Visible satellite from Saturday afternoon 10/29 showing the massive winter-like storm system on the East Coast

As long as you didn't sleep through the entire day on Saturday, you can say that you experienced a piece of meteorological history in the New York Metro area. No, there weren't record snowfall amounts as far as winter-time snowfall records. However, it was easy to mistake today for a mid-winter's day, and that's where the historical aspect of the storm system comes into play. Prior to Saturdays major snowfall event, all of the major reporting station in the New  York City area had October snowfall records under 1 inch. That's right, in all of recorded snowfall history...none of the major reporting stations (Newark, LaGuardia, Kennedy, Central Park) had experienced a snowfall over 1 inch in  October. This all changed on Saturday as all of the major reporting stations broke their previous records. Newark recorded 4.6 inches of snow, LaGuardia 1.5 inches, Kennedy 1.2 inches, and Central Park 1.3 inches. Incredible totals given the time of year. Interior areas cashed in even more as the elevation helped keep them cooler: Areas of Northwest New Jersey, Southeast New York, and Southwest Connecticut recorded over 15 inches of snow (some near 20 inches!). Winds and the heaviness of the snow on still leaved trees resulted in extremely widespread tree damage--and power outages. Unprecedented, unheard of, and historical. All words that can be used to define the events which transpired on Saturday.

Sunday should be much better without a doubt. The storm will shift northeast, away from the area, and high pressure will build back in. High temperatures will be quite low, thanks to the cold airmass and the snow pack, but should still be able to reach into the mid 40's in the city. Farther inland, highs may struggle to get out of the lower 40's and may stay in the 30's in some elevated areas. Essentially, despite the fact that the snow will have stopped falling and the sun will be shining, it will feel more like December than late October. Low temperatures Sunday night will be cold once again--dropping below freezing by a good bit inland , into the 20's. Even in the city, with favorable radiational cooling conditions, low temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 30's.



Today (Sunday): Mostly sunny, a bit breezy early. High's near 44 in the city, cooler inland. Northwest winds 10 to 15 miles per hour. Going to feel cooler than usual with the snowpack.

Tonight: Mostly clear, low near 33 in the city. Possibly more than 10 degrees cooler inland, in the low 20's. Likely the coldest night of the season to date, especially inland. The snow pack and ideal radiational cooling conditions will help temperatures drop rapidly. Winds out of the northwest at 5 miles per hour.

Article written by JH. Published October 30th, 2011 at 12:48am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM Model showing a mid- level dry slot over the area today (Thursday). Brown colors represent dry air, greener colors represent moist air.

The powerful and rather expansive storm system which provided our area with moderate amounts of rain and some gusty winds on Wednesday continues to churn over the Northeast United States. However, it's begun it's trek away from the area and will continue to move  northward into Southeastern and eventually East-Central Canada on Thursday. Although our area remains underneath a large disturbance in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, a dry slot (or area with significantly less moisture) will save our area from more rain on Thursday. Early in the morning, the potential for showers will exist as the system begins to shift north. With time, clearing skies are expected and by afternoon the sun will likely be shining. Temperatures will even be able to rebound, with the daytime heating of the sun, into the middle to upper 60's. With the aforementioned mid-level system still present, winds could be a bit gusty in the afternoon, but nothing overly dramatic (or similar to what we experienced this weekend). Temperatures are expected to drop towards 50 degrees on Thursday Night under partly cloudy skies.

Looking ahead to the weekend? We have nothing but smooth sailing to report. The only potential blemish would be the chance for some widely isolated showers on Saturday afternoon. Overall, it looks like we're in for a great weekend...with plenty of sun and high temperatures in the low 60's.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): A chance of showers early, then clearing. Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Southwest winds could get a bit gusty, but generally 10-15 miles per hour.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low near 50. Southwest winds still breezy at 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Article written by JH. Published October 20th, 2011 at 12:56am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming end of the week and weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  

NAM model showing high pressure in control later this week.

The upper level low is finally on it's way out. No, seriously, this time it's actually beginning to shift away from the area. It's shifting east/northeast in a weakness in the atmospheric pattern, which up until this point has acted as a "block", and allowed for the system to spin stagnant over the Central and Eastern US over the past two weeks. Today, the system is shifting east and will only scrape our area with the potential for some showers and clouds. Definitely not the most pleasant day, but temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than they were on Monday. Additionally, most of the hope lies in the weather which is in the future--as the middle and end of the week look to feature some of the most pleasant conditions we've seen since two weeks ago. We have to get through today first, though, and the story will be much of the same. High temperatures in the lower to middle 60's, with damp winds and a chance of showers. Skies will be partly cloudy at times, but will cloud up rapidly during the afternoon in the presence of scattered showers.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Tuesday): Partly to mostly cloudy, high temperatures in the lower to middle 60's. Chance of showers 30%. Northwest winds around 10 miles per hour. Still feeling cool and damp--long sleeves a good idea. May want to bring an umbrella along as scattered showers are expected this afternoon.

Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers. Temperatures dropping once again into the lower to middle 50's in the city, and 40's inland. Bring a jacket or sweatshirt for sure. Chance of precipitation is 30% before midnight, gradually decreasing thereafter.

Article written by JH. Published October 4th, 2011 at 1:09am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

Radar image from wunderground shows movement & intensity of precipitation over the past hour.

Although temperatures and humidity will make it feel warm (in a continuing trend over the past several days), Wednesday should be characterized by the presence of increased chances of showers. That being said, what once looked like the potential for heavy rain throughout portions of the day has turned into isolated showers, a certain improvement in the forecast. The key, is that forecast models are now weaker with a developing mid level disturbance passing the area this afternoon. The main large storm remains back to our west--and the disturbance today was forecast to be strong enough to touch of heavy rain. However, forecast models have since backed off, and it looks like the day should be generally salvaged. High temperatures in the mid 70's look like a sure bet--a few degrees cooler than the first two days of the week. Still, the presence of showers will likely have Wednesday remembered as a more damp and dreary day than the last two, even with the potential for dry conditions during the afternoon.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers. High temperatures in the middle 70's over Southern New Jersey and the NYC Metro, and lower 70's elsewhere. East winds and dew points in the 60's will lead to a much more damp day.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a 50% chance of showers. Low temperatures in the middle 60's. Continued east winds off the water--damp conditions continue.

LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL...

Unsettled weather has, generally (sans the past two days), plagued our area over the past week or more. The threat of unsettled weather could continue through Thursday as the main atmospheric disturbance nears. That said, most forecast models have a cold front clearing the area by Friday, which should offer clearing skies for Game 1 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium. There is a chance of a scattered shower or thunderstorm as the disturbance begins to exit the area (won't quite be gone by Friday). We'll have a full forecast for the game beginning later tonight, so stay tuned! 


Article written by JH. Published September 28th, 2011 at 1:18am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM model forecast lows tonight

A frontal boundary near the area today provided a cloudy, dreary, and showery scene throughout much of the morning and afternoon. Showers developed late this morning to our west, and moved eastward over our area. Although not steady, heavy, or persistent, they were enough to provide a light measurable rainfall to most of the area. Streets were wet throughout much of the afternoon. However, there have been improvements this afternoon and evening as the front shifts east. Clearing skies and breaks in the clouds are spreading throughout the area and should continue to do so through tonight. We have a weak area of higher pressure to thank, and through the evening it appears that we will be able to avoid any additional showery activity. The same will not be true for the rest of the week, though, so we encourage you to enjoy it while you can! Temperatures tonight are falling into the upper 50's to low 60's, not as cool as the past several nights.

THE FORECAST...

Through Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low near 60 in the city. Lows in the 50's inland and nearer to the shore. Winds south at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Long sleeves most likely a good decision, but you could get away with shorts if you're in a warmer area.

Wednesday: Warmer, and partly cloudy early, then becoming mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. High near 78. South winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Short sleeves are a good idea, for the first time in a while. It'll feel warmer than the past several days.

SUMMER 2011 RECAP & MORE...

You can view our Summer 2011 | By the numbers recap, and also take a look at our post detailing the near 10 year low in sea ice extent this past week. Both posts are featured links at the top of the blog. We appreciate your comments and discussion, and look forward to interacting with you.


Article written by John Homenuk. Published September 20th, 2011 at 7:02pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for current work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. 

NAM models forecast highs for Friday

The disturbance which plagued our areas weather over the past several days is slowly weakening over the Tennessee Valley this morning, but more importantly is slowly moving west (albeit temporarily). With Katia out to sea and moving to the northeast, our area will be placed in between disturbances and in the middle of relatively fair weather. Although we may see some clouds early on, today is forecast to offer the potential for some good periods of sun, which will almost certainly be welcomed by all.  It will be a major change compared to the last several days, which have offered nothing but overcast skies, dreary and damp conditions, and moderate to heavy rainfall. In fact, our area has received over 25 inches of rain in the last month (a record). Luckily, high temperatures on Friday are forecast to reach into the lower 80's, which will make it seem much warmer outdoors. Finally, you can bring back the short sleeves and shorts. There is a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms by afternoon, but they won't be widespread or long lived.


Today (Friday): Partly to mostly cloudy early, followed by some increase in sun by afternoon. High temperatures will reach towards or slightly above 80 degrees. Will feel much warmer compared to the last several days. Chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but nothing too widespread. You can ditch the long sleeves and sweatshirts today for sure. Winds north at 3 to 5 miles per hour.

Tonight (Friday Night): Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around in the first half of the evening, followed by continued improved conditions (compared to this week). Low temperatures only falling into the upper 60's. Winds turning west at 5 to 10 miles per hour.


Weekend Forecast: Saturday and Sunday both look relatively seasonable, but will offer a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm as well. Sunday looks to be the day where showers and storms could be slightly more noticeable and numerous, but again..no steady or continuous rain. Temperatures near average.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 9th, 2011 at 12:01am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week and weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

NAM model's forecast low temperatures tonight.

After several days of dreary, raw, and rainy conditions, the forecast is finally beginning to look more favorable as we begin to approach the end of the week and look ahead to the weekend. The heaviest rain has shifted well to our west and southwest this afternoon and early this evening, and is forecast to remain there through tonight. In fact, the disturbance over the Tennessee Valley and the frontal boundary near our area have weakened, likely suggesting that the heavy rain is over. There is still a chance of a few showers, but in all likelihood we're looking at improving conditions overnight tonight into Friday. Clouds will be around for the first half of the overnight, but by Friday it appears we're going to break into sunshine for the first time in several days. Tonight, however, will remain a bit unpleasant with a humid airmass still in place and temperatures dropping into the upper 60's to near 70, and a chance of isolated showers. However, it's a good night when you compare it to the last few, which featured heavy rain and raw conditions.

THE FORECAST...

Through Tonight (Thursday Night): Cloudy early, with a chance of spotty shower included in the forecast. Overall, not too bad compared to the last several nights. The clouds could break towards midnight. Temperatures dropping into the mid 60's, and the east winds will continue. It won't be a warm night, so you may want to consider longer-sleeved/autumn type gear if you're going to be out and about.

Tomorrow (Friday): Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be the story, but everyone will surely be enjoying the breaks of sun that come with the forecast. High temperatures will reach towards 80 in the afternoon, making it feel warmer than the past several days this week. There's a chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but nothing too intrusive. Short sleeved gear will probably be the way to go.

A look ahead to the weekend: This weekend looks to offer improved conditions throughout our forecast area. Temperatures will rebound beginning on Friday, as mentioned, towards the lower 80's, with the sun returning as well. Saturday looks to offer a similar forecast, while Sunday may bring a slightly higher chance of thunderstorms as a front nears the area. A bit of a side note, but Friday may both offer high surf and dangerous rip tides near the area beaches as Katia passes to our east. 


Article written by John Homenuk,  September 8th, 2011 at 6:25pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the current work week and weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.