NHC's information on Maria from 11:00pm 9/8/11

Tropical Storms Nate and Maria continue to churn in the Gulf of Mexico and South-Central Atlantic ocean respectively, but their current states could not be more different. Nate has strengthened over the last several hours, and the latest advisory has Nate just shy of hurricane strength. Sustained winds are near 70 miles per hour, and he is stationary. Satellite appearance has improved over the last several hours as well. Luckily, Nate is forecast to track north and then quickly west towards the Mexico coast, and is not expected to make a landfall on the United States. However, forecast models remain highly inconsistent with Nate's track, and things could still change. Residents along the South-Texas coast should remain vigilant and stay tuned for further updates, as Nate could strengthen into a hurricane very shortly. The main story, however, for our area will be Maria and her eventual track through the Atlantic.

Maria, in a much different matter than Nate, has weakened rather dramatically and is forecast to weaken even further. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has Maria weakening to a depression at some point today as she continues to move northwestward. Eventually, she is forecast to restrengthen into a Tropical Storm. However, the weakening creates problems in the track forecast. Tropical systems that weaken can often take erratic tracks, and the forecast models can be extremely inconsistent and subject to dramatic error. This leaves Maria with a highly uncertain future. What we do know is that forecast models, currently, are attempting to take her on a northwest heading, and the eventually begin curving her to the northwest and then north in the Atlantic Ocean. How far west she tracks remains nearly impossible to determine at this point. We will be sure to keep you updated on her over the next several days.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 8th, 2011 at 11:08pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week and weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.