NAM Model showing low pressure moving near our area Thursday.

The wonderfully warm weather of the weekend now a distant memory, showers and cool conditions have taken a stranglehold on the areas weather and will continue to do so through the end of the week. The culprit is a broad disturbance in the middle of the atmosphere, which will continue to spin near the area through Friday afternoon. Individual pertubations in the flow of the atmosphere (smaller disturbances) will move up the east coast on Thursday, causing the development of showers with areas of embedded moderate to heavy rain. The rain is not expected to be overly widespread in it's heavy nature, but the showers will definitely make for a damp, cool, and wet forecast. Our area avoided much of the more steady shower activity on Wednesday, but Thursday looks to be a different story. The showers and poor conditions are forecast to continue through Friday morning, when the system begins to lift north of the region. Thereafter, clearing is forecast through Friday with winds becoming gusty out of the west on Friday night into Saturday. That being said, despite the winds, most will be happy to see the sun after the unsettled weather this week will have provided.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Thursday): Mostly cloudy, with a 40% chance of showers. The rain may be moderate to heavy at times. East/northeast winds off the water will keep the air feeling damp. High temperatures in the middle 60's.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. Chance of precipitation is 80%.  The showers could be moderate to heavy at times. East/southeast winds continuing to keep the air cool and damp. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60's.

Article written by JH. Published October 13th, 2011 at 12:37am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.