NAM Model showing a strong low pressure over the Northeast on Wednesday.

The week began with a beautiful fall day on Monday, and will likely continue with much of the same today on Tuesday. High pressure which is built in to our south and east can be thanked for this (and the pleasant weather since this weekend), but it won't be able to hang on for long. In fact, it's already losing it's grip on the weather pattern over the area as tropical moisture gathers in the Gulf of Mexico and prepares to interact with a northern stream trough. However, today looks to be another spectacular fall day with mostly sunny skies throughout the morning and afternoon. Temperatures, under the full sun, will be able to rise into the middle 60's in a very similar fashion to Monday. Winds, this time around, will be less gusty and even less breezy than they have been the past three days. The pressure gradient which caused the winds is non-existent during the day today. Starting this afternoon and evening, high clouds will begin to build in and we may lose the sun during the afternoon. Clouds will lower by Tuesday evening and a chance for showers will turn into a good chance of rain by overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.


Today (Tuesday): Partly sunny. Increasing clouds late. High near 68. West winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. A beautiful fall day--but enjoy it, as the middle of the week will turn soggy.

Tonight: Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy. A chance of showers early, then rain likely overnight.  Low near 57. East winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

MID WEEK WEATHER TAKES AN OMINOUS TURN: An extremely large disturbance in the atmosphere develops over the Central US and moves eastward beginning early this week, forcing the development of a strong surface low. Thereafter, the surface low is forecast to move northward up and along the East Coast while interacting with plentiful tropical moisture. Forecast models are a bit inconsistent, so it's too early to tell exactly when or where the heaviest precipitation could fall, but the potential exists for a widespread moderate to heavy rain event on Wednesday throughout the area. We will keep you posted!

Article written by JH. Published October 18th, 2011 at 12:40am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.