NAM model showing the low pressure out of the picture, and high pressure building in this week.

Stagnant, slow moving, stalled, blocked, persistent. Those are all words which we have used to describe the upper level low pressure system which sat near or over our area for a good part of the past two or more weeks. Finally, we have only one word to use starting Wednesday: Gone. The storm system is on it's way east of New England, on the move towards a weakness in the pattern which will (finally) allow it to escape to the Atlantic. A ridge and high pressure will then build into the area starting today and continuing through Friday, and not only will the weather be fair, but temperatures will rise towards average and above average as we approach the weekend. In fact, high temperatures could again be approaching 80 degrees by the tail end of the weekend. Still, lets not get too far ahead of ourselves just yet. Today looks to be a gorgeous day, with high temperatures near 70 and mostly sunny skies. A northwesterly breeze and low dew points will have the air feeling brisk, clean, and new, a big change from the past few weeks. We know everybody will be enjoying it! 

Radar image from wunderground shows movement & intensity of precipitation over the past hour.

Although temperatures and humidity will make it feel warm (in a continuing trend over the past several days), Wednesday should be characterized by the presence of increased chances of showers. That being said, what once looked like the potential for heavy rain throughout portions of the day has turned into isolated showers, a certain improvement in the forecast. The key, is that forecast models are now weaker with a developing mid level disturbance passing the area this afternoon. The main large storm remains back to our west--and the disturbance today was forecast to be strong enough to touch of heavy rain. However, forecast models have since backed off, and it looks like the day should be generally salvaged. High temperatures in the mid 70's look like a sure bet--a few degrees cooler than the first two days of the week. Still, the presence of showers will likely have Wednesday remembered as a more damp and dreary day than the last two, even with the potential for dry conditions during the afternoon.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers. High temperatures in the middle 70's over Southern New Jersey and the NYC Metro, and lower 70's elsewhere. East winds and dew points in the 60's will lead to a much more damp day.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers. Low temperatures in the middle 60's. Continued east winds off the water--damp conditions continue.

LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL...

Unsettled weather has, generally (sans the past two days), plagued our area over the past week or more. The threat of unsettled weather could continue through Thursday as the main atmospheric disturbance nears. That said, most forecast models have a cold front clearing the area by Friday, which should offer clearing skies for Game 1 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium. There is a chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm as the disturbance begins to exit the area (won't quite be gone by Friday). We'll have a full forecast for the game beginning later tonight, so stay tuned! 


Article written by JH. Published September 28th, 2011 at 1:18am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing low pressure affecting our area Friday

The partly cloudy skies over the region Tuesday Night were a welcomed sight for those who couldn't wait to escape the rain and cloudy conditions that we endured most of the day on Tuesday. However, they won't last long...and unfortunately most of Wednesday may feature clouds as well. A disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere will approach from south to north (moving from the Mid-Atlantic states towards our area), bringing clouds and the potential for scattered showers with it. This weak disturbance is one very isolated "spoke" of energy related to a much bigger storm system which is back to our west over the Central United States. So although it may provide our area with unsettled conditions on Wednesday, the real heavy rain may not come until Friday into Saturday, when the large mid and upper level storm nears the area. Highs tomorrow, despite the clouds and potential showers, will be much warmer than the past few days...reaching into the middle 70's. You can thank the warm front which passed on Tuesday (bringing us showers and clouds) for the warmer weather. Unfortunately, we won't have the luxury of the enjoying the warmth in the sun.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Partly cloudy early, then becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of scattered showers. Warmer, with highs near 77. Southeast winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 30%. We'd recommend short sleeves despite the increasing clouds...temperatures in the mid 70's will feel warm compared to the last week or so!

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60's. Southeast winds around 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Definitely bring a sweatshirt along.

SHOWERS & CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...

A large storm system over the Central United States is forecast to shift eastward towards the Ohio Valley and Northeast by this weekend. Smaller disturbances will affect our area through the week, before the heavy rain potential arrives Friday and early Saturday. Although it's too early to pinpoint where the heaviest rain will occur, it's certainly safe at this point to say that the end of the week into the first half of the weekend does not look pretty. The potential for heavy rain amounts definitely exists as tropical moisture gets involved on Friday as well. We will keep you updated over the next few days as the system draws closer, and the forecast models begin to converge on the area of heaviest rain as well as the timing of the precipitation.

Article written by John Homenuk. Published September 21st, 2011 at 12:50am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.