NAM model showing low pressure moving up the coast this week.

Over the past three days, temperatures have averaged over 15 degrees ( to near 20 degrees in spots) above  normal averages. The afternoons have been filled with warm sun, and the weekend was characterized by a summer-like vibe throughout the area as thousands flocked to the beaches. These temperatures and summer-like conditions were a direct result of a large ridge in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, which brought warm air from the south-southwest and funneled it east into our area. The vast high pressure kept the weather dry and sunny, and it made for one of the best stretches of early to mid October weather that one can ask for. Records were broken on Sunday afternoon as the thermometer reached the upper 80's. However, the middle of this week should do it's part to serve as a stark reminder that it is not summer. In fact, it's the middle of October which often features high temperatures in the low to mid 60's and sometimes cool, raw and showery conditions. The forecast during the middle of the week will take a sharp turn towards this historically "normal" pattern.

By Tuesday afternoon, a low pressure system will begin moving north up the East Coast. Currently located off the coast of the Carolinas, this low pressure system is taking over the pattern as the high pressure which dominated our area's weather this weekend moves away. With the counter-clockwise flow of air around a low pressure to our south, winds will take a sharp easterly turn by Tuesday afternoon. Clouds, and temperatures only maxing out in the 70's will be the result...but this won't be the worst of the weather for the week. Tuesday Night through essentially mid-Thursday, the potential will exist for moderate to heavy rain in association with the low pressure, which will pass just east of our area. In fact, Wednesday's high temperatures may barely get into the lower 60's. Sound dramatically cool compared to this weekend? It should, but it's only two to three degrees below our averages this time of year. The rain is expected to begin to wrap up by Friday, and the weekend (although it's in the distant future, still) may provide cool and crisp conditions with a fresh new high pressure moving down from Canada.

THE FORECAST...

Today (Wednesday): Cloudy with a chance of spotty showers. The showers won't be widespread early, band likely would be better defined as isolated. But by afternoon and evening, they will become more scattered. Chance of rain exists pretty much throughout the day.. Winds northeast..generally around 5 to 10 miles per hour but maybe a bit more gusty near the shore and on the coastal waters.

Tonight: Cloudy, with a slight chance of showers throughout the evening. Low near 58. East winds 10 to 15 miles per hour, and the maritime air will make it feel much more damp and cool compared to the past several nights.

Article written by JH. Re-published October 12th, 2011 at 1:25am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.