NAM model showing rain to our west on Monday

We hope you've enjoyed the pleasant weather that has marked the last several days since the passage  of Irene last weekend. Although the air was initially cooler and crisp, a bit of a summer-like feel has worked it's way into the region the last few days as a ridge both in the middle of the atmosphere and at the surface allowed for a good amount of warming.  Temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday worked into the middle 80's, with dew points rising towards 70 degrees making the air feel moist and humid. Additionally, overnight low temperatures only dropped (and are forecast to drop Monday morning) to near 70 degrees. That being said, we can't complain as the sun has been shining for a good majority of the last week. That's all to change soon, as a frontal boundary is forecast to stall near the area and interact with both a disturbance near the Great Lakes and the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee. We have a whole ton of information below, so make sure to keep reading and stay informed!

Today (Labor Day): Labor day will be characterized by unsettled weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms early (in the wee hours of the morning) will give way to a break in precipitation during the late morning and afternoon hours, although clouds could stick around. High's will rise into the mid 80's during the afternoon. Then, as the front nears the area and begins to interact with energy in the middle of the atmosphere, rain is forecast to increase in coverage especially over western areas. The rain will be slower to arrive farther to the east, but showers and thunderstorms will still be around. In response, the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for western portions of the forecast area for the potential of heavy rain and isolated flooding.


Tonight (Monday Night): Cloudy, and rain and thunderstorms are still around. The amount of coverage will depend on the exact positioning of the front, which remains uncertain. That being said, we are certain enough regardless of the exact positioning of the heaviest and steadiest rain...to say that rain is likely throughout much of the area Monday Night. The Flood Watch previously mentioned remains in effect through Tuesday morning. Low temperatures dropping into the upper 60's. Sweatshirts and rain gear should be worn.
THE DETAILS...

Heavy rain positioning remains uncertain: As we mentioned above, the exact area that receives the heaviest rain remains somewhat up in the air. The pattern will be unstable as a front stalls near the area, but the exact positioning of the front will determine where the heaviest rain can track. The front will have extra juice from both a disturbance over the Great Lakes, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee moving northeast through the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic. For instance, the NAM model keeps the front just to the west of the area and the heavy rain remains over Eastern Pennsyvlania and Western New Jersey. Some other forecast models have the front nearer to the region, bringing moderate to heavy rain over the area through Tuesday.

NAM forecast total rain ending Wednesday

Obviously, we're concerned about the potential for heavy rains over isolated areas in this set up. Our area has been impacted by heavy rains over the last month (we set the all time wettest month record at NYC in August), and the last thing we need is more rain. But the truth is, at this time, that the forecast models are just too inconsistent for us to officially nail down where this front will be. Our best guess would be that the heaviest rain should be relegated to Eastern PA and Western NJ, with moderate rains over NYC, tapering to lesser rains farther to the east. This makes the most synoptic sense given the current placement of the front and a blend of the forecast models. Still, the uncertainty is troubling. We'll stick with you guys on both Facebook and Twitter, and obviously here as well, to keep you as updated as possible.

Article written September 5th, 2011 at 12:17am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

The low pressure system responsible for the prolific rainfall observed in the area on Sunday will still be meandering around the forecast area Monday, bringing with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms which could be widespread at times. The rainfall on Sunday was as historic as it was relentless, with Kennedy Airport in Queens observing a new all time record for daily rainfall (7.76 inches), breaking the old record set in 1983. Several reporting stations throughout the metro recorded rainfall totals in excess of 6 inches. Some personal weather stations in Long Island (Nassau County) recorded rainfall amounts over 10 inches by late Sunday evening, with the rain still continuing to fall at a moderate to heavy pace over much of Long Island, Southeast New York, and portions of Connecticut. The rain is forecast to continue on and off through Monday afternoon, although the more steady precipitation may actually be focused east of the city. Featured video: Video Forecast Discussion for Monday August 15th, 2011, from the forecasting team.

Forecast in Detail: The rain will continue to be a threat throughout Monday as the surface low pressure system passes east of the region. Although not as widespread or relentless as Sunday, the showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing moderate to occasionally heavy rain, which could cause rapid street flooding, especially to areas already flooded or moistened by the heavy rains on Sunday. By Monday Night, the precipitation should become much more spotty, with a few showers meandering around the area.

Tuesday is forecast to feature a welcomed return to dry conditions, with the sun finally returning to the forecast and high temperatures crawling back into the low 80's. Winds will be light and out of the west.  

A Look Ahead: The middle to end of the week looks to offer a return to more pleasant weather, with high temperatures averaging near normal on Wednesday and Thursday, and only a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. The next chance of precipitation looks to come on Friday with the passage of a cold front.

Article written August 15th, 2011 at 12:10am. . Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

A low pressure system developing near the area has become the focal point for very heavy rain, which continues to affect the area this Sunday morning. Through 800am, prolific rainfall amounts were already recorded throughout much of the forecast area. Kennedy Airport recorded 5.61 inches of rainfall, LaGuardia airport recorded 3.88 inches of rainfall, Newark airport recorded 3.27 inches of rainfall, and Central Park recorded 3.20 inches of rainfall. With the rain continuing over the next several hours, these rainfall totals could become quite prolific throughout the remainder of the day. Please remember that flooding is a serious severe weather event. The National Weather Service has issued Flash Flood Warnings for a vast majority of the forecast area including much of New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania. Featured video: Severe Weather Briefing from August 14th, 2011, issued by New York Metro Weather's forecasting team.


Forecast in Detail: The rain will continue through the remainder of today, without many serious breaks in the action. The low pressure system is forecast to consolidate off the coast, likely leading to a well developed area of moderate precipitation expanding over the area. While the area has not had the luxury of a normal precipitation summer (many areas below normal through today), these type of rain events are almost always a problem, especially as flooding potential develops as the rain continues for extended periods of time. Plus, the weekend timing is less than ideal.

Monday should feature, at least to start, more of the same although the showers could become a bit more spotty over Long Island. The rain could continue over New Jersey and New York through the mid to late afternoon. After that, model guidance begins to wrap up the event with precipitation ending from southwest to northeast.

A Look Ahead: The middle to end of the week looks to offer a return to more pleasant weather, with high temperatures averaging near normal on Tuesday and Wednesday, and only a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. The next chance of precipitation looks to come on Friday with the passage of a cold front.

Article written August 14th, 2011 at 11:10am. Updated at 1:53pm to include severe weather briefing video. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.