National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Maria, issued 9/7/2011 11pm.

Hurricane Katia was a major story over the last week as she churned in the South-Central Atlantic Ocean. However, now that she is recurving to the north and northeast, the main story will become the two new named storms, Tropical Storm Maria and Tropical Storm Nate, in the Southern Atlantic and Southern Gulf respectively. Maria has sustained winds near 50 miles per hour, and Nate with winds near 45 miles per hour, at the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) update from 11:00pm (September 7th). Tropical Storm Nate is forecast to loop back to the northwest in the Gulf of Mexico, and then strengthen as he heads westward towards the Mexico coast. At the time, Nate is not forecast to make landfall on United States landfall, and certainly will not affect our area as he moves westward in the Gulf of Mexico. 


Maria will certainly be the bigger topic of conversation in our area, as she continues on a northwest heading from the south-central Atlantic towards the Carribean. She is currently forecast to pass north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic this weekend. Although she is beginning farther south than Katia, early indications from forecast models are that Maria may take a similar path between the East Coast of the US and Bermuda, affecting neither. That being said, the system is still very far from land and several days away from her approach towards the United States. Much can change over that time span which could affect her ultimate path. We will certainly be keeping a close eye on her in the meantime.


Stick with us over the next several days, as we have introduced a new Tropical blog post which will be updated at the very least twice a day. We'll be sure to link the main blog post forecast to this post as well. 


Article written by John Homenuk,  September 8th, 2011 at 12:08am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Current radar image from wxunderground shows the movement and intensity of precipitation over the last hour. Click to enlarge.

A frontal boundary stalled near the area interacting with both the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee and a disturbance near the Great Lakes has been the focus for heavy rainfall over the past several hours. In fact, much of Tuesday was characterized by continuous rain throughout the forecast area. Flood Warnings remain in effect for much of the area through Wednesday morning (and will expire by afternoon). The good news for Wednesday is that the heaviest of rain should move back to the north and west of the area; and will be situated over Central and Northeastern Pennsylvania and Central and Southeast New York by Wednesday afternoon. A ridge in the middle of the atmosphere will flex it's muscles a bit by Wednesday afternoon, allowing for a bit of a rebound from the damp, overcast, and dreary weather. Although clouds will stick around and dominate the skies for the most part, they will definitely be less thick when compared to Tuesday as the middle of the atmosphere will be drier. The chance of showers will be high, but the rain as mentioned will not be as steady and continuous. Overall, though, Wednesday will definitely be defined as another dreary day when compared to our "normal" weather for this time of year.


THE FORECAST...
Today (Wednesday): Cloudy, with showers likely throughout the day. The rain won't be steady at all times throughout the day, but the showers could be heavy at times. High temperatures may crack 70, a few degrees warmer than Tuesday. Winds east at 10 to 15 miles per hour, keeping the air feeling generally raw. Chance of precipitation is near 100 percent. Definitely bring a long sleeved shirt, sweatshirt, and rain gear once again.
Tonight (Wednesday Night): Cloudy once again with showers remaining likely. Again, not steady, but the showers could be heavy at times. Low temperatures into the low to mid 60's. Long-sleeved and sweatshirt/rain attire would be a good idea (again). 


TROPICS UPDATE...

Tropical model guidance for Tropical Depression #14 from Wednesday Morning (9/7/2011)

Tropical Depression #14 officially formed Tuesday afternoon over the Central Atlantic Ocean. With maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour at the 11:00pm National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory from Tuesday Night, the depression is forecast to continue on a North and West heading over the next several days. The storm is still several (at the very least) days away from impacting any United States soil, and the weather pattern which will surround the storm when it approaches the area remains highly uncertain. Therefore, it is well too early to speculate where the Tropical Depression may track. What we do know is that it is forecast to move just north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic by this weekend, and we will be watching it very carefully over the next several days. 


Hurricane Katia remains a strong hurricane today with winds sustained at 105 miles per hour. Katia is still expected to remain a few hundred miles out to sea, but her impacts may be felt at the area beaches with some higher surf, and the potential for rip tides and light beach erosion. Those impacts would be felt Thursday through Friday when the storm makes her closest pass to the area. Wave height models are currently indicating maximum wave potential near 9 feet for a few hours along the Jersey Shore and the east end of Long Island. These heights should be isolated, but would be interesting to see to say the least. We'll keep you updated on her movement and intensity as she continues her movement across the Atlantic ocean during the early to middle part of this week. 


Article written September 7th, 2011 at 12:02am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Current radar image from wxunderground shows  themovement and intensity of precipitation over the last hour. Click to enlarge.

The first full week of September, and the first full week of meteorological autumn, looks to be kicked off by a dreary day today. Tuesday will feature a very good chance of clouds, as well as frequent chances for moderate to heavy rain, and generally elusive sunshine. This could theoretically continue through Wednesday and maybe even Thursday as an upper level disturbance hangs around the area. Back to today, a frontal boundary near the area will be the cause for considerable cloudiness and the chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day. The National Weather Service has issued Flash Flood Watches and Flash Flood Warnings for much of the area including New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, and Southeast New York. Although the brunt of the very heavy rain may stay off to the west of the metro area, the daytime high temperatures will be held down by the aforementioned clouds and rainfall, with highs only forecast to reach into the middle to upper 60's. The winds out of the east will make it feel quite raw outdoors compared to the past few days of summer-like weather.

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THE FORECAST...


Today (Tuesday): Cloudy, with rain likely throughout the day. The rain may not be continuous, but will be off and on for the duration of the day. High temperatures will only reach towards the upper 60's. Long sleeved shirts, jeans, sweatshirts, rain gear. Pick your poison, they'll all work out fine during the day today.

Tonight (Tuesday Night): Not much better. Still cloudy, still a good chance of rain especially in the first half of the overnight period. Low temperatures dropping towards 60 degrees overnight. Again, long sleeves, jeans, sweatshirts should be the attire of choice if you're going to be outdoors. Oh, and of course, an umbrella.

A look ahead: The rain should become lighter and less expansive in coverage by Wednesday and Thursday, but the pattern will remain unsettled with showers still around through the middle of the week at least. Temperatures will likely be running a bit below seasonal averages.

TROPICAL UPDATE...

National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Katia issued at 11:00pm 9/5/2011

Hurricane Katia has strengthened into a Major Category 4 Hurricane as of the latest 11:00pm National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory from last night. Katia has sustained winds of 135 miles per hour and is moving to the north at 10 miles per hour. Some further intensification is possible before she begins her northward and eventually northeastward turn away from the coast. Katia is still expected to remain a few hundred miles out to sea, but her impacts may be felt at the area beaches with some higher surf, and the potential for rip tides and light beach erosion. Those impacts would be felt Thursday through Friday when the storm makes her closest pass to the area. We'll keep you updated on her movement and intensity as she continues her movement across the Atlantic ocean during the early to middle part of this week. 


Article written September 6th, 2011 at 12:04am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model showing rain to our west on Monday

We hope you've enjoyed the pleasant weather that has marked the last several days since the passage  of Irene last weekend. Although the air was initially cooler and crisp, a bit of a summer-like feel has worked it's way into the region the last few days as a ridge both in the middle of the atmosphere and at the surface allowed for a good amount of warming.  Temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday worked into the middle 80's, with dew points rising towards 70 degrees making the air feel moist and humid. Additionally, overnight low temperatures only dropped (and are forecast to drop Monday morning) to near 70 degrees. That being said, we can't complain as the sun has been shining for a good majority of the last week. That's all to change soon, as a frontal boundary is forecast to stall near the area and interact with both a disturbance near the Great Lakes and the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee. We have a whole ton of information below, so make sure to keep reading and stay informed!

Today (Labor Day): Labor day will be characterized by unsettled weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms early (in the wee hours of the morning) will give way to a break in precipitation during the late morning and afternoon hours, although clouds could stick around. High's will rise into the mid 80's during the afternoon. Then, as the front nears the area and begins to interact with energy in the middle of the atmosphere, rain is forecast to increase in coverage especially over western areas. The rain will be slower to arrive farther to the east, but showers and thunderstorms will still be around. In response, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for western portions of the forecast area for the potential of heavy rain and isolated flooding.


Tonight (Monday Night): Cloudy, and rain and thunderstorms are still around. The amount of coverage will depend on the exact positioning of the front, which remains uncertain. That being said, we are certain enough regardless of the exact positioning of the heaviest and steadiest rain...to say that rain is likely throughout much of the area Monday Night. The Flood Watch previously mentioned remains in effect through Tuesday morning. Low temperatures dropping into the upper 60's. Sweatshirts and rain gear should be worn.
THE DETAILS...

Heavy rain positioning remains uncertain: As we mentioned above, the exact area that receives the heaviest rain remains somewhat up in the air. The pattern will be unstable as a front stalls near the area, but the exact positioning of the front will determine where the heaviest rain can track. The front will have extra juice from both a disturbance over the Great Lakes, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee moving northeast through the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic. For instance, the NAM model keeps the front just to the west of the area and the heavy rain remains over Eastern Pennsyvlania and Western New Jersey. Some other forecast models have the front nearer to the region, bringing moderate to heavy rain over the area through Tuesday.

NAM forecast total rain ending Wednesday

Obviously, we're concerned about the potential for heavy rains over isolated areas in this set up. Our area has been impacted by heavy rains over the last month (we set the all time wettest month record at NYC in August), and the last thing we need is more rain. But the truth is, at this time, that the forecast models are just too inconsistent for us to officially nail down where this front will be. Our best guess would be that the heaviest rain should be relegated to Eastern PA and Western NJ, with moderate rains over NYC, tapering to lesser rains farther to the east. This makes the most synoptic sense given the current placement of the front and a blend of the forecast models. Still, the uncertainty is troubling. We'll stick with you guys on both Facebook and Twitter, and obviously here as well, to keep you as updated as possible.

Article written September 5th, 2011 at 12:17am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM models forecast lows for tonight

Temperatures today, although warmer than the past several days, have so far been held down by clouds which began entering the area earlier this afternoon around 3:00pm. The clouds are mostly located to the north over New Jersey, Southeast New York, and the New York City area, where temperatures decidedly stopped rising around that time. In fact, many areas will likely have recorded their daily highs around 1 or 2 pm. Farther south, and even near the shore, temperatures were a degree or two warmer as the daytime sun was able to warm things up. The summer-air is still here, though, as dew points in the upper 60's to near 70 remain in place over the area. This will keep the air feeling humid and warm through this evening. Temperatures are expected to remain comfortably warm, though, so don't let the clouds fool you if your'e going to be headed out for the labor day weekend tonight. A short sleeved shirt and shorts will still suffice for this evening.

Severe storms only an isolated threat: The Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of severe weather over Pennsylvania and Northwest New Jersey, but the threat is expected to be scattered with the potential for a few damaging wind gusts if any storms can make there way into the area. Farther to the south and east over New Jersey and the New York City Metro area, the threat will be far more isolated.. In fact, the threat for any rain will be isolated through this evening. We'll keep you updated.

Tonight (Sunday Night): A slight chance of thunderstorms, with low temperatures dropping only to near 70. Again, short sleeved shirts and shorts will be fine, but you may want to bring a sweatshirt along near the shore as it may be a bit cooler there with southerly winds (especially true for the south shore of long island with a wind off the water.

Tomorrow (Labor Day): Unfortunately, Labor Day looks to feature a rising chance of rain and cloudiness, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will only reach towards the low 80's, with south winds. The rain and thunderstorms could be heavy at times. Definitely bring rain gear and a sweatshirt along if you're going to be outside.

Tropics and heavy rain to highlight next week: Unfortunately, the beautiful weather we've been experiencing over the past several days seems to finally be losing it's grip on the area, at least judging from most forecast models and the pattern evolution over the next several days.. Tropical Storm Lee is forecast to make landfall on the Gulf Coast and move inland---and then phase/interact with a northern stream disturbance over the Central US (pictured to the left with the remnants of lee just to it's east over PA). The result will be the development of moderate to heavy rain and a low pressure system moving along a front near the area Monday Night into Tuesday. The forecast remains highly uncertain, though...so don't cancel any plans yet. Low confidence forecast to say the least.

Forecast model tracks for Katia (9/4/11)

Katia rapidly strengthening: Katia strengthened to a hurricane overnight and and is showing continued signs of organization, with maximum sustained winds now at 105 miles per hour. Lee remains a Tropical Storm over the Louisiana coast  as of the 5:00pm National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory. As far as impacts on our area (we already discussed Lee's remnants and potential for impacts), Katia still looks to recurve to our east over the open waters of the Atlantic. However, the storm is still several days away so we urge caution in the forecast track beyond around 3 days or so. The statistics, synoptics, and meteorology argue against any track that could impact our area, but it's important to remember how far away the storm is, and how much the pattern could change as it moves towards our area. We will, of course, keep you updated. 

Article written September 4th, 2011 at 5:32pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model's forecast high temps for Sunday

The warmer air which made it's home in our area much of this summer returned yesterday (Friday), and looks to stick around through at least early Monday. A mid and upper level ridge is leading the way in advecting this warm airmass into the area, which initially struggled to make it's move here at the tail end of last week. A back door cold front was to blame for that, and generally kept high temperatures in the upper 70's to near 80, but it's a distant memory at this point. Although temperatures were not overly hot yesterday, dew points rose dramatically compared to the past few days, even getting near 70 F by the afternoon. This made the airmass feel much warmer, muggier, and heavier...adding to the summer-like feel which we spoke about in the evening update on Saturday. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer on Sunday, and the sun will make it feel like temperatures are in the lower 90's at least.

Today (Sunday): Partly cloudy, with highs in the mid to upper 80's. A chance of showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Warm and humid air will make it feel warmer than the thermometer reads. . Winds southwest and then turning south, around 5 to 10 miles per hour. Short sleeved shirts will definitely suffice through the evening. The showers and storms are more likely to the west---and should be isolated.


Tonight (Sunday Night): Partly cloudy, with a chance of showers and storms early. Low temperatures only forecast to drop into the upper 60's to low 70's. Winds south at 10 to 15 miles per hour. Short sleeved shirts should do once again, but if you're in a typically cooler area, you may want to bring a long sleeved shirt to be safe.

NAM model showing 500mb energy (middle of the atmosphere)

Tropics and heavy rain to highlight next week: Unfortunately, the beautiful weather we've been experiencing over the past several days seems to finally be losing it's grip on the area, at least judging from most forecast models and the pattern evolution over the next several days.. Tropical Storm Lee is forecast to make landfall on the Gulf Coast and move inland---and then phase/interact with a northern stream disturbance over the Central US (pictured to the left with the remnants of lee just to it's east over PA). The result will be the development of moderate to heavy rain and a low pressure system moving along a front near the area Monday Night into Tuesday. The forecast remains highly uncertain, though...so don't cancel any plans yet. Low confidence forecast to say the least.

Regarding the actual systems themselves; Katia and Lee are both Tropical Storms as of the 11:00pm National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory. Katia's sustained winds are near 70 miles per hour, while Lee's are near 50. As far as impacts on our area (we already discussed Lee's remnants and potential for impacts), Katia still looks to recurve to our east over the open waters of the Atlantic. However, the storm is still several days away so we urge caution in the forecast track beyond around 3 days or so. The statistics, synoptics, and meteorology argue against any track that could impact our area, but it's important to remember how far away the storm is, and how much the pattern could change as it moves towards our area. We will, of course, keep you updated.

Article written September 4th, 2011 at 12:01am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.