light. Helping the situation, high clouds generally held off for the day and the early evening. Over the next several hours, though, you'll begin to notice their presence. They are moving towards our area in advance of a mid level disturbance in the atmosphere which is currently over the Central United States, but is shifting towards the Northeast US. As it does so, clouds will increase tonight into Tuesday morning, and a warm front near the area on Tuesday will enhance the chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. More importantly, clouds will be around for much of the day..keeping temperatures again in the middle 60's, and the air generally less comfortable. The lack of sun certainly won't help things. That being said, we'll all try to enjoy the next few hours of pleasant weather through tonight. Low temperatures tonight aren't forecast to be as cool (actually, nearly 10 degrees warmer in the city)..with lows in the 50's to around 60 in the metro.

THE FORECAST...

Through Tonight: Partly cloudy early, then increasing high clouds which will eventually lower and thicken. Low temperatures in the upper 50's to near 60 in the city, and mid 50's elsewhere. There is a chance of a spotty shower after midnight.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers possible throughout the day. High temperatures only in the mid 60's. With east winds around 10 miles per hour, it certainly won't be the most pleasant day.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...

The forecast takes a highly unsettled turn as a low pressure system over the Central US moves towards our area the middle of the week. Wednesday will be the warmest day, with temperatures rising into the middle 70's. However, clouds and the potential for showers will muddle up the forecast. This will continue through Friday--before the system looks to move out for the weekend.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 19th, 2011 at 7:17pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM showing high pressure in control today

We'll be straight with you : Monday is going to be a gorgeous day. The week may offer better days (it looks like Wednesday could be just as nice and probably warmer), but given the in and out clouds we've experienced through the weekend, Monday will be a welcomed pleasant day. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the middle to upper 60's under full sun, with the clouds staying out of the way throughout the day. It will be a cool start, though, as temperatures in the early morning will have fallen into the upper 40's inland and low 50's even in the New York City metro. By afternoon, as mentioned, temperatures will rise to more comfortable levels. As the evening approaches, you may begin to notice some high clouds streaming in from the west. These will lower and thicken with time, owing to a disturbance approaching from the west. In fact, much of Tuesday may be effectively marred by clouds and showers as a warm front approaches and passes the region. Don't worry, though, the showers on Tuesday with the warm front will only be setting up a warmer Wednesday.

Today (Monday): Mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60's. Winds will be east, a generally cool direction, but with the lack of clouds...the sun will make it feel warm enough during the afternoon. It will be cool to start in the morning, so if you're headed out early...bring along a sweatshirt or long sleeves.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy early, with some increasing high clouds possible throughout the night. Low temperatures in the lower to mid 50's in the city, and upper 40's to lower 50's inland. Winds generally east at 5 to 10 miles per hour.


A warm front moving through the area on Tuesday will be the big story for two reasons. First, it will bring showery weather and plentiful clouds on much of the day Tuesday. Second, after its passage on Wednesday, it will bring clearing skies and temperatures back into the middle to upper 70's on Wednesday. It will certainly feel warm on Wednesday when compared to the past week or so. By the end of the week, we await the approach of a cold front to bring in cooler air once again.


Article written by John Homenuk, September 19th, 2011 at 12:01am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.