NAM Model showing a very strong area of low pressure off the New Jersey coast on Saturday (left), with significant frozen precipitation falling at the time (right).

A significant low pressure system is forecast to develop just off the East Coast on Saturday, and then strengthen as it moves north and eventually northeast. The combination of a cold airmass behind the storm, and extreme dynamics able to initiate dynamic cooling (heavy precipitation cooling the atmosphere) will set the stage for a dramatic transition from heavy rain to heavy snow in many areas on Saturday afternoon. Forecast models are still somewhat split on the exact developments of the transition and the exact timing of the temperature drop--but one thing is for sure, the potential exists for a significant snowstorm over the interior. Near the city, the rain should change to snow a bit later, but  few hours of heavy snow is still likely. The snow may have a tougher time sticking in the city on the warm streets and ground surfaces, but inland, the snow could accumulate to as much as 6 inches. Higher amounts are possible in the higher elevations of interior New Jersey in Southeast New York. Such snowfall amounts are historic for this time of year--and would set a new precedent for early-season or fall snow events in this area. Note: Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for portions of the area. Visit the Forecast Overview Page (click here) for more specific information. 

Although not impossible by any stretch, accumulating snow in non-elevated areas during the month of  October is nearly unheard of it in our forecast area. Very literally, the statistics are there to back it up. For instance, over all of the years which snowfall records have been recorded (a pretty long time), the maximum October snowfall at Newark, NJ is 0.3". That's less than an inch--the record snowfall at Newark, NJ for the month of October. The snow being forecast by most forecast models would likely shatter the October snowfall records throughout the metro area, which are generally near 1-2". The issue of accumulations and timing of the snow lies within the exact track of the storm. There are two distinct camps among the forecast models : one which is warmer and would bring a longer period of rain to the area, and one which is cooler and would result in more snow. We will have to carefully watch the temperatures throughout the day today to see which one may have the right idea.

Our latest Storm Total Snowfall Forecast Map (Issued 8:00pm October 28th, 2011)

The rain is expected to be ongoing by the morning on Saturday, and will continue through the afternoon. Then, as the surface low rapidly deepens offshore, the cold air will begin to work into the system. Rain is expected to change rapidly to snow over Southeast New York and Northwest/Western New Jersey. This transition will work south and east with time, moving through the suburbs and then eventually the city. The transition may halt near the city---as a result of the warm ocean waters and maritime air near the coast. From this point on, a few to several hours of heavy snow (depending on location) is likely. The interior may accumulate as much as 4-8 inches of snow, higher in spots. The immediate suburbs are likely to see 2-4 inches of snow, with some amounts slightly higher in the higher elevations. In the city, 1-3 inches of snow is a good forecast. If the warmer solutions verify, the lower end of those totals is likely. The warm ground will definitely play a role in the accumulations in the city and near the ocean.

For more information on the storm system, visit our Winter Storm Overview page. A new feature of New York Metro Weather, this page is only activated during potential snowfall or winter weather events. It provides an in depth look on all information regarding the winter storm. Also, you can view our detailed blog post from yesterday, which explains the ingredients and questions going into the storm system.

Article written by JH. Published October 29th, 2011 at 1:24am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM Model showing total accumulated rain amounts of near 2 inches in spots on Wednesday.

A significant disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere will strengthen further on Wednesday, as it moves from the Tennessee Valley towards the East Coast. This system will force the development of a strong area of low pressure at the surface, which will move northward from the Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley. Obviously this is well to the west of the area, and the low pressure is expected to stay there. However, this time, we're not out of the woods at all. In fact, we're expecting the threat of widespread showers and potentially heavy rains during the day today. The culprit will be a warm front which will extend east of the low pressure, coincidentally, directly over our area. This front will provide extra forcing/lift for precipitation to form and become heavy. In a moisture rich environment, and with a dynamic system in the atmosphere so nearby (including the presence of a developing low level jet), it isn't hard to fathom the potential for widespread showers as well as heavy rain for a period on Wednesday. The forecast models are (still) a bit inconsistent with this feature, but it appears at the very least likely that Wednesday will be marred by widespread showers and gloomy conditions. Where the heavy rain falls remains somewhat up in the air--but we will certainly be tracking it throughout the day today.

High temperatures in the middle 60's are forecast throughout the area, but south of the warm front (over Central NJ) temperatures may reach near 70 F as winds turn southerly and warm air is advected into the area. By overnight Wednesday into Thursday, a dry slot is expected to work into the area...ending the threat for showers and eventually allowing for clearing by Thursday morning.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Cloudy with a chance of showers early, then rain likely. The rain may be heavy at times. High near 65. East wind 10 miles per hour, gusting to 20 miles per hour at times. A dreary, gloomy day with the potential for heavy rain during the afternoon and early evening. Bring the rain gear!

Tonight: Cloudy with rain likely early, then a chance of showers. By dawn, clearing. Overnight low near 60. Southeast winds 15 miles per hour.

Article written by JH. Published October 19th, 2011 at 12:30am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM model showing heavy rain over our area Friday Night.

First of all, happy Autumn! Today is the first day of calendar Autumn. Unfortunately, beautiful autumn weather won't be able to ring in the season. A storm system in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere is approaching our area, and although it remains to our west today, it's interaction with tropical moisture will bring the potential for heavy rain on Friday. Rain is forecast to move from south to north from the Carolinas towards our area, along a warm front and in response to a developing low pressure system. Tropical moisture in place will allow for the rain to be heavy at times, and although the heaviest rain may fall over a relatively small area (where training occurs, or rain moving over the same area for an extended period of time), most of the area will recieve showers which will be steady and heavy at times during the afternoon. Clouds will be a sure bet and it will be hard to see sun today to say the very least. The heaviest rain may actually redevelop Friday night into Saturday as another low pressure system develops near our area. The storm system will remain a significant inhibitor to pleasant weather through the weekend and possibly even into the beginning of next week. Highs today will only reach the upper 60's to low 70's, but it will feel plenty humid with the high moisture content and southerly flow.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Friday): Cloudy, with rain likely. The rain could be heavy at times. Highs in the upper 60's to lower 70's. Bring an umbrella along. You may be warm in a sweatshirt.

Tonight: Cloudy, rain likely. Heavy at times once again. Low temperatures in the 60's, with very moist air still around. Again, bring the rain gear if you're going to be out and about.

AUTUMN EQUINOX IS TODAY...

Today is the Autumn Equinox, or one of the very rare days in each year where the sun rises directly in the east and sets directly in the west. More importantly, for those who like the warm weather, yesterday was the last day of summer. For those who are looking forward to the cooler weather, we're just getting started. Times, and seasons are changing. We're diving head first into a long 6 months of cooler and wintry weather. We hope you stick around to enjoy it with us.

Article written by John Homenuk. Published September 23rd, 2011 at 1:36am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

Radar image from wxunderground shows movement and intensity of precipitation over the last hour. Click to enlarge.

Periodic moderate to heavy rain has been the story of the week, and it continues early this morning as another widespread area of rain developed over the area. Showers and thunderstorms were reported around midnight, with widespread lightning and some local flash flooding. This heavy rain was in response to a weak warm front just to the south of the area. Isentropic lift (forcing to develop showers and thunderstorms) increased late Wednesday night, allowing the heavier rain to develop. The moderate to heavy rain is forecast to continue through Thursday morning. However, with time, this rain is expected to push north and west, and the rain should once again become scattered, with showers hanging around through afternoon. There is a chance that we may dry out by this afternoon, but at the present time forecast models remain inconsistent. Regardless, the few hours of dry conditions should be accompanied by some scattered showers Thursday evening. Luckily, Friday looks to feature improved conditions, and the possibility of some sunshine.

Current radar image from wxunderground shows  themovement and intensity of precipitation over the last hour. Click to enlarge.

Heavy rain, spreading throughout the entire area, is the story for the remainder of the evening without any doubt. A frontal boundary stalled near the area, and the interactions between the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee and a disturbance near the Great Lakes will prove to be the focal points for the heavy rain over the next several hours. Although the rain is forecast to lift north and west of the area with time, the next few hours could be an all out deluge as the rain has already been in progress for several hours. The National Weather Service continues Flood Warnings for many parts of the forecast area through Wednesday morning. The rain is heaviest over the city and just to the west of there over Central and Northern New Jersey. The areas that seem to be escaping the heaviest rain are the New Jersey shore and the East end of Long Island. Over the next several hours, expected continued poor conditions over those areas--and the rain eventually beginning to push north and west towards Northwest New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania. Rain amounts could easily exceed 2 to 3 inches in much of the area west of New York City. Temperatures will run in the lower 60's through the evening, and east winds will make it feel raw outside.

The last few days have offered very little hope for those wishing to see the warm summer sun, but the good news is that the stretch of poor weather is nearly over. The low pressure system responsible for the relentless rain and overcast skies is slowly shifting eastward away from the area, and will begin to lose it's grip by Tuesday. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms may still develop during the afternoon hours, but the rain will not be as widespread or steady--and most importantly, won't be around for the entire day. The system is then forecast to shift east by Tuesday night--leaving our area with mostly clear skies, and a pleasant forecast for the end of the week. Temperatures should rebound towards normal by Wednesday and Thursday. Featured video: Video forecast discussion for August 16th, 2011, detailing the day in weather and the specific threats for potential thunderstorms and heavy rain. Courtesy of the forecasting team.

Forecast in Detail: Tuesday morning will likely offer a chance of some breaks in the clouds and the potential for some sun. The sun will be in and out, though, and not consistently bright. By afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop bringing the chance for heavy rain, lightning, and thunder. The evening is expected to bring gradual clearing, with the storm system shifting east. High temperatures will be warmer than the past few days, reaching towards 80 degrees in the afternoon. We'll drop into the 60's again overnight into Tuesday morning, though, as a slightly cooler and noticeably calmer airmass settles in.

A Look Ahead: The middle to end of the week looks to offer a return to more pleasant weather, with high temperatures averaging near normal on Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance of rain will rear it's head on Thursday afternoon and Friday, when a frontal boundary near the region could very well spark off showers and thunderstorms. The storms could be more widespread on Friday, offering a chance for more rainfall.

Article written August 16th, 2011 at 12:30am. . Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

The low pressure system responsible for the prolific rainfall observed in the area on Sunday will still be meandering around the forecast area Monday, bringing with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms which could be widespread at times. The rainfall on Sunday was as historic as it was relentless, with Kennedy Airport in Queens observing a new all time record for daily rainfall (7.76 inches), breaking the old record set in 1983. Several reporting stations throughout the metro recorded rainfall totals in excess of 6 inches. Some personal weather stations in Long Island (Nassau County) recorded rainfall amounts over 10 inches by late Sunday evening, with the rain still continuing to fall at a moderate to heavy pace over much of Long Island, Southeast New York, and portions of Connecticut. The rain is forecast to continue on and off through Monday afternoon, although the more steady precipitation may actually be focused east of the city. Featured video: Video Forecast Discussion for Monday August 15th, 2011, from the forecasting team.

Forecast in Detail: The rain will continue to be a threat throughout Monday as the surface low pressure system passes east of the region. Although not as widespread or relentless as Sunday, the showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing moderate to occasionally heavy rain, which could cause rapid street flooding, especially to areas already flooded or moistened by the heavy rains on Sunday. By Monday Night, the precipitation should become much more spotty, with a few showers meandering around the area.

Tuesday is forecast to feature a welcomed return to dry conditions, with the sun finally returning to the forecast and high temperatures crawling back into the low 80's. Winds will be light and out of the west.  

A Look Ahead: The middle to end of the week looks to offer a return to more pleasant weather, with high temperatures averaging near normal on Wednesday and Thursday, and only a slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. The next chance of precipitation looks to come on Friday with the passage of a cold front.

Article written August 15th, 2011 at 12:10am. . Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.