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Pleasant start to the week, but storm looms

By John
Published on 12:12 AM at , , , , , ,
NAM Model showing a strong surface low
in the Northeast US on Wednesday. 
A thermal boundary (temperature drop) will cross the area by Monday morning, and winds will have shifted from west to southwest in its wake. Meanwhile, any showers that were near the area overnight Sunday will have cleared. Monday looks like a pleasant day as high pressure is built in directly to our south. Although the high pressure's handle on the pattern will be short lived, and it's gradient with a low pressure to our north allowed for gusty winds this weekend, it will be suffice to keep Monday and the first half of Tuesday rather pleasant throughout our area. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the middle 60's once again on Monday, and although it will still be somewhat breezy, winds will be less of a problem than they were on both Saturday and Sunday. Monday night also looks pleasant, with the exception being some high clouds beginning to move in later in the overnight period into Tuesday morning. However, the main weather story will come in the middle of the week, as a large storm system organizes over the Eastern 1/3 of the United States, and then interacts with tropical moisture setting the stage for a rainy Wednesday. 


MID WEEK WEATHER TAKES AN OMINOUS TURN: An extremely large disturbance in the atmosphere develops over the Central US and moves eastward beginning early this week, forcing the development of a strong surface low. Thereafter, the surface low is forecast to move northward up and along the East Coast while interacting with plentiful tropical moisture. Forecast models are a bit inconsistent, so it's too early to tell exactly when or where the heaviest precipitation could fall, but the potential exists for a widespread moderate to heavy rain event on Wednesday throughout the area. We will keep you posted!


THE FORECAST...


Today (Monday): Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. West winds 10 to 15 miles per hour, occassionally gusting near 20 miles per hour. A generally pleasant autumn afternoon! 


Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a 20% chance of an isolated shower. Low near 52. West winds between 5 and 10 miles per hour. 


Article written by JH. Published October 17th, 2011 at 12:12am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.  
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