GFS model showing a ridge of high pressure over the Eastern US

A ridge of high pressure has taken hold of the weather pattern over the area, and over the next few days we will experience continued fair conditions. In fact, temperatures could warm steadily over the next few days as well, with high temperatures approaching 80 degrees in the usual warm locations by the tail end of this weekend. However, before then, temperatures will remain slightly below seasonal averages for high temperatures today on Thursday. Despite the high pressure and fair weather, the atmosphere is still recovering from the big storm system which provided our area with unsettled weather for two weeks. Until this recovery occurs, temperatures will still only top out in the 60's to near 70. Today is forecast to be one of the cooler days, with high temperatures only reaching into the middle 60's. There will be a northwest breeze, but nothing near the windy conditions we experienced on Wednesday. By evening, during Game 5 of the ALDS in the Bronx (See the forecast below), clear skies and cool temperatures in the 50's are forecast.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. Light north/northwest winds and low dew points will have the air feeling crisp and fresh. Enjoy it!

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low near 51. Another cool night with light northerly winds. A beautiful fall evening for sure.




Game 5 of the American League Division Series will be played in the Bronx on Thursday Night, as the Yankees look to advance to the Championship Series for the third consecutive year. Weather has been a significant inhibitor to games thus far during this series--but we have no problems with this forecast. Clear skies, temperatures near 60 around game time. Northwest winds, with temperatures falling into the 50's during the game. It's going to be a crystal clear, crisp October air in place for what promises to be a great night in the Bronx. Go Yankees. For updates on the forecast, check out our Twitter account. 


Article written by JH. Published October 6th, 2011 at 12:53am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model showing the low pressure out of the picture, and high pressure building in this week.

Stagnant, slow moving, stalled, blocked, persistent. Those are all words which we have used to describe the upper level low pressure system which sat near or over our area for a good part of the past two or more weeks. Finally, we have only one word to use starting Wednesday: Gone. The storm system is on it's way east of New England, on the move towards a weakness in the pattern which will (finally) allow it to escape to the Atlantic. A ridge and high pressure will then build into the area starting today and continuing through Friday, and not only will the weather be fair, but temperatures will rise towards average and above average as we approach the weekend. In fact, high temperatures could again be approaching 80 degrees by the tail end of the weekend. Still, lets not get too far ahead of ourselves just yet. Today looks to be a gorgeous day, with high temperatures near 70 and mostly sunny skies. A northwesterly breeze and low dew points will have the air feeling brisk, clean, and new, a big change from the past few weeks. We know everybody will be enjoying it! 

NAM model showing rain  to our west today over Central Pennsylvania, while our area remains dry.

The forecast hasn't changed much over the past week and a half, as each day as offered mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers throughout the day. Some days have featured heavier rain, some have featured just showery activity. Sunday looks to be no different, as the stagnant disturbance in the atmosphere responsible for this mess over the last week or more is still moving near the area. The good news is that despite the threat for showers early, all forecast models indicate a break in the action associated with a dry slot in the middle of the atmosphere (less moisture to support rain and clouds). This break is forecast to occur after the late morning hours and continue through the early afternoon, before some showers re-enter the forecast during the later afternoon. Timing these breaks is extremely difficult, but we figured it would be worth a mention considering how dreary the weather has been of late. The main deal with Sunday will be the temperatures, which will barely scrape into the low 60's. The northerly winds will keep it feeling cool, raw, and damp.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Sunday): Mostly cloudy early, with a chance of showers. Then becoming partly cloudy, with a chance of showers. High near 64. Northeast wind around 10 miles per hour. Bring a long sleeved shirt or a sweatshirt--it's going to be feeling chilly out there.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Low near 50--damp and cool. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 miles per hour. Long sleeved shirts or sweatshirts are recommended once again.

ALDS GAME 2 FORECAST....

The two-day extravaganza that was Game 1 now a distant memory, and one Yankees win later, we look ahead towards Game 2 with a better forecast. The disturbance near the area will calm down a bit on Sunday, as it continues spinning just to our west. Although a chance of isolated to scattered showers exists on Sunday, there's a growing possibility that a dry slot (lack of moisture to produce clouds and rain) in the atmosphere could enter the area just before game time. This means we may actually see the sun during the game (amazing, we know). Stay here through the day and we'll keep you as updated as we can.

Article written by JH. Published October 2nd, 2011 at 1:36am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend and upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

Tarp covers a rain-soaked Yankee Stadium on Friday evening.

September closed as a continuation of August, which remained one of the wettest periods in New York City's recorded history. October won't begin any differently, as a storm system off the coast re-develops through the early morning hours...bringing moderate to heavy rain through the area. The rain is expected to continue, albeit more showery, through the afternoon. There may be a break in the action during the early afternoon, but by evening the showers will be around again. The weather Friday night caused disruption to the ALDS Game 1, which was postponed and rescheduled for tonight at 8:37pm. Unfortunately, it looks as if the Yankees will be battling the rain once again. This certainly won't go over well with those who are returning to the game to see the final innings (the game is being started where it was suspended, in the bottom of the 2nd inning and tied at 1). The rain looks to be more showery in nature than it was on Friday, but it won't be pleasant to say the least. Temperatures by evening will also be cooler than they were on Friday, and the rain and breeze will make it feel raw.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Saturday): Mostly cloudy, with rain likely in the morning. Then mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers through the evening. High temperatures near 66. North winds around 10 miles per hour--feeling damp and dreary. Chance of precipitation 100% early, 50% late.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Low temperatures falling into the lower 50's. North winds continued around 10 miles per hour.

FALL FOLIAGE UPDATE...

The progress of the yearly Fall Foliage and leaf drop continues to gain steam as the season continues to progress, but the overall color change throughout the Northeast United States remains well behind that of last year. Low color has only barely begun in Northwest New Jersey, and the color remains below the scale of color change elsewhere. Meanwhile, to our north over New England, low to moderate color has been observed over the mountains of New York State, Vermont, and New Hampshire and extending into Maine. Our color change usually becomes dramatic, in this part of the country, around the first weekend of October. So although we are running behind schedule, it's nothing too drastic. We should begin to see low to moderate color change within a week. The rain and cooler temperatures will definitely help.

NAM model forecasting a line of showers and storms near the area around 8:00pm today.

A persistent and stagnant storm in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere has finally made it's way towards the area, and it brought a cold front through the region on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms were widespread throughout the day, even becoming strong to severe during the afternoon. Areas of Northeast New Jersey experienced 0.88" hail and severe, damaging winds...which toppled trees and caused damage in Eastern Bergen County. This front has since passed the area, but the system is beginning it's interaction with another storm to it's north. As the two "phase" (meteorological term for interact/become one), another low pressure area will come up the east coast Saturday morning. The trouble in Fridays forecast is trying to time the re-development of showers and storms, and see if we can squeak out a dry day to close out the week. Remaining totally dry seems somewhat unlikely, but during the afternoon temperatures should reach into the middle to upper 70's with some sun. Afterwards, showers and storms are forecast to develop...scattered at first...by early evening, and then become more widespread by early Saturday morning

THE FORECAST..

Today (Friday): Partly cloudy early, with a chance isolated of showers and thunderstorms. Then becoming mostly cloudy by evening, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. High near 78. South-southwest winds around 10 miles per hour. It will feel pretty warm during the afternoon--so don't be fooled by the chance of showers..if you're heading out, don't wear anything too heavy. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures falling to near 60 overnight, with a westerly breeze developing. Definitely bring the rain gear in case, and dress appropriately as temperatures will feel pretty cool. Chance of precipitation is 50%

ALDS GAME 1 FORECAST...

The New York Yankees are scheduled to play the first game of the American League Division Series tonight, squaring off against the Detroit Tigers at 8:37pm at Yankee Stadium. Showers and thunderstorms, albiet scattered, are in the forecast. For the very latest on the development of showers and storms as the game approaches, check our latest forecast for the game (both game 1 and 2). Also, be sure to check our Twitter Feed for up to the minute updates.

Article written by JH. Published September 30th, 2011 at 12:01am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

In case you haven't heard yet, the New York Yankees are gearing up for the 2011 American League  Division Series which will be played beginning this Friday in the Bronx. During the stretch of the regular season the Yankees have experienced a tremendous amount of weather related delays, game impacts, and postponements. Ultimately, these weather related impacts (although seemingly small at the time), have had impacts on the team during the season including doubleheaders and shortened/adjusted travel time. All of that said, Autumn is what we like to call a "transition season" here in New York City. The pattern is changing, and the weather can abruptly change as well. This time of year often brings the potential for some nasty weather (remember the Angels wearing the face masks to keep warm in the 2009 ALCS?....yeah), and it's our job to keep you updated on what's happening. Whether you're headed out to the stadium, expected to be out and about that night, or simply looking to check up to see if there's any problems expected, this is your place to be. 


The bad news, at the current time, is that the atmosphere looks to be unsettled during the first two games at Yankee Stadium. The details are below...


THE FORECAST...
To keep it simple, there are two cold fronts that are forecast to pass the area. The first is passing through Thursday evening. There could be a period of heavy rain with this front. Behind it, winds will kick up a bit out of the south through Friday afternoon. The second front will be near the area around game time. It is hard to say at this time whether or not this front will produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. It may very well pass the area without much notice, or it may touch off storms that could impact the area around the 830pm start time. One thing working in our direction: moisture in the atmosphere will be less, because of the first front passing in the morning. We will be watching carefully!




The airmass will be much cooler by the time Game 2 of the ALDS rolls around on Saturday. There is a chance, again, for scattered showers. The front will be to the east of the area, but the atmosphere will still be unstable and unsettled. This will be a situation where we will have to watch carefully as the day goes on to see what's developing. By the latter half of the evening (later in the game), the air will be cooler, and temperatures by evening should fall into the 50's. Northwest winds, and a cool high pressure building in, will make it feel like October baseball for sure. 

Storm Prediction Center's probability of a severe wind gust within 25 miles of a point on Thursday. Full outlook

The mid level disturbance which caused over a weeks worth of unsettled weather is finally nearing the area, and it's bringing a threat of thunderstorms with it. Thursday could start off relatively decent, although overnight and early morning showers will make it feel less than ideal, the rain will not be heavy (at least early). By the early afternoon, our area will be in a small "warm sector" (the area ahead of a cold front). Temperatures are forecast to increase into the middle to possibly upper 70's in some areas during the early and mid part of the afternoon. This is thanks to southerly winds and the aforementioned warm sector, with the cold front our west. As the mid level disturbance nears our area, and pushes the cold front in our direction, the fronts interaction with this warmer, more humid, and slightly unstable air will trigger the development of thunderstorms. Some could be strong, with heavy rain...lightning and thunder, as well as the possibility for some strong winds. The storms should move from west to east through around 9pm, and will be gone by the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a "5% risk" for severe thunderstorms today. Please see their latest forecast for more information.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy early, with showers likely. Then becoming partly cloudy in the early afternoon, followed by showers and thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon. Some storms may be strong with heavy rain and strong winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. High near 76. South winds 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms early, then clearing. Partly cloudy, with a low near 56. Winds west-southeast at 10 miles per hour. Definitely bring along the long sleeves if you're going to be and about Thursday night. It will feel cooler than the past few.

LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL...

Unsettled weather has, generally (sans the first two days of the week), plagued our area over the past week or more. The threat of unsettled weather could continue through Thursday as the main atmospheric disturbance nears. That said, most forecast models have a cold front clearing the area by Friday, which should offer clearing skies for Game 1 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium. There is a chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm as the disturbance begins to exit the area (won't quite be gone by Friday). We'll have a full forecast for the game beginning later tonight, so stay tuned! 


Article written by JH. Published September 29th, 2011 at 1:53am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

In case you haven't heard yet, the New York Yankees are gearing up for the 2011 American League Division Series which will be played beginning this Friday in the Bronx. During the stretch of the regular season the Yankees have experienced a tremendous amount of weather related delays, game impacts, and postponements. Ultimately, these weather related impacts (although seemingly small at the time), have had impacts on the team during the season including doubleheaders and shortened/adjusted travel time. All of that said, Autumn is what we like to call a "transition season" here in New York City. The pattern is changing, and the weather can abruptly change as well. This time of year often brings the potential for some nasty weather (remember the Angels wearing the face masks to keep warm in the 2009 ALCS?....yeah), and it's our job to keep you updated on what's happening. Whether you're headed out to the stadium, expected to be out and about that night, or simply looking to check up to see if there's any problems expected, this is your place to be. 

We'll be adding graphics, information, etc as we draw closer to Game 1 (and onward), so make sure to check back often.


Friday (Game 1): Game time temperature: ~70°, falling during game. | Game time winds: South, 10 mph.


To keep it simple, there are two cold fronts that are forecast to pass the area on Friday. The first, which we are more confident in, will pass Friday morning. There could be a period of heavy rain with this front. Behind it, winds will kick up a bit out of the south through Friday afternoon. The second front will be near the area around game time. It is hard to say at this time whether or not this front will produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. It may very well pass the area without much notice, or it may touch off storms that could impact the area around the 830pm start time. One thing working in our direction: moisture in the atmosphere will be less, because of the first front passing in the morning. We will be watching carefully!

Saturday (Game 2): Game time temperature: ~60°, falling into the low 50's during game. | Game time winds: Northwest, 10 mph.


The airmass will be much cooler by the time Game 2 of the ALDS rolls around on Saturday. There is a chance, again, for a scattered shower..but they will be less widespread. The air will be cooler, and temperatures by evening should fall into the 50's. Northwest winds, and a cool high pressure building in, will make it feel like a beautiful night for October baseball in the Bronx. 

Article published September 28th, 2011 at 1:17am. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.