Total Precipitation over the last two days in NY State

Although the rain has ended across our area, thousands are still struggling over Pennsylvania and  New York State as massive floods have inundated the states. Nearly 100,000 people have been ordered to evacuate amidst a three day period of nearly non-stop heavy rain in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee. The Susquehanna River is one of the main culprits in the severe flooding which is still occurring. The heavy rain has put the river well over flood stage, and the water continues to rise. The latest update from The US Geological Survey and the National Weather Service has the river at 25.06 feet. The flood stage for the river is 17.0 feet. The river is forecast to reach a maximum height of 27 feet within the next two days. For now, it appears the torrential rain has ended, but the flooding will continue. The floods extend northward into New York State, where areas such as Binghamton have been dramatically flooded. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton set a new height record, reaching 25.71 feet. The old record was 25.0 feet.

THE REASON FOR THE RECORDS...

Susquehanna  River heights at Binghampton (9/8/11)

The culprits behind the extreme flooding along a corridor near the Susquehanna River this week were multi-faceted. First, the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee came ashore last weekend, and moved northward into the Mid-Atlantic. Second, a disturbance over the Great Lakes slowed down the remnants and interacted with them, forcing the development of an upper level "cutoff" low. Essentially, a disturbance in the atmosphere stalled and became it's own entity over the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Moisture from the Atlantic Ocean was streaming in from as far south as Florida and the Southwest Atlantic Ocean along a stalled frontal boundary which was situated near the Susquehanna River. The result was the development of extremely heavy "training" (or near constant over the same areas) rainfall in these areas, which continued for nearly three days.

CAN IT GET ANY WORSE?

Over the next few days, although the rain will taper off as the disturbance weakens and then shifts east, the rivers and creeks which have been affected will likely still be rising, at least initially. The flooding will continue over the areas affected, so the mandatory evacuations will remain in effect. If you live in any of those areas, please wait to return to your homes safely. Iif you have any reports, pictures, videos, or observations to send us, don't hesitate. We can use each and every one of them.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 8th, 2011 at 11:35pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week and weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Current radar image from wxunderground shows  themovement and intensity of precipitation over the last hour. Click to enlarge.

Heavy rain, spreading throughout the entire area, is the story for the remainder of the evening without any doubt. A frontal boundary stalled near the area, and the interactions between the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee and a disturbance near the Great Lakes will prove to be the focal points for the heavy rain over the next several hours. Although the rain is forecast to lift north and west of the area with time, the next few hours could be an all out deluge as the rain has already been in progress for several hours. The National Weather Service continues Flood Warnings for many parts of the forecast area through Wednesday morning. The rain is heaviest over the city and just to the west of there over Central and Northern New Jersey. The areas that seem to be escaping the heaviest rain are the New Jersey shore and the East end of Long Island. Over the next several hours, expected continued poor conditions over those areas--and the rain eventually beginning to push north and west towards Northwest New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania. Rain amounts could easily exceed 2 to 3 inches in much of the area west of New York City. Temperatures will run in the lower 60's through the evening, and east winds will make it feel raw outside.