Storm Prediction Center's probability of a severe wind gust within 25 miles of a point on Thursday. Full outlook

The mid level disturbance which caused over a weeks worth of unsettled weather is finally nearing the area, and it's bringing a threat of thunderstorms with it. Thursday could start off relatively decent, although overnight and early morning showers will make it feel less than ideal, the rain will not be heavy (at least early). By the early afternoon, our area will be in a small "warm sector" (the area ahead of a cold front). Temperatures are forecast to increase into the middle to possibly upper 70's in some areas during the early and mid part of the afternoon. This is thanks to southerly winds and the aforementioned warm sector, with the cold front our west. As the mid level disturbance nears our area, and pushes the cold front in our direction, the fronts interaction with this warmer, more humid, and slightly unstable air will trigger the development of thunderstorms. Some could be strong, with heavy rain...lightning and thunder, as well as the possibility for some strong winds. The storms should move from west to east through around 9pm, and will be gone by the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a "5% risk" for severe thunderstorms today. Please see their latest forecast for more information.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy early, with showers likely. Then becoming partly cloudy in the early afternoon, followed by showers and thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon. Some storms may be strong with heavy rain and strong winds. Chance of precipitation is 60%. High near 76. South winds 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms early, then clearing. Partly cloudy, with a low near 56. Winds west-southeast at 10 miles per hour. Definitely bring along the long sleeves if you're going to be and about Thursday night. It will feel cooler than the past few.

LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL...

Unsettled weather has, generally (sans the first two days of the week), plagued our area over the past week or more. The threat of unsettled weather could continue through Thursday as the main atmospheric disturbance nears. That said, most forecast models have a cold front clearing the area by Friday, which should offer clearing skies for Game 1 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium. There is a chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm as the disturbance begins to exit the area (won't quite be gone by Friday). We'll have a full forecast for the game beginning later tonight, so stay tuned! 


Article written by JH. Published September 29th, 2011 at 1:53am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.