GFS model showing precipitation associated with a cold front near our area this afternoon.

Although the pesky surface low pressure that plagued our area with rain during the middle of last week exited the area a long time ago, the upper level disturbances are still circling around a larger disturbance over the entire Northeast United States. The result has been the presence of clouds and isolated showers during the afternoon over the past several days. Sun was more plentiful on Sunday, but high clouds are beginning to stream into the area once again this morning. The culprit is an approaching atmospheric disturbance over Eastern Canada, which will swing through the Northeast on Monday. It will bring a moderately strong cold front with it, which will be more recognizable by the temperature drop than any heavy rain. Still, clouds will be increasing by morning on Monday, and although we could still see some sun, showers are possible by the afternoon and through the early evening. By early Tuesday, the front and disturbance will have passed the area--so we are expecting much more sunshine on Tuesday. High temperatures today are expected to reach into the middle 60's, and overnight lows Monday evening into Tuesday morning will be chilly...falling into the 40's once again.

Late week disturbance could prove troublesome: A more significant cold front will near the area by later this week, and forecast models are showing signs of some stronger low pressure development on the front. Such a development would most certainly bring a threat of moderate to heavy precipitation to the forecast area. With the intrusion of significant cold air expected behind the cold front, the potential would exist for some frozen precipitation (yes, we're serious) in the higher elevations behind the front. Such an event would be isolated and likely confined to the higher elevations, but it's definitely worth mentioning. Either way, behind the front, we're expecting some of the coldest air so far this fall. We'll keep you updated during the week as we get a better idea of what's going to transpire.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Monday): Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. High near 65. West winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 30%, after 12pm.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy early, with a chance of showers. Then clearing by dawn. Low near 50. West winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Article written by JH. Published October 24th, 2011 at 1:03am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM model showing high pressure dominating the area's weather this weekend.

For the second weekend in a row, fair conditions and plentiful sunshine are expected to control the weather throughout the area. This time though, the winds will be less of a factor and the weather will be completely pleasant (last weekend featured plenty of sun, but wind gusts over 40 miles per hour). A building high pressure is to thank, and it's moving in behind a significant low pressure system which hit our area with rain on Wednesday and winds on Thursday. The high pressure is building in from the west-southwest, but behind the storm system is bringing some very cool air. Daytime highs this weekend are forecast to reach only into the mid 60's, but the overnight low temperatures will likely make it feel more like late fall. Overnight, temperatures are forecast to drop into the 30's inland and 40's even in the city and metro areas. That being said, although it may feel a big crisp compared to the past several days, plenty of sunshine and a lack of unsettled weather or rain will make the weekend feel pleasant overall. A much needed break from the rain and storminess!

THE FORECAST...

Friday: Mostly sunny, high near 61. West winds 10 to 15 miles per hour, with an occasional gust near 20 miles per hour. Beautifully sunny, crisp autumn air throughout the day.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low in the upper 40's in the city, and upper 30's inland. West winds around 10 miles per hour. Definitely chilly if not cold in some spots.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 64. Northwest winds 5 miles per hour.  A bit warmer than Friday for sure, and the sun will be plentiful once again.

Article written by JH. Published October 21st, 2011 at 1:03am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming end of the week and weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing a mid- level dry slot over the area today (Thursday). Brown colors represent dry air, greener colors represent moist air.

The powerful and rather expansive storm system which provided our area with moderate amounts of rain and some gusty winds on Wednesday continues to churn over the Northeast United States. However, it's begun it's trek away from the area and will continue to move  northward into Southeastern and eventually East-Central Canada on Thursday. Although our area remains underneath a large disturbance in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, a dry slot (or area with significantly less moisture) will save our area from more rain on Thursday. Early in the morning, the potential for showers will exist as the system begins to shift north. With time, clearing skies are expected and by afternoon the sun will likely be shining. Temperatures will even be able to rebound, with the daytime heating of the sun, into the middle to upper 60's. With the aforementioned mid-level system still present, winds could be a bit gusty in the afternoon, but nothing overly dramatic (or similar to what we experienced this weekend). Temperatures are expected to drop towards 50 degrees on Thursday Night under partly cloudy skies.

Looking ahead to the weekend? We have nothing but smooth sailing to report. The only potential blemish would be the chance for some widely isolated showers on Saturday afternoon. Overall, it looks like we're in for a great weekend...with plenty of sun and high temperatures in the low 60's.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): A chance of showers early, then clearing. Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Southwest winds could get a bit gusty, but generally 10-15 miles per hour.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low near 50. Southwest winds still breezy at 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Article written by JH. Published October 20th, 2011 at 12:56am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming end of the week and weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing total accumulated rain amounts of near 2 inches in spots on Wednesday.

A significant disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere will strengthen further on Wednesday, as it moves from the Tennessee Valley towards the East Coast. This system will force the development of a strong area of low pressure at the surface, which will move northward from the Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley. Obviously this is well to the west of the area, and the low pressure is expected to stay there. However, this time, we're not out of the woods at all. In fact, we're expecting the threat of widespread showers and potentially heavy rains during the day today. The culprit will be a warm front which will extend east of the low pressure, coincidentally, directly over our area. This front will provide extra forcing/lift for precipitation to form and become heavy. In a moisture rich environment, and with a dynamic system in the atmosphere so nearby (including the presence of a developing low level jet), it isn't hard to fathom the potential for widespread showers as well as heavy rain for a period on Wednesday. The forecast models are (still) a bit inconsistent with this feature, but it appears at the very least likely that Wednesday will be marred by widespread showers and gloomy conditions. Where the heavy rain falls remains somewhat up in the air--but we will certainly be tracking it throughout the day today.

High temperatures in the middle 60's are forecast throughout the area, but south of the warm front (over Central NJ) temperatures may reach near 70 F as winds turn southerly and warm air is advected into the area. By overnight Wednesday into Thursday, a dry slot is expected to work into the area...ending the threat for showers and eventually allowing for clearing by Thursday morning.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Cloudy with a chance of showers early, then rain likely. The rain may be heavy at times. High near 65. East wind 10 miles per hour, gusting to 20 miles per hour at times. A dreary, gloomy day with the potential for heavy rain during the afternoon and early evening. Bring the rain gear!

Tonight: Cloudy with rain likely early, then a chance of showers. By dawn, clearing. Overnight low near 60. Southeast winds 15 miles per hour.

Article written by JH. Published October 19th, 2011 at 12:30am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing a strong low pressure over the Northeast on Wednesday.

The week began with a beautiful fall day on Monday, and will likely continue with much of the same today on Tuesday. High pressure which is built in to our south and east can be thanked for this (and the pleasant weather since this weekend), but it won't be able to hang on for long. In fact, it's already losing it's grip on the weather pattern over the area as tropical moisture gathers in the Gulf of Mexico and prepares to interact with a northern stream trough. However, today looks to be another spectacular fall day with mostly sunny skies throughout the morning and afternoon. Temperatures, under the full sun, will be able to rise into the middle 60's in a very similar fashion to Monday. Winds, this time around, will be less gusty and even less breezy than they have been the past three days. The pressure gradient which caused the winds is non-existent during the day today. Starting this afternoon and evening, high clouds will begin to build in and we may lose the sun during the afternoon. Clouds will lower by Tuesday evening and a chance for showers will turn into a good chance of rain by overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.


Today (Tuesday): Partly sunny. Increasing clouds late. High near 68. West winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. A beautiful fall day--but enjoy it, as the middle of the week will turn soggy.

Tonight: Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy. A chance of showers early, then rain likely overnight.  Low near 57. East winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

MID WEEK WEATHER TAKES AN OMINOUS TURN: An extremely large disturbance in the atmosphere develops over the Central US and moves eastward beginning early this week, forcing the development of a strong surface low. Thereafter, the surface low is forecast to move northward up and along the East Coast while interacting with plentiful tropical moisture. Forecast models are a bit inconsistent, so it's too early to tell exactly when or where the heaviest precipitation could fall, but the potential exists for a widespread moderate to heavy rain event on Wednesday throughout the area. We will keep you posted!

Article written by JH. Published October 18th, 2011 at 12:40am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing temps in the mid to upper 80's on Monday

Record high temperatures were set this weekend at several reporting stations throughout the area. Islip, New York recorded a temperature of 85, breaking the old record of 78 set in 1990. LaGuardia Airport also reached a record 85 degrees, breaking the old record of 84 from 1959. However, Kennedy Airport and Newark Airport were warmest, setting record temperatures of 87 and 88 degrees respectively. The old record at Kennedy was 82, from 1961 while the old record at Newark was 87, from 1990. The record warmth throughout the area is a direct result of a large mid and upper level atmospheric ridge, which has built in over the holiday weekend. The ridge is so anomalous, in fact, that many areas throughout the Northeast US (including our area, obviously) have reported temperatures near 20 degrees above normal averages. The high pressure in dominant control has allowed for precipitation to be a non-factor as well. It literally felt like a late-summer afternoon out there on Sunday (average highs in August are near 86-88 degrees). Monday should feature similar weather, with temperatures in the middle 80s and west winds as well as blue skies and no threat for precipitation. Enjoy it while you can, it's likely the last of this weather we'll be seeing for the next six months.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Monday): Sunny, with a high near 85. Another absolutely gorgeous and unseasonably warm day (temperatures near 20 degrees above normal averages). West-northwest wind around 5 mph.  Enjoy the day--short sleeves and shorts will do!

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 63. North wind between 5 and 10 miles per hour. A bit cool, but nothing compared to the past several nights of lows in the 50's. Very comfortable.

Article written by JH. Published October 10th, 2011 at 12:56am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing vast high pressure in control this weekend

A ridge of high pressure has build into the area, and the warming trend is on over the next few days. If you're just waking up and getting a check of the forecast you certainly won't feel the warmth. Such is protocol this time of year under high pressure with clear skies and light winds. The fact is, we're heading towards the colder season and we can't hide that. The overnight period exposes the cool temperatures (in fact, many locations dropped into the 40's and even upper 30's inland on Saturday morning). However, the ridge of high pressure will begin to usher in some of the warmer air of the past few weeks. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70's to near 80 in spots on Saturday, and low to middle 80's on Sunday, with some locations possibly topping out warmer than the mid 80's. Make no mistake, this is very warm for this time of year. Don't forget, it's the second week of October! A ridge of the intensity we're experiencing now, in the mid summer, would provide record breaking heat. We'll just have to settle for beautifully pleasant and warm fall weather instead!

THE FORECAST...

Today (Saturday): Mostly sunny, light west winds, high near 79. Couldn't ask for a better start to the weekend. No chance of rain.

Tonight: Clear, temperatures dropping fairly cool once again...but around 10 degrees warmer than Friday Night into Saturday. Low near 61. Again, light and variable winds.

Sunday: Sunny, warmer, light west-northwest winds. High near 85. Gorgeous. Short sleeves and (dare we say it) shorts could actually work during the warm hours of the afternoon.

Article written by JH. Published October 8th, 2011 at 2:22am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

GFS model showing a ridge of high pressure over the Eastern US

A ridge of high pressure has taken hold of the weather pattern over the area, and over the next few days we will experience continued fair conditions. In fact, temperatures could warm steadily over the next few days as well, with high temperatures approaching 80 degrees in the usual warm locations by the tail end of this weekend. However, before then, temperatures will remain slightly below seasonal averages for high temperatures today on Thursday. Despite the high pressure and fair weather, the atmosphere is still recovering from the big storm system which provided our area with unsettled weather for two weeks. Until this recovery occurs, temperatures will still only top out in the 60's to near 70. Today is forecast to be one of the cooler days, with high temperatures only reaching into the middle 60's. There will be a northwest breeze, but nothing near the windy conditions we experienced on Wednesday. By evening, during Game 5 of the ALDS in the Bronx (See the forecast below), clear skies and cool temperatures in the 50's are forecast.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Light north/northwest winds and low dew points will have the air feeling crisp and fresh. Enjoy it!

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low near 51. Another cool night with light northerly winds. A beautiful fall evening for sure.




Game 5 of the American League Division Series will be played in the Bronx on Thursday Night, as the Yankees look to advance to the Championship Series for the third consecutive year. Weather has been a significant inhibitor to games thus far during this series--but we have no problems with this forecast. Clear skies, temperatures near 60 around game time. Northwest winds, with temperatures falling into the 50's during the game. It's going to be a crystal clear, crisp October air in place for what promises to be a great night in the Bronx. Go Yankees. For updates on the forecast, check out our Twitter account. 


Article written by JH. Published October 6th, 2011 at 12:53am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing the large storm to our west. Image depicts energy in the middle atmosphere.

The unsettled weather which our area experienced on Wednesday will likely foreshadow the weather which is on the way for the second half of the week. We can thank an approaching mid and upper level storm system for that, which will bring the potential for heavier and steadier rain and Friday and early Saturday. Until then, however, we won't have any time to prepare for the unsettled weather, as showers and clouds will be around leading up to the approach of the main system. We are currently dealing with a weak disturbance, moving from south to north around the larger system to our west, which is providing our area with clouds and showers. This weak disturbance is one very isolated "spoke" of energy related to the much bigger storm system which is back to our west over the Central United States. So, as mentioned, although it may provide our area with unsettled conditions.. the real heavy rain may not come until Friday into Saturday, when the large mid and upper level storm nears the area. Highs today, despite the clouds and potential showers, will still be warmer than the past few days..reaching into the lower to middle 70's. High dew points, clouds, and south east winds will make it feel damp, though. Scattered showers are also a good bet throughout the day.


Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers. Highs in the middle 70's, with southeast winds keeping dew points and moisture high. Showers could be briefly moderate to heavy, but should be scattered. Won't be a washout, but won't be a nice day either. Bring along an umbrella for sure.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, 40% chance of showers. Same deal, essentially. Low temperatures in the 60's, with the air still feeling damp. Might be a little too warm for a heavy sweatshirt.


A large storm system over the Central United States is forecast to shift eastward towards the Ohio Valley and Northeast by this weekend. Smaller disturbances will affect our area through the week, before the heavy rain potential arrives Friday and early Saturday. Although it's too early to pinpoint where the heaviest rain will occur, it's certainly safe at this point to say that the end of the week into the first half of the weekend does not look pretty. The potential for heavy rain amounts definitely exists as tropical moisture gets involved on Friday as well. We will keep you updated over the next few days as the system draws closer, and the forecast models begin to converge on the area of heaviest rain as well as the timing of the precipitation.

NAM showing high pressure in control today

We'll be straight with you : Monday is going to be a gorgeous day. The week may offer better days (it looks like Wednesday could be just as nice and probably warmer), but given the in and out clouds we've experienced through the weekend, Monday will be a welcomed pleasant day. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the middle to upper 60's under full sun, with the clouds staying out of the way throughout the day. It will be a cool start, though, as temperatures in the early morning will have fallen into the upper 40's inland and low 50's even in the New York City metro. By afternoon, as mentioned, temperatures will rise to more comfortable levels. As the evening approaches, you may begin to notice some high clouds streaming in from the west. These will lower and thicken with time, owing to a disturbance approaching from the west. In fact, much of Tuesday may be effectively marred by clouds and showers as a warm front approaches and passes the region. Don't worry, though, the showers on Tuesday with the warm front will only be setting up a warmer Wednesday.

Today (Monday): Mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60's. Winds will be east, a generally cool direction, but with the lack of clouds...the sun will make it feel warm enough during the afternoon. It will be cool to start in the morning, so if you're headed out early...bring along a sweatshirt or long sleeves.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy early, with some increasing high clouds possible throughout the night. Low temperatures in the lower to mid 50's in the city, and upper 40's to lower 50's inland. Winds generally east at 5 to 10 miles per hour.


A warm front moving through the area on Tuesday will be the big story for two reasons. First, it will bring showery weather and plentiful clouds on much of the day Tuesday. Second, after its passage on Wednesday, it will bring clearing skies and temperatures back into the middle to upper 70's on Wednesday. It will certainly feel warm on Wednesday when compared to the past week or so. By the end of the week, we await the approach of a cold front to bring in cooler air once again.


Article written by John Homenuk, September 19th, 2011 at 12:01am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model's forecast low temperatures tonight

In a weekend characterized by fall-like weather throughout the area, the trend will continue as we close it  out. This evening is expected to be another pleasant one, with partly cloudy skies accompanied by cool and crisp conditions. A storm system off to our east continues to shift away from the area, and it will bring the clouds (which interfered with the area's weather on both Friday and Saturday) with it. Through tonight, high pressure is expected to build back in and take control of the area's weather once again. This high pressure is forecast to dominate the forecast through Monday and the first half of Tuesday. Tonight's low temperatures look to be heading to very cool numbers once again, with the city and metro area dropping into the 50's and the interior/suburban areas and higher elevations falling into the 40's. We hope you had a great weekend, and hope you are able to enjoy the pleasant weather over the next several hours as we try and hold on to the last few hours of Sunday.

Through Tonight: Mostly sunny through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Temperatures in the 60's with light northeast winds. Then, mostly clear through the evening with temperatures dropping into the low 50's in the city. Cooler inland, with temperatures in the mid 40's.

Monday: Mostly sunny and a bit warmer than the past few days--overall a beautiful day. High temperatures will approach the upper 60's to near 70. Winds will be relatively light.


The work week looks to follow the trend of the past several days, with some fair days and some unsettled days. High pressure will be in control on Monday and the first half of Tuesday, bringing fair weather. In fact, it could return towards normal levels on both of those days with high temperatures climbing into the lower 70's and mid 70's respectively. By Tuesday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of a warm front. The forecast may remain unsettled, with a chance of showers, through the middle of the week.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 18th, 2011 at 4:08pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend and next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Latest Northeast US Temperatures (click to enlarge)

The cool weather which we've been advertising for days has settled in to the area this morning, and made itself established first on Friday. Temperatures only reached into the low to mid 60's in most areas (with the exception of the urban areas, which typically run a few degrees warmer regardless of the airmass), and winds were out of the northwest and a bit blustery in the morning. Dew points were also dramatically lower, adding to the crisp and clear air. Air quality was great on Friday, for the first time in several weeks, as a high pressure remained in control. However, the forecast is slowly changing and transitioning (as it always is) and the first signs were easily visible late Friday afternoon as high clouds moved in and blocked the sunlight. These clouds were moving towards our area in response to a disturbance in the middle levels of the atmosphere. This disturbance will remain over the region today, causing skies to range from partly to mostly cloudy throughout the day. The high clouds over the area may re-appear during the day today, and although the sun won't be totally muted as it is during overcast skies, it will be noticeably less sunny. Temperatures, as a result, will be held into the mid 60's once again.

WHY WAS IT A BIT WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT?


It's interesting to note, in a post-mortem sort of way, how the high clouds prevented temperatures from falling rapidly Friday night into the early hours of this morning. The answer lies in the feature we discussed in the Friday afternoon blog post, "radiating". When the skies are clear under a cool airmass (or any airmass, really), the atmosphere can "radiate" overnight. Essentially, in the most simplistic of terms, the heat from the day at the surface (radiation) can escape into the atmosphere under clear skies and light winds. The calm winds are important, too, as they prevent the atmosphere from mixing..but we'll save the mixing of temperatures conversation for another day. Clouds, however, make the story more complicated. The clouds can hold the radiation near the surface, keeping the temperature warmer. This is way in some cases, on overcast nights, the temperature only drops a few degrees with the loss of the sunlight. On clear nights, it can drop several degrees.  


As we saw Friday night into the early hours of this morning, the clouds over the area prevented the favorable radiating that would have allowed another big drop in temperatures. Instead, areas farther north over New England (sans the clouds) dropped to unseasonably cool temperatures once again, and although our area was still below normal, temperatures were not as cold as they were Thursday Night.


THE FORECAST...


Today (Saturday): Partly to mostly cloudy, high temperatures near 67. Winds turning from northwest to east at 5 to 10 miles per hour. We'd definitely recommend jeans, but the long sleeves is a bit of a toss up given the temperatures nearing 70 in the afternoon. It really depends on your preference! Overall, not too bad of a Saturday. 


Tonight (Saturday Night): Partly cloudy, and cool once again, with a low in the low 50's. Cooler inland and north of the city (mid to upper 40's). Sounds like sweatshirt weather to us! 


A look ahead: Fair weather looks to be in control through Tuesday, when a warm front approaches the area..bringing with it a chance of scattered showers through at least Wednesday. 


Article written by John Homenuk, September 17th, 2011 at 12:49am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Observed temperatures at 1:00pm 9/16/11

Autumn like air has made itself right at home in the area today. Temperatures last night dove into the lower 40's throughout much of the interior, and dropped to near 50 in the metro area. Northwest winds and low dew points have the air feeling crisp and cool, even this morning and afternoon. The morning observations had the warmest stations around 52 degrees. Some warming has occurred since then, and at the top of the afternoon temperatures throughout most of the area were in the upper 50's to low 60's. Skies, which were perfectly clear, are beginning to show signs of some airmass change with high clouds moving in. They are moving our way in advance of a mid level disturbance, currently located over the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. This system is poised to move in our direction tonight into Saturday, and the high clouds could become more widespread. This has implications for tonight's forecast.

Why, you ask? The answer lies in the term "radiating". When the skies are clear under a cool airmass (or any airmass, really), the atmosphere can "radiate" overnight. Essentially, in the most simplistic of terms, the heat from the day at the surface (radiation) can escape into the atmosphere under clear skies and light winds. The calm winds are important, too, as they prevent the atmosphere from mixing..but we'll save the mixing of temperatures conversation for another day. Clouds, however, make the story more complicated. The clouds can hold the radiation near the surface, keeping the temperature warmer. This is way in some cases, on overcast nights, the temperature only drops a few degrees with the loss of the sunlight. On clear nights, it can drop several degrees. Forecast models have high and mid level clouds in the area tonight into Sunday, making for a complicated forecast. It appears that the clouds will be thicker over Central New Jersey and to the south--resulting in a gradient of low temperatures from south to north. Areas north of the city (Northern NJ, Southeast NY, CT) could fall into the low to mid 40's once again, while the city and points south stay in the low to mid 50's overnight.



Through Tonight: Sunny this afternoon, some high clouds moving in as the evening approaches. Temperatures in the mid 60's, northwest winds a bit gusty at first..but becoming less noticeable by evening. After sunset, clouds may increase across southern zones. Temperatures could drop into the low to mid 40's over most areas north of the city, should be in the low 50's in and around the city, and mid 50's south of the city through the overnight.

Saturday: Mid and high clouds will be an issue. We could see the sun shine through them, but we think partly to mostly cloudy is the best sky forecast. High temperatures again top out in the mid 60's. Winds will be light, and we aren't expecting much other than a widely isolated shower.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 16th, 2011 at 1:12pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Temperature change over the last 24 hours (valid early Friday morning)

The coolest air of the past several months arrived in the forecast area Thursday afternoon, and is still in place today. A cold front swept through the area Thursday Night, effectively ushering in a Canadian airmass with gusty northwest winds. The rapidly dropping dew points are adding to the shocking air--making it feel very crisp. The temperatures dropped more than 20 degrees in some locations (see the map to the right) after the cold front passed last night, and some spots were forecast to dip down into the upper 30's for lows (mostly the interior and higher elevations). No matter how you slice it, it's going to feel downright chilly compared to the past several days (and weeks) of relatively warm summer weather this morning. High temperatures today are forecast to reach into the lower to mid 60's at the very most--a drastic change. As mentioned, the dew points will be low as well. Winds could be gusty in the afternoon, out of the northwest, near 20 miles per hour at times. Overall, it's going to feel like a mid-autumn day throughout, so we hope you're ready. There will be plenty more days like today to come over the next few months. 


THE FORECAST...


Today (Friday): Beautifully sunny, with some stray fair weather clouds. High temperatures in the low to mid 60's, low dew points, and beautifully crisp air. Northwest winds may be gusty for a bit during the afternoon---near 20 miles per hour at times. We'd recommend long sleeves and jeans, but the sun can still feel warm this time of year. You'll have to gauge it yourself! A wonderful fall day throughout the area (even though it's still summer!).


Friday Night: Partly cloudy, and still feeling chilly with northwest winds and a cool airmass still in place. Winds will be light, skies will be clearing. May be a degree or two warmer than last night, but overall no major change. 


A BRAND NEW FEATURE...

We invite you to check out our newest feature, interactive forecast (beta). Here's the low down: eventually, we want this product to replace our text forecast page. It adds more functionality, and you can get more accurate forecasts for your location (whether you live in NW NJ or on Long Island), instead of a forecast for just New York City. However, it's still in testing. We're still working ironing out some details.

So go check it out, and let us know what you think. This forecast is not computerized--it is updated by our forecasters at least twice daily. Send us an email, or give us a shout out on Facebook or Twitter to let us know what you think. We're looking forward to hearing from you!


Article written by John Homenuk, September 16th, 2011 at 12:36am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Temperatures in NJ at 6pm (9/15/11)

The coolest air of the past several months has arrived in the forecast area this afternoon and early evening. A cold front swept through the area earlier today, and is ushering in the airmass with gusty northwest winds. The rapidly dropping dew points are adding to the shocking air--making it feel very crisp. Through tonight, it appears likely that the winds will die down at least a bit, and the temperatures will continue to drop as the cold airmass makes it's way here. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 40's throughout much of the interior, but may stay closer to 50 in the immediate New York City Metro area. No matter how you slice it, it's going to feel downright chilly compared to the past several days (and weeks) of relatively warm summer weather. The temperature drop could be more than 30 degrees by this evening, and the higher elevations have a chance of dropping into the upper 30's! I think it's safe to say, at this point, that autumn isn't far away. It's certainly doing it's best to let us know.

THE FORECAST... 

Through Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy early, with a stray shower or two. Then, becoming mostly clear and much colder. Temperatures dropping into the upper 30's to mid 40's inland, and upper 40's to near 50 in the city. Northwest winds 5-10 miles per hour gusting to 20 mph early. I think it's safe to say, you're going to want a sweatshirt and long pants..maybe a jacket, too.

Friday: Beautifully sunny, with some stray fair weather clouds. High temperatures in the low to mid 60's, low dew points, and beautifully crisp air. A wonderful fall day throughout the area (even though it's still summer!).

A BRAND NEW FEATURE...

We invite you to check out our newest feature, interactive forecast (beta). Here's the low down: eventually, we want this product to replace our text forecast page. It adds more functionality, and you can get more accurate forecasts for your location (whether you live in NW NJ or on Long Island), instead of a forecast for just New York City. However, it's still in testing. We're still working ironing out some details.

So go check it out, and let us know what you think. This forecast is not computerized--it is updated by our forecasters at least twice daily. Send us an email, or give us a shout out on Facebook or Twitter to let us know what you think. We're looking forward to hearing from you!

Article written by John Homenuk, September 15th, 2011 at 6:44pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

For the second straight year, it's snowing in the Tri-State area in October. This year, it's just 15 or so days earlier. Light to moderate snow has been reported throughout the interior and northwest areas of the New York City Tri-State area, even as far southwest as Northeast New Jersey and Southwest Connecticut. As it turns out, forecast models were slightly too warm in the lower levels of the atmosphere at the start of precipitation. This can often occur when the airmass preceding a system is unseasonably cold, and the models may be slightly "climo-skewed". It can even happen in January, but that's more of a function of models not handling the strength of a stronger high pressure. The ageostrophic flow prior to the precipitation onset was also a contributor, bringing lower dew points and colder, more winter like air into the region.  Either way, the band of light precipitation continues to move northeast into Southern New England. The National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories for portions of our area through tonight, so please stay abreast of the situation when traveling. Snow is not likely in the city itself or on Long Island. We'll be back later with more photos and snow reports and a full post regarding the second noreaster forecast to impact the area later this weekend.











Snow falling in Southwest Connecticut
Image Courtesy Easternuswx

It's safe, at this point, to say that we've seen the last of the sun for the next few days. An unseasonably deep and anomalous weather pattern will begin to set up later this week across the Eastern United States, impacting our area from Thursday through the end of the weekend, and quite possibly into Monday. All of the ingredients typically needed for a pattern mentioned above are there. The featured image to the left shows the pattern as depicted on the 36 hour 12z Operational GFS forecast at H5. A few select features are noted, beginning with the presence of a large west coast +PNA ridge (A).  This ridge is often responsible for resultant toughing across the Central and Eastern United States. Though the ridge is progressive/transient, heights are forecast to rise well into Western/Central Canada, aiding in the amplification of the trough downstream. A very progressive/weak blocking feature is in place across Eastern Canada/Greenland (B). A feature more typical to an anomalous east coast trough would be a more sustained block, but the presence of the +PNA ridge will tend to "substitute" for this missing block. The result (C) is a mean trough over the Eastern US. The pattern is still "dirty", meaning there are multiple shortwaves embedded within the trough and the forecast guidance is still struggling with the energy, specifically with determining which storm will be the main player and when the impact will occur. This creates havoc on the guidance including difficulties with strength and timing of each system.

The lead system is forecast to emerge out of the base of the trough as seen on the 36 hour forecast, with a surface low pressure traversing through the Middle Atlantic states and eventually off the Mid Atlantic coast. Unseasonably cold temperatures are in place and will be generally held in place as a surface high pressure builds southeastward into Quebec. This really is a mid-winter pattern, and a snow lover's dream. By 00z Friday (Thursday Night) it's reasonable to assume a ~1000mb low pressure system will be organizing off the Mid Atlantic coast and heading northeastward. Forecast soundings are interesting in a couple of ways with this system. First, the dynamics actually get interesting during the height of the system early Friday with modestly favorable omega values/uvv's. Additionally, the soundings indicate a good amount of cold air at the surface to start, indicating northwest interior/mountainous areas/higher elevations may actually begin the system with a short period of sleet or possibly snowflakes. These soundings are somewhat suspect, but the dynamics and cold air to begin with cannot be ignored. The image to the left shows the sounding for KSWF from the 12z NAM valid at 33 hours. It's easy to see how borderline the sounding is, with low level air barely -0.2 C. Still, if taken verbatim (not always the smartest idea) the 12z NAM would indicate a good 4-5 hour period of snowfall at the aforementioned station.

Digesting all of this may be somewhat difficult. The fact is that there is an extended period of precipitation forecast to impact the area (including the metro) over the next few days. It's not likely that snow will fall within the NYC Metro area, but rain amounts could total over 2-3 inches by the time the prolonged period of precipitation ends. Further north and west, especially in mountainous areas and higher elevations, a period of snow and or sleet to begin the storm can not be ruled out. The rain that falls elsewhere will be a raw, cold rain. Not very conducive to baseball, I may add. Some of the forecast models indicate a respite in precipitation Friday evening between systems, so they may possible be able to get in a cold, damp ALCS Game 1.

After this, the trough over the eastern coast becomes even more anomalous and cuts off from the upper level flow. Another coastal low is forecast to form along a boundary just a few hundred miles off of the Mid Atlantic coast. With a second area of vorticity moving northeast up the trough axis (aligned southwest to northeast along the eastern seaboard) this system, again, may be dynamic with areas of enhanced precipitation possible from Eastern Pennsylvania to NW New Jersey and possibly the Metro region eventually moving northeast towards New England. By this time, additional cold air will be filtering southeast from the broad upper level trough, and as such it appears possible that flakes may fall in the mountains of NE PA at this time frame. Really a wild pattern for this time of year: but for us, it adds up to a wet forecast over the weekend with possibly a brief period of white or grey well north and west. We'll have a post on storm number two later tonight with more details and buzzings about the upcoming cold and wet weekend. Take it easy.

Oh, and as an aside: Yes, the blog is fully up and running. Functional, comments and criticisms allowed. We hope you continue reading and leaving us your thoughts and comments on each post. We will continue bringing you our thoughts and information as often as possible, more than likely once a day or once every few days.  

John