NAM showing a backdoor cold front later Saturday evening. Note the onshore flow depicted by the model.

The pleasant and refreshing weather that Friday brought into the area will, unfortunately, be somewhat short lived this weekend. The culprit this time won't be a large disturbance in the atmosphere, instead it will be a small surface front. A back door cold front (front that moves east to west as opposed to the typical west to east direction) is expected to make an un-welcomed visit into the area by Saturday Night into Sunday, and will bring with it the return of an onshore flow (winds off the ocean, see the graphic) and showery weather. Although the rain will not be steady or continuous like it was earlier this week, by late Saturday clouds will be on the increase and showers could become scattered throughout the area. The first half of the day, though, should be relatively dry. Saturday Night will feature a continued chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two--and the forecast looks similar for Sunday. Essentially, early Saturday would be your best bet to enjoy the remainder of the weekend if you're looking for a rain-free forecast. Temperatures should still get towards 80 early Saturday, but we can't say the same for Sunday, when we look like we'll once again have trouble getting towards the mid 70's.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Saturday): Partly cloudy early...but increasing clouds throughout the day, which will lower and thicken at times. A chance of showers will become part of the forecast, especially after noon. High temperatures will still reach near 80, though, so don't pull out the sweatshirts and long pants just yet.

Tonight (Saturday Night): Mostly cloudy and again a chance of showers in the forecast. Low temperatures will drop into the middle 60's throughout the area, and the winds will have turned east off the ocean. Definitely bring a sweatshirt if you're going to be near the area beaches or water. Inland, you may be okay with a short sleeved shirt (depending on your tolerance).

TROPICAL UPDATE...

Nothing too drastic as far as changes on the tropical front this morning. Nate and Maria both remain tropical storms, and their paths similar to the forecast from yesterday. Nate has sustained winds near 50 miles per hour (down since yesterday), and Maria has sustained winds near 45 miles per hour (consistent since yesterday). Maria is forecast to conitnue northwest, and then recurve to the north and northeast. Currently, forecast model tracks take her along a very similar path as Hurricane Katia, which recently tracked between the US East Coast and Bermuda. The hurricane, currently, isn't expected to be a threat to the US Mainland, but we will continue to watch her carefully. Nate is forecast to continue westward the next two days or so, before making landfall on the Mexican coast as a tropical storm. Otherwise, no additional tropical activity is forecast. We will certainly be watching carefully, and we'll relay any information we get to you as soon as we get it.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 10th, 2011 at 3:08am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NHC's information on Maria from 11:00pm 9/8/11

Tropical Storms Nate and Maria continue to churn in the Gulf of Mexico and South-Central Atlantic ocean respectively, but their current states could not be more different. Nate has strengthened over the last several hours, and the latest advisory has Nate just shy of hurricane strength. Sustained winds are near 70 miles per hour, and he is stationary. Satellite appearance has improved over the last several hours as well. Luckily, Nate is forecast to track north and then quickly west towards the Mexico coast, and is not expected to make a landfall on the United States. However, forecast models remain highly inconsistent with Nate's track, and things could still change. Residents along the South-Texas coast should remain vigilant and stay tuned for further updates, as Nate could strengthen into a hurricane very shortly. The main story, however, for our area will be Maria and her eventual track through the Atlantic.

Maria, in a much different matter than Nate, has weakened rather dramatically and is forecast to weaken even further. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has Maria weakening to a depression at some point today as she continues to move northwestward. Eventually, she is forecast to restrengthen into a Tropical Storm. However, the weakening creates problems in the track forecast. Tropical systems that weaken can often take erratic tracks, and the forecast models can be extremely inconsistent and subject to dramatic error. This leaves Maria with a highly uncertain future. What we do know is that forecast models, currently, are attempting to take her on a northwest heading, and the eventually begin curving her to the northwest and then north in the Atlantic Ocean. How far west she tracks remains nearly impossible to determine at this point. We will be sure to keep you updated on her over the next several days.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 8th, 2011 at 11:08pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week and weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Maria, issued 9/7/2011 11pm.

Hurricane Katia was a major story over the last week as she churned in the South-Central Atlantic Ocean. However, now that she is recurving to the north and northeast, the main story will become the two new named storms, Tropical Storm Maria and Tropical Storm Nate, in the Southern Atlantic and Southern Gulf respectively. Maria has sustained winds near 50 miles per hour, and Nate with winds near 45 miles per hour, at the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) update from 11:00pm (September 7th). Tropical Storm Nate is forecast to loop back to the northwest in the Gulf of Mexico, and then strengthen as he heads westward towards the Mexico coast. At the time, Nate is not forecast to make landfall on United States landfall, and certainly will not affect our area as he moves westward in the Gulf of Mexico. 


Maria will certainly be the bigger topic of conversation in our area, as she continues on a northwest heading from the south-central Atlantic towards the Carribean. She is currently forecast to pass north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic this weekend. Although she is beginning farther south than Katia, early indications from forecast models are that Maria may take a similar path between the East Coast of the US and Bermuda, affecting neither. That being said, the system is still very far from land and several days away from her approach towards the United States. Much can change over that time span which could affect her ultimate path. We will certainly be keeping a close eye on her in the meantime.


Stick with us over the next several days, as we have introduced a new Tropical blog post which will be updated at the very least twice a day. We'll be sure to link the main blog post forecast to this post as well. 


Article written by John Homenuk,  September 8th, 2011 at 12:08am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Radar image from wxunderground shows movement and intensity of precipitation over the last hour. Click to enlarge.

Rain continued to fall throughout much of the area today, and although it was not as steady or continuous as it  was on Tuesday it was enough to keep the day dreary and damp. High temperatures throughout the area only reached into the upper 60's to near 70 (67 at Central Park, 68 at LaGuardia, 71 at Newark and JFK), and winds remained stiff and out of the east, off the ocean. The maritime air kept dew points relatively high, and the atmosphere remains very moist. In fact, PW (precipitatble water) values are still near 2.0 which is fairly anomalous for our area this time of year. Over the next several hours, into the evening and overnight, moderate to heavy showers are expected to continue off and on. Forecast models are showing the potential for some steadier heavy rain over New Jersey, but remain highly inconsistent in regards to it's exact placement. With that said, it appears that regardless of where the heaviest rain falls, the showers will be relatively widespread and capable of producing moderate to heavy rain at any time. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60's overnight tonight, and the east wind will continue, making it another damp and dreary night this week.

THE FORECAST...


Through Tonight (Wednesday Night): Cloudy with showers likely throughout the evening. The rain could be heavy at times. East winds around 10 miles per hour and temperatures in the 60's will keep a raw feeling in the air. Bring a long sleeved shirt, jeans, or a sweatshirt and rain gear.


Thursday: Cloudy with rain likely, especially before 2pm. The rain may be heavy at times. The day will begin similarly to the last few: cloudy, rainy, and relatively cool outdoors. Bring rain gear and warm clothing. By late afternoon, we could see a decrease in shower activity and a bit of a warming trend in temperatures. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday, reaching into the mid 70's.


TROPICAL UPDATE...

Forecast model tracks for Tropical Storm Maria (9/7/11)

Tropical Storm's Maria and Nate officially formed today in the Central Atlantic and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico, respectively. Maria has sustained winds near 50 miles per hour, and Nate with winds near 45 miles per hour, at the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) update from 8:00pm. Maria will certainly be the bigger topic of conversation in our area, as she continues on a northwest heading from the south-central Atlantic towards the Carribean. She is currently forecast to pass north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic this weekend. Although she is beginning farther south than Katia, early indications from forecast models are that Maria may take a similar path between the East Coast of the US and Bermuda, affecting neither. That being said, the system is still very far from land and several days away from her approach towards the United States. Much can change over that time span which could affect her ultimate path. We will certainly be keeping a close eye on her in the meantime.

Article written by John Homenuk,  September 7th, 2011 at 8:20pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.