An absolutely beautiful Autumn day is coming to an end this evening, and with the sun set for several hours now (thanks to regular time and the end of daylight savings), the night sky is alive with millions of stars. You may also find that it will be alive with other, fast moving bright objects. You can thank the annual Leonid Meteor Shower for that. The meteor shower peaks on Wednesday morning (early, in the wee hours) this upcoming week. That being said, the skies are crystal clear with great visibility this evening, so if you get yourself a warm blanket and a good view away from the city lights, you're in a good position to see a few shooting stars. The Leonids are actually one of several meteor showers which are remnants of old comets. You can read more on the annual Leonids here.

GFS Ens. long range 2m temp forecast

What else is going on, besides the regular forecast? Our forecasters have been turning their eyes towards the longer range, as we head towards Late November and Early December, typically a wild weather period around our area. What we've found is some evidence for the development of wintry, cold air. Forecast models agree on the development of a -NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), along with the development of a large west coast trough associated with a -PNA.  The resulting pattern suggests troughiness on the west coast of the United States, as well as a blocking-type pattern north of our area, which could develop a gradient (west to east) pattern in the mid and upper level jet stream from the Central to Eastern United States. With some serious cold around on the global ensembles (see the featured image to your right), the potential exists for a colder and potentially snowier start to our winter season, especially for northern areas and higher elevations.

What actually happens remains to be seen, but at this point, our intrigue is raised towards the potential for colder air and snow at the end of November and the beginning of December. This has been the pattern, lately, in La Nina type patterns (which we are in). For now, enjoy the 60 degree temperatures expected Sunday and upper 50's expected Monday. It may be the last you see of it for a while.

Article by John Homenuk. 9:16pm November 13th, 2010. Need more? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the remainder of the week and weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.