NAM model showing the large storm to our west. Image depicts energy in the middle atmosphere.

The unsettled weather which our area experienced on Wednesday will likely foreshadow the weather which is on the way for the second half of the week. We can thank an approaching mid and upper level storm system for that, which will bring the potential for heavier and steadier rain and Friday and early Saturday. Until then, however, we won't have any time to prepare for the unsettled weather, as showers and clouds will be around leading up to the approach of the main system. We are currently dealing with a weak disturbance, moving from south to north around the larger system to our west, which is providing our area with clouds and showers. This weak disturbance is one very isolated "spoke" of energy related to the much bigger storm system which is back to our west over the Central United States. So, as mentioned, although it may provide our area with unsettled conditions.. the real heavy rain may not come until Friday into Saturday, when the large mid and upper level storm nears the area. Highs today, despite the clouds and potential showers, will still be warmer than the past few days..reaching into the lower to middle 70's. High dew points, clouds, and south east winds will make it feel damp, though. Scattered showers are also a good bet throughout the day.


Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers. Highs in the middle 70's, with southeast winds keeping dew points and moisture high. Showers could be briefly moderate to heavy, but should be scattered. Won't be a washout, but won't be a nice day either. Bring along an umbrella for sure.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, 40% chance of showers. Same deal, essentially. Low temperatures in the 60's, with the air still feeling damp. Might be a little too warm for a heavy sweatshirt.


A large storm system over the Central United States is forecast to shift eastward towards the Ohio Valley and Northeast by this weekend. Smaller disturbances will affect our area through the week, before the heavy rain potential arrives Friday and early Saturday. Although it's too early to pinpoint where the heaviest rain will occur, it's certainly safe at this point to say that the end of the week into the first half of the weekend does not look pretty. The potential for heavy rain amounts definitely exists as tropical moisture gets involved on Friday as well. We will keep you updated over the next few days as the system draws closer, and the forecast models begin to converge on the area of heaviest rain as well as the timing of the precipitation.

NAM model showing low pressure affecting our area Friday

The partly cloudy skies over the region Tuesday Night were a welcomed sight for those who couldn't wait to escape the rain and cloudy conditions that we endured most of the day on Tuesday. However, they won't last long...and unfortunately most of Wednesday may feature clouds as well. A disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere will approach from south to north (moving from the Mid-Atlantic states towards our area), bringing clouds and the potential for scattered showers with it. This weak disturbance is one very isolated "spoke" of energy related to a much bigger storm system which is back to our west over the Central United States. So although it may provide our area with unsettled conditions on Wednesday, the real heavy rain may not come until Friday into Saturday, when the large mid and upper level storm nears the area. Highs tomorrow, despite the clouds and potential showers, will be much warmer than the past few days...reaching into the middle 70's. You can thank the warm front which passed on Tuesday (bringing us showers and clouds) for the warmer weather. Unfortunately, we won't have the luxury of the enjoying the warmth in the sun.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Partly cloudy early, then becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of scattered showers. Warmer, with highs near 77. Southeast winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 30%. We'd recommend short sleeves despite the increasing clouds...temperatures in the mid 70's will feel warm compared to the last week or so!

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60's. Southeast winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Definitely bring a sweatshirt along.

SHOWERS & CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...

A large storm system over the Central United States is forecast to shift eastward towards the Ohio Valley and Northeast by this weekend. Smaller disturbances will affect our area through the week, before the heavy rain potential arrives Friday and early Saturday. Although it's too early to pinpoint where the heaviest rain will occur, it's certainly safe at this point to say that the end of the week into the first half of the weekend does not look pretty. The potential for heavy rain amounts definitely exists as tropical moisture gets involved on Friday as well. We will keep you updated over the next few days as the system draws closer, and the forecast models begin to converge on the area of heaviest rain as well as the timing of the precipitation.

Article written by John Homenuk. Published September 21st, 2011 at 12:50am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM forecast cloud cover at 2pm Tuesday

The pleasant and sunny weather which marked Monday as a beautiful day is on the way out, and Tuesday is likely to provide more clouds than sun. The potential for showers will also exist, especially in the morning. Although moderate to heavy rain is not expected, nor are any prolonged periods of steady rain, the weather generally will have taken a downhill turn since the first day of the week. The clouds and showers are entering our area in response to a warm frontal boundary, which is moving in our direction from the Ohio Valley. Disturbances in the mid levels of the atmosphere, although small, near the front will be suffice to cause the clouds and showers. There is the potential for sun to break out by the afternoon hours as the warm front passes  the area, with winds turning to the southwest by around 2pm. We'll generally call it a mostly cloudy forecast, though,  with scattered showers likely in the morning and potentially the first half of the afternoon...with high temperatures only area forecast to get into the middle 60's.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Tuesday): Mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers. Some clearing is possible by the late afternoon and early evening. High temperatures in the middle 60's throughout most of the area, slightly cooler inland. East winds turning southwest later in the day.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with low temperatures near 60 in the metro, and in the upper 50's in the interior. South winds should be light to around 5 miles per hour. A slight chance of a scattered shower.

SUMMER 2011 RECAP & MORE...

You can view our Summer 2011 | By the numbers recap, and also take a look at our post detailing the near 10 year low in sea ice extent this past week. Both posts are featured links at the top of the blog. We appreciate your comments and discussion, and look forward to interacting with you.

Article written by John Homenuk. Published September 20th, 2011 at 12:20am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM Model's forecast lows tonight

An absolutely gorgeous Monday is wrapping up as we type this evening, and the skies remain relatively clear.  Today featured plenty of sun and warmer temperatures, approaching the upper 60's to 70 in many locations. Although the winds were east, they remained relatively light. Helping the situation, high clouds generally held off for the day and the early evening. Over the next several hours, though, you'll begin to notice their presence. They are moving towards our area in advance of a mid level disturbance in the atmosphere which is currently over the Central United States, but is shifting towards the Northeast US. As it does so, clouds will increase tonight into Tuesday morning, and a warm front near the area on Tuesday will enhance the chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms. More importantly, clouds will be around for much of the day..keeping temperatures again in the middle 60's, and the air generally less comfortable. The lack of sun certainly won't help things. That being said, we'll all try to enjoy the next few hours of pleasant weather through tonight. Low temperatures tonight aren't forecast to be as cool (actually, nearly 10 degrees warmer in the city)..with lows in the 50's to around 60 in the metro.

THE FORECAST...

Through Tonight: Partly cloudy early, then increasing high clouds which will eventually lower and thicken. Low temperatures in the upper 50's to near 60 in the city, and mid 50's elsewhere. There is a chance of a spotty shower after midnight.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with showers possible throughout the day. High temperatures only in the mid 60's. With east winds around 10 miles per hour, it certainly won't be the most pleasant day.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...

The forecast takes a highly unsettled turn as a low pressure system over the Central US moves towards our area the middle of the week. Wednesday will be the warmest day, with temperatures rising into the middle 70's. However, clouds and the potential for showers will muddle up the forecast. This will continue through Friday--before the system looks to move out for the weekend.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 19th, 2011 at 7:17pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM showing high pressure in control today

We'll be straight with you : Monday is going to be a gorgeous day. The week may offer better days (it looks like Wednesday could be just as nice and probably warmer), but given the in and out clouds we've experienced through the weekend, Monday will be a welcomed pleasant day. Temperatures are forecast to rise into the middle to upper 60's under full sun, with the clouds staying out of the way throughout the day. It will be a cool start, though, as temperatures in the early morning will have fallen into the upper 40's inland and low 50's even in the New York City metro. By afternoon, as mentioned, temperatures will rise to more comfortable levels. As the evening approaches, you may begin to notice some high clouds streaming in from the west. These will lower and thicken with time, owing to a disturbance approaching from the west. In fact, much of Tuesday may be effectively marred by clouds and showers as a warm front approaches and passes the region. Don't worry, though, the showers on Tuesday with the warm front will only be setting up a warmer Wednesday.

Today (Monday): Mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 60's. Winds will be east, a generally cool direction, but with the lack of clouds...the sun will make it feel warm enough during the afternoon. It will be cool to start in the morning, so if you're headed out early...bring along a sweatshirt or long sleeves.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy early, with some increasing high clouds possible throughout the night. Low temperatures in the lower to mid 50's in the city, and upper 40's to lower 50's inland. Winds generally east at 5 to 10 miles per hour.


A warm front moving through the area on Tuesday will be the big story for two reasons. First, it will bring showery weather and plentiful clouds on much of the day Tuesday. Second, after its passage on Wednesday, it will bring clearing skies and temperatures back into the middle to upper 70's on Wednesday. It will certainly feel warm on Wednesday when compared to the past week or so. By the end of the week, we await the approach of a cold front to bring in cooler air once again.


Article written by John Homenuk, September 19th, 2011 at 12:01am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model showing low pressure to our east today.

Although our area has been spared the precipitation, a storm system developing off to our south and east over the open Atlantic Ocean provided the presence of clouds on Saturday, and may do so again on Sunday. It's interesting, really, when you consider how dominant the cool and crisp airmass felt on Saturday. But alas, this is a time of year when the airmasses are changing rapidly. We call them "transition seasons" in the meteorological community, where you can't really settle into a dominant pattern. You'll notice in summer, it can be hot and dry for several days. In winter, it can be cold and dry for several days. But many times in Autumn and Spring, the fair weather at extended periods is hard to come by. Still, we can't complain. The forecast for Sunday looks dry, although clouds will get in the way again during the afternoon. Temperatures in the middle 60's seem like a good bet during the afternoon as well, with some more sun than we saw on Saturday. The winds will be northeast, relatively cool throughout the day. By evening, the storm offshore will be well east of the area...and high pressure will begin to build back in again.


Today (Sunday): Again the possibility of clouds developing by afternoon, but there should be a few more hours of sun than on Saturday. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 60's during the afternoon. Winds again northeast at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Looks like a good day to bring along a light sweatshirt.

Tonight (Sunday Night): Partly cloudy, as the clouds become less widespread. Temperatures dropping into the low 50's once again in the city, and mid 40's in the interior. Sweatshirts a good idea once again.


The work week looks to follow the trend of the past several days, with some fair days and some unsettled days. High pressure will be in control on Monday and the first half of Tuesday, bringing fair weather. In fact, it could return towards normal levels on both of those days with high temperatures climbing into the lower 70's and mid 70's respectively. By Tuesday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of a warm front. The forecast may remain unsettled, with a chance of showers, through the middle of the week.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 18th, 2011 at 12:24am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend and next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Visible satellite imagery at 630pm 9/17/11

Today was defined mostly by the presence of mid level clouds, which got in the way by the late morning after a few hours of bright sun to start the day.  These clouds developed in response to a mid level disturbance, which moved from west to east from the Ohio Valley, towards the Mid Atlantic, and then offshore today. Although our area was spared the precipitation, the clouds definitely got in the way of what would have otherwise been a pleasant and sunny day. Instead of sun, mostly cloudy skies prevailed and some showers scraped the New Jersey shore. They may scrape long island as well through the evening. Generally though, over the next several hours, these clouds are expected to thin and move east and offshore. This should set the stage for a relatively calm and pleasant evening, with partly cloudy skies and cooling temperatures. The lack of clouds and light winds should allow for good radiating, and temperatures will drop again into the lower 50's in the metro area. In the interior, temperatures should again fall into the mid to upper 40's.

THE FORECAST...

Through Tonight: Mostly cloudy early, then becoming partly cloudy overnight. A chance of showers on the NJ shore and Long Island early, then becoming partly cloudy there as well. Low temperatures dropping into the lower 50's in the metro area, and the mid to upper 40's. Winds light and out of the northeast. We'd recommend long sleeves and probably a sweatshirt.

Sunday: Again the possibility of clouds developing by afternoon, but there should be a few more hours of sun than on Saturday. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 60's during the afternoon. Winds again northeast at 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 17th, 2011 at 6:31pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend and next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Latest Northeast US Temperatures (click to enlarge)

The cool weather which we've been advertising for days has settled in to the area this morning, and made itself established first on Friday. Temperatures only reached into the low to mid 60's in most areas (with the exception of the urban areas, which typically run a few degrees warmer regardless of the airmass), and winds were out of the northwest and a bit blustery in the morning. Dew points were also dramatically lower, adding to the crisp and clear air. Air quality was great on Friday, for the first time in several weeks, as a high pressure remained in control. However, the forecast is slowly changing and transitioning (as it always is) and the first signs were easily visible late Friday afternoon as high clouds moved in and blocked the sunlight. These clouds were moving towards our area in response to a disturbance in the middle levels of the atmosphere. This disturbance will remain over the region today, causing skies to range from partly to mostly cloudy throughout the day. The high clouds over the area may re-appear during the day today, and although the sun won't be totally muted as it is during overcast skies, it will be noticeably less sunny. Temperatures, as a result, will be held into the mid 60's once again.

WHY WAS IT A BIT WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT?


It's interesting to note, in a post-mortem sort of way, how the high clouds prevented temperatures from falling rapidly Friday night into the early hours of this morning. The answer lies in the feature we discussed in the Friday afternoon blog post, "radiating". When the skies are clear under a cool airmass (or any airmass, really), the atmosphere can "radiate" overnight. Essentially, in the most simplistic of terms, the heat from the day at the surface (radiation) can escape into the atmosphere under clear skies and light winds. The calm winds are important, too, as they prevent the atmosphere from mixing..but we'll save the mixing of temperatures conversation for another day. Clouds, however, make the story more complicated. The clouds can hold the radiation near the surface, keeping the temperature warmer. This is way in some cases, on overcast nights, the temperature only drops a few degrees with the loss of the sunlight. On clear nights, it can drop several degrees.  


As we saw Friday night into the early hours of this morning, the clouds over the area prevented the favorable radiating that would have allowed another big drop in temperatures. Instead, areas farther north over New England (sans the clouds) dropped to unseasonably cool temperatures once again, and although our area was still below normal, temperatures were not as cold as they were Thursday Night.


THE FORECAST...


Today (Saturday): Partly to mostly cloudy, high temperatures near 67. Winds turning from northwest to east at 5 to 10 miles per hour. We'd definitely recommend jeans, but the long sleeves is a bit of a toss up given the temperatures nearing 70 in the afternoon. It really depends on your preference! Overall, not too bad of a Saturday. 


Tonight (Saturday Night): Partly cloudy, and cool once again, with a low in the low 50's. Cooler inland and north of the city (mid to upper 40's). Sounds like sweatshirt weather to us! 


A look ahead: Fair weather looks to be in control through Tuesday, when a warm front approaches the area..bringing with it a chance of scattered showers through at least Wednesday. 


Article written by John Homenuk, September 17th, 2011 at 12:49am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Latest IR satellite (auto updates)

We hope you have enjoyed the weather thus far this weekend, as it's definitely served as a much needed break from rainy and dreary conditions which stuck around most of the work week. Unfortunately, the second half of the weekend doesn't look overly promising. Although it won't be a washout, a back door cold front (a cold front which moves from east to west as opposed to west to east) will enter the area tonight into Sunday morning, and will bring in cooler air off the ocean. In addition, increased humidity and cloudiness will enter the forecast, making for less than ideal conditions on Sunday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist throughout the area beginning tonight and continuing through all of Sunday, although Sunday's precipitation should be more showery. The atmosphere won't be unstable enough to support many thunderstorms. It won't be continuous or non-stop, but it definitely will be noticeably different than Friday and the first half of today.


Tonight (Saturday Night): Mostly cloudy with an increased chance of showers throughout the evening. Temperatures will drop into the middle 60's. East winds off the ocean will make the air feel a bit more raw. Definitely bring a sweatshirt along if you're going to be near the ocean.

Tomorrow (Sunday): Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers throughout the day. High temperatures only in the middle 70's. The showers won't be continuous, but will be on and off/scattered throughout the day. You may want to be cautious and bring rain gear along.

An early look ahead to the week: Some clearing is forecast by early next week, but the main story that we're looking ahead to is the potential for our first "fall like" cold front, which could enter the area by the middle to later part of the week. If it does come to fruition, the dew points would lower greatly and the air would feel crisp and fresh for the first time in a while. We'll see!

Article written by John Homenuk, September 10th, 2011 at 7:04pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.