NAM model showing significant energy in the mid levels of the atmosphere

Autumn is a season of change, and by this time of year in mid October the atmosphere begins to undergo some significant transitions. The colder air which has been bottled up near the poles all summer is beginning to work southward through Canada. Because of this, energy and disturbances are gaining strength. Cold fronts are stronger, low pressure areas are deeper, and even high pressures bring cooler air with a lower sun angle. A great example can be found in the storm system affecting the area through Friday afternoon. This system has picked up some extra steam as it dives southward from Canada, and interacts with moisture off the coast in the Atlantic Ocean. Strong forcing for precipitation will develop Friday morning and again Friday afternoon, and the moisture will bring the potential for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms, as well as heavy rain. The best potential for this heavy rain will come in two rounds. The first will occur Friday morning (early, before or during the morning commute). The second will occur with another front, moving towards our area from the south, Friday afternoon. Both will bring the potential for heavy rain, strong thunderstorms, and the potential for strong wind gusts. The storms are expected to clear the area by Saturday morning, but afterwards the changing airmasses and pressure gradient between the departing low pressure and the building high will create the potential for strong fair-weather winds.

The severe weather potential remains somewhat conditional upon any breaks in the clouds which we can manage during the day on Friday. The breaks in the clouds would allow for more daytime heating and sun, which would allow the atmosphere to become more unstable. Even despite this potential instability, as we mentioned, the storms could be strong. The Storm Prediction Center has not placed our area in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather, but does mention the potential for strong to severe storms. We will keep you updated throughout the day!


Today (Friday): Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. Additionally, thunderstorms likely in the morning and again mid afternoon. Some storms may be strong to severe with heavy rain. High near 73. South-southeast winds 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 100%.


Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. Additionally, thunderstorms possible early. Some storms may be strong to severe with heavy rain. Low near 53. South winds becoming west at 15-20 miles per hour.

Article written by JH. Published October 13th, 2011 at 10:00pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.