NAM models forecast highs for Friday

The disturbance which plagued our areas weather over the past several days is slowly weakening over the Tennessee Valley this morning, but more importantly is slowly moving west (albeit temporarily). With Katia out to sea and moving to the northeast, our area will be placed in between disturbances and in the middle of relatively fair weather. Although we may see some clouds early on, today is forecast to offer the potential for some good periods of sun, which will almost certainly be welcomed by all.  It will be a major change compared to the last several days, which have offered nothing but overcast skies, dreary and damp conditions, and moderate to heavy rainfall. In fact, our area has received over 25 inches of rain in the last month (a record). Luckily, high temperatures on Friday are forecast to reach into the lower 80's, which will make it seem much warmer outdoors. Finally, you can bring back the short sleeves and shorts. There is a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms by afternoon, but they won't be widespread or long lived.


Today (Friday): Partly to mostly cloudy early, followed by some increase in sun by afternoon. High temperatures will reach towards or slightly above 80 degrees. Will feel much warmer compared to the last several days. Chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but nothing too widespread. You can ditch the long sleeves and sweatshirts today for sure. Winds north at 3 to 5 miles per hour.

Tonight (Friday Night): Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around in the first half of the evening, followed by continued improved conditions (compared to this week). Low temperatures only falling into the upper 60's. Winds turning west at 5 to 10 miles per hour.


Weekend Forecast: Saturday and Sunday both look relatively seasonable, but will offer a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm as well. Sunday looks to be the day where showers and storms could be slightly more noticeable and numerous, but again..no steady or continuous rain. Temperatures near average.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 9th, 2011 at 12:01am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week and weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Total Precipitation over the last two days in NY State

Although the rain has ended across our area, thousands are still struggling over Pennsylvania and  New York State as massive floods have inundated the states. Nearly 100,000 people have been ordered to evacuate amidst a three day period of nearly non-stop heavy rain in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee. The Susquehanna River is one of the main culprits in the severe flooding which is still occurring. The heavy rain has put the river well over flood stage, and the water continues to rise. The latest update from The US Geological Survey and the National Weather Service has the river at 25.06 feet. The flood stage for the river is 17.0 feet. The river is forecast to reach a maximum height of 27 feet within the next two days. For now, it appears the torrential rain has ended, but the flooding will continue. The floods extend northward into New York State, where areas such as Binghamton have been dramatically flooded. The Susquehanna River at Binghamton set a new height record, reaching 25.71 feet. The old record was 25.0 feet.

THE REASON FOR THE RECORDS...

Susquehanna  River heights at Binghampton (9/8/11)

The culprits behind the extreme flooding along a corridor near the Susquehanna River this week were multi-faceted. First, the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee came ashore last weekend, and moved northward into the Mid-Atlantic. Second, a disturbance over the Great Lakes slowed down the remnants and interacted with them, forcing the development of an upper level "cutoff" low. Essentially, a disturbance in the atmosphere stalled and became it's own entity over the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Moisture from the Atlantic Ocean was streaming in from as far south as Florida and the Southwest Atlantic Ocean along a stalled frontal boundary which was situated near the Susquehanna River. The result was the development of extremely heavy "training" (or near constant over the same areas) rainfall in these areas, which continued for nearly three days.

CAN IT GET ANY WORSE?

Over the next few days, although the rain will taper off as the disturbance weakens and then shifts east, the rivers and creeks which have been affected will likely still be rising, at least initially. The flooding will continue over the areas affected, so the mandatory evacuations will remain in effect. If you live in any of those areas, please wait to return to your homes safely. Iif you have any reports, pictures, videos, or observations to send us, don't hesitate. We can use each and every one of them.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 8th, 2011 at 11:35pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week and weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NHC's information on Maria from 11:00pm 9/8/11

Tropical Storms Nate and Maria continue to churn in the Gulf of Mexico and South-Central Atlantic ocean respectively, but their current states could not be more different. Nate has strengthened over the last several hours, and the latest advisory has Nate just shy of hurricane strength. Sustained winds are near 70 miles per hour, and he is stationary. Satellite appearance has improved over the last several hours as well. Luckily, Nate is forecast to track north and then quickly west towards the Mexico coast, and is not expected to make a landfall on the United States. However, forecast models remain highly inconsistent with Nate's track, and things could still change. Residents along the South-Texas coast should remain vigilant and stay tuned for further updates, as Nate could strengthen into a hurricane very shortly. The main story, however, for our area will be Maria and her eventual track through the Atlantic.

Maria, in a much different matter than Nate, has weakened rather dramatically and is forecast to weaken even further. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has Maria weakening to a depression at some point today as she continues to move northwestward. Eventually, she is forecast to restrengthen into a Tropical Storm. However, the weakening creates problems in the track forecast. Tropical systems that weaken can often take erratic tracks, and the forecast models can be extremely inconsistent and subject to dramatic error. This leaves Maria with a highly uncertain future. What we do know is that forecast models, currently, are attempting to take her on a northwest heading, and the eventually begin curving her to the northwest and then north in the Atlantic Ocean. How far west she tracks remains nearly impossible to determine at this point. We will be sure to keep you updated on her over the next several days.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 8th, 2011 at 11:08pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week and weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.