Current radar image from wxunderground shows  themovement and intensity of precipitation over the last hour. Click to enlarge.

Heavy rain, spreading throughout the entire area, is the story for the remainder of the evening without any doubt. A frontal boundary stalled near the area, and the interactions between the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee and a disturbance near the Great Lakes will prove to be the focal points for the heavy rain over the next several hours. Although the rain is forecast to lift north and west of the area with time, the next few hours could be an all out deluge as the rain has already been in progress for several hours. The National Weather Service continues Flood Warnings for many parts of the forecast area through Wednesday morning. The rain is heaviest over the city and just to the west of there over Central and Northern New Jersey. The areas that seem to be escaping the heaviest rain are the New Jersey shore and the East end of Long Island. Over the next several hours, expected continued poor conditions over those areas--and the rain eventually beginning to push north and west towards Northwest New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Northeast Pennsylvania. Rain amounts could easily exceed 2 to 3 inches in much of the area west of New York City. Temperatures will run in the lower 60's through the evening, and east winds will make it feel raw outside.

Current radar image from wxunderground shows  themovement and intensity of precipitation over the last hour. Click to enlarge.

The first full week of September, and the first full week of meteorological autumn, looks to be kicked off by a dreary day today. Tuesday will feature a very good chance of clouds, as well as frequent chances for moderate to heavy rain, and generally elusive sunshine. This could theoretically continue through Wednesday and maybe even Thursday as an upper level disturbance hangs around the area. Back to today, a frontal boundary near the area will be the cause for considerable cloudiness and the chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day. The National Weather Service has issued Flash Flood Watches and Flash Flood Warnings for much of the area including New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, and Southeast New York. Although the brunt of the very heavy rain may stay off to the west of the metro area, the daytime high temperatures will be held down by the aforementioned clouds and rainfall, with highs only forecast to reach into the middle to upper 60's. The winds out of the east will make it feel quite raw outdoors compared to the past few days of summer-like weather.

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THE FORECAST...


Today (Tuesday): Cloudy, with rain likely throughout the day. The rain may not be continuous, but will be off and on for the duration of the day. High temperatures will only reach towards the upper 60's. Long sleeved shirts, jeans, sweatshirts, rain gear. Pick your poison, they'll all work out fine during the day today.

Tonight (Tuesday Night): Not much better. Still cloudy, still a good chance of rain especially in the first half of the overnight period. Low temperatures dropping towards 60 degrees overnight. Again, long sleeves, jeans, sweatshirts should be the attire of choice if you're going to be outdoors. Oh, and of course, an umbrella.

A look ahead: The rain should become lighter and less expansive in coverage by Wednesday and Thursday, but the pattern will remain unsettled with showers still around through the middle of the week at least. Temperatures will likely be running a bit below seasonal averages.

TROPICAL UPDATE...

National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Katia issued at 11:00pm 9/5/2011

Hurricane Katia has strengthened into a Major Category 4 Hurricane as of the latest 11:00pm National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory from last night. Katia has sustained winds of 135 miles per hour and is moving to the north at 10 miles per hour. Some further intensification is possible before she begins her northward and eventually northeastward turn away from the coast. Katia is still expected to remain a few hundred miles out to sea, but her impacts may be felt at the area beaches with some higher surf, and the potential for rip tides and light beach erosion. Those impacts would be felt Thursday through Friday when the storm makes her closest pass to the area. We'll keep you updated on her movement and intensity as she continues her movement across the Atlantic ocean during the early to middle part of this week. 


Article written September 6th, 2011 at 12:04am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.