NAM model's forecast high temps for Sunday

The warmer air which made it's home in our area much of this summer returned yesterday (Friday), and looks to stick around through at least early Monday. A mid and upper level ridge is leading the way in advecting this warm airmass into the area, which initially struggled to make it's move here at the tail end of last week. A back door cold front was to blame for that, and generally kept high temperatures in the upper 70's to near 80, but it's a distant memory at this point. Although temperatures were not overly hot yesterday, dew points rose dramatically compared to the past few days, even getting near 70 F by the afternoon. This made the airmass feel much warmer, muggier, and heavier...adding to the summer-like feel which we spoke about in the evening update on Saturday. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Sunday, and the sun will make it feel like temperatures are in the lower 90's at least.

Today (Sunday): Partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 80's. A chance of showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Warm and humid air will make it feel warmer than the thermometer reads. . Winds southwest and then turning south, around 5 to 10 miles per hour. Short sleeved shirts will definitely suffice through the evening. The showers and storms are more likely to the west---and should be isolated.


Tonight (Sunday Night): Partly cloudy, with a chance of showers and storms early. Low temperatures only forecast to drop into the upper 60's to low 70's. Winds south at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Short sleeved shirts should do once again, but if you're in a typically cooler area, you may want to bring a long sleeved shirt to be safe.

NAM model showing 500mb energy (middle of the atmosphere)

Tropics and heavy rain to highlight next week: Unfortunately, the beautiful weather we've been experiencing over the past several days seems to finally be losing it's grip on the area, at least judging from most forecast models and the pattern evolution over the next several days.. Tropical Storm Lee is forecast to make landfall on the Gulf Coast and move inland---and then phase/interact with a northern stream disturbance over the Central US (pictured to the left with the remnants of lee just to it's east over PA). The result will be the development of moderate to heavy rain and a low pressure system moving along a front near the area Monday Night into Tuesday. The forecast remains highly uncertain, though...so don't cancel any plans yet. Low confidence forecast to say the least.

Regarding the actual systems themselves; Katia and Lee are both Tropical Storms as of the 11:00pm National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory. Katia's sustained winds are near 70 miles per hour, while Lee's are near 50. As far as impacts on our area (we already discussed Lee's remnants and potential for impacts), Katia still looks to recurve to our east over the open waters of the Atlantic. However, the storm is still several days away so we urge caution in the forecast track beyond around 3 days or so. The statistics, synoptics, and meteorology argue against any track that could impact our area, but it's important to remember how far away the storm is, and how much the pattern could change as it moves towards our area. We will, of course, keep you updated.

Article written September 4th, 2011 at 12:01am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.