NAM model showing low's in the 30's and 40's Friday AM

A cold front currently situated to our west over Pennsylvania, associated with a disturbance in the middle levels of the atmosphere, will move through the area beginning this morning and afternoon. The first sign of the front will be a wind shift at the surface--where the winds will shift from southerly to westerly. During this shift and for the hours after it, showers and thunderstorms will be scattered throughout the area. Finally, temperatures are forecast to drop rather rapidly in the afternoon. In fact, the temperature drop could be as much as 30 degrees. High temperatures in the early afternoon could actually reach towards 80--and then drop near 50 overnight. Winds will increase as well gust out of the northwest by evening. With clearing skies, a much cooler airmass, lower dew points, and light northwest winds...radiational cooling will be ideal Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures will drop accordingly, to near record-low levels, especially in the interior. Forecast models currently indicate low temperatures could reach into the upper 30's (yes, that says upper 30's, not a typo) to lower 40's in the interior and higher elevations, and more towards the upper 40's to near 50 in the city and surrounding areas. Either way you slice it, it will feel shockingly cool after the airmass we've been in for a few weeks.



Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely, especially during the morning and afternoon. High temperatures near 80 degrees in the city and New Jersey, and in the 70's inland and near the shore. Temperatures dropping rapidly by late afternoon in all areas. Winds will turn west by afternoon. Bring the rain gear along--but we really can't suggest short or long sleeves. It's really a toss up, depending on what time of day you're going out.

Tonight: Okay, now we can recommend long sleeves. Maybe a sweatshirt, too. Temperatures will be near record-low levels in the interior (upper 30's to low 40's)...and the upper 40's to near 50 in the city. The 30 degree drop in temperatures will feel rather shocking, so be prepared.

Article written by John Homenuk, September 15th, 2011 at 12:32am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.