NAM model showing rain  to our west today over Central Pennsylvania, while our area remains dry.

The forecast hasn't changed much over the past week and a half, as each day as offered mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers throughout the day. Some days have featured heavier rain, some have featured just showery activity. Sunday looks to be no different, as the stagnant disturbance in the atmosphere responsible for this mess over the last week or more is still moving near the area. The good news is that despite the threat for showers early, all forecast models indicate a break in the action associated with a dry slot in the middle of the atmosphere (less moisture to support rain and clouds). This break is forecast to occur after the late morning hours and continue through the early afternoon, before some showers re-enter the forecast during the later afternoon. Timing these breaks is extremely difficult, but we figured it would be worth a mention considering how dreary the weather has been of late. The main deal with Sunday will be the temperatures, which will barely scrape into the low 60's. The northerly winds will keep it feeling cool, raw, and damp.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Sunday): Mostly cloudy early, with a chance of showers. Then becoming partly cloudy, with a chance of showers. High near 64. Northeast wind around 10 miles per hour. Bring a long sleeved shirt or a sweatshirt--it's going to be feeling chilly out there.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Low near 50--damp and cool. Southwest winds around 5 to 10 miles per hour. Long sleeved shirts or sweatshirts are recommended once again.

ALDS GAME 2 FORECAST....

The two-day extravaganza that was Game 1 now a distant memory, and one Yankees win later, we look ahead towards Game 2 with a better forecast. The disturbance near the area will calm down a bit on Sunday, as it continues spinning just to our west. Although a chance of isolated to scattered showers exists on Sunday, there's a growing possibility that a dry slot (lack of moisture to produce clouds and rain) in the atmosphere could enter the area just before game time. This means we may actually see the sun during the game (amazing, we know). Stay here through the day and we'll keep you as updated as we can.

Article written by JH. Published October 2nd, 2011 at 1:36am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend and upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model's forecast low temperatures tonight

In a weekend characterized by fall-like weather throughout the area, the trend will continue as we close it  out. This evening is expected to be another pleasant one, with partly cloudy skies accompanied by cool and crisp conditions. A storm system off to our east continues to shift away from the area, and it will bring the clouds (which interfered with the area's weather on both Friday and Saturday) with it. Through tonight, high pressure is expected to build back in and take control of the area's weather once again. This high pressure is forecast to dominate the forecast through Monday and the first half of Tuesday. Tonight's low temperatures look to be heading to very cool numbers once again, with the city and metro area dropping into the 50's and the interior/suburban areas and higher elevations falling into the 40's. We hope you had a great weekend, and hope you are able to enjoy the pleasant weather over the next several hours as we try and hold on to the last few hours of Sunday.

Through Tonight: Mostly sunny through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Temperatures in the 60's with light northeast winds. Then, mostly clear through the evening with temperatures dropping into the low 50's in the city. Cooler inland, with temperatures in the mid 40's.

Monday: Mostly sunny and a bit warmer than the past few days--overall a beautiful day. High temperatures will approach the upper 60's to near 70. Winds will be relatively light.


The work week looks to follow the trend of the past several days, with some fair days and some unsettled days. High pressure will be in control on Monday and the first half of Tuesday, bringing fair weather. In fact, it could return towards normal levels on both of those days with high temperatures climbing into the lower 70's and mid 70's respectively. By Tuesday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of a warm front. The forecast may remain unsettled, with a chance of showers, through the middle of the week.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 18th, 2011 at 4:08pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend and next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model showing winds off the ocean Sunday afternoon.

A back door cold front is making it's presence known in the forecast area this morning, and will continue to  do so through the remainder of the day. A back door cold front gets it's name from it's origin, which is to our east or northeast. Normal cold fronts enter the area from the west or northwest. Back door cold fronts usually bring maritime air into the area and winds off the water, and this one will be no different  Although it won't be a washout the front will still bring in cooler air off the ocean. In addition, increased humidity and cloudiness will enter the forecast, making for less than ideal conditions today. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist throughout the area beginning this morning and continuing through all of Sunday, although the precipitation should be more showery than steady as mentioned earlier. The atmosphere won't be unstable enough to support many thunderstorms. It won't be continuous or non-stop, but it definitely will be noticeably different than Friday and the first half of Saturday, which offered temperatures into the 80's. 
THE FORECAST...


Today (Sunday): Mostly cloudy, with a chance of scattered showers throughout the day. East winds and overcast skies will keep temperatures down into the middle 70's. The air will feel much cooler than the past few days, but it should still be relatively humid. 


Tonight (Sunday Night): Continued mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers as the back door cold front holds on through the overnight period. Temperatures dropping into the mid 60's throughout most of the area. Bring long sleeved gear to stay warm if you're going to be out and about. 


An early look ahead to the week: Some clearing is forecast by early next week, but the main story that we're looking ahead to is the potential for our first "fall like" cold front, which could enter the area by the middle to later part of the week. If it does come to fruition, the dew points would lower greatly and the air would feel crisp and fresh for the first time in a while. We'll see! 


A FINAL NOTE...


Although we prefer not to indulge into national events, in a day in time when political stances are often extremely over analyzed, today is a bit different. The world changed permanently 10 years ago today, and whether you agree or not with our countries strategical decisions since then, today is a day for us to recognize the heroes which are among us still. Not only were there thousands of heroes in our own city 10 years ago, there are still hundreds of thousands of heroes fighting for our freedom today. Without them, much of what we do on a daily basis would not be possible.


So, take a moment today to think about their sacrifices. Take a moment to say thank you for what they've done and continue to do. We wish we could thank each and every one of them in person, but instead we have a blog post. Although words can only say so much, we will use them to say thank you, and God bless America. 


Article written by John Homenuk, September 11th, 2011 at 1:16am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model's forecast high temps for Sunday

The warmer air which made it's home in our area much of this summer returned yesterday (Friday), and looks to stick around through at least early Monday. A mid and upper level ridge is leading the way in advecting this warm airmass into the area, which initially struggled to make it's move here at the tail end of last week. A back door cold front was to blame for that, and generally kept high temperatures in the upper 70's to near 80, but it's a distant memory at this point. Although temperatures were not overly hot yesterday, dew points rose dramatically compared to the past few days, even getting near 70 F by the afternoon. This made the airmass feel much warmer, muggier, and heavier...adding to the summer-like feel which we spoke about in the evening update on Saturday. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Sunday, and the sun will make it feel like temperatures are in the lower 90's at least.

Today (Sunday): Partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 80's. A chance of showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Warm and humid air will make it feel warmer than the thermometer reads. . Winds southwest and then turning south, around 5 to 10 miles per hour. Short sleeved shirts will definitely suffice through the evening. The showers and storms are more likely to the west---and should be isolated.


Tonight (Sunday Night): Partly cloudy, with a chance of showers and storms early. Low temperatures only forecast to drop into the upper 60's to low 70's. Winds south at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Short sleeved shirts should do once again, but if you're in a typically cooler area, you may want to bring a long sleeved shirt to be safe.

NAM model showing 500mb energy (middle of the atmosphere)

Tropics and heavy rain to highlight next week: Unfortunately, the beautiful weather we've been experiencing over the past several days seems to finally be losing it's grip on the area, at least judging from most forecast models and the pattern evolution over the next several days.. Tropical Storm Lee is forecast to make landfall on the Gulf Coast and move inland---and then phase/interact with a northern stream disturbance over the Central US (pictured to the left with the remnants of lee just to it's east over PA). The result will be the development of moderate to heavy rain and a low pressure system moving along a front near the area Monday Night into Tuesday. The forecast remains highly uncertain, though...so don't cancel any plans yet. Low confidence forecast to say the least.

Regarding the actual systems themselves; Katia and Lee are both Tropical Storms as of the 11:00pm National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory. Katia's sustained winds are near 70 miles per hour, while Lee's are near 50. As far as impacts on our area (we already discussed Lee's remnants and potential for impacts), Katia still looks to recurve to our east over the open waters of the Atlantic. However, the storm is still several days away so we urge caution in the forecast track beyond around 3 days or so. The statistics, synoptics, and meteorology argue against any track that could impact our area, but it's important to remember how far away the storm is, and how much the pattern could change as it moves towards our area. We will, of course, keep you updated.

Article written September 4th, 2011 at 12:01am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.