NAM Models forecast high temperatures for Saturday 9/3/2011.

Friday was once again a story of a squeeze play, as we were able to avoid the full affects of a back door cold  front and associated clouds and showers. Temperatures were able to rise to respectable levels (near 80) in the earlier parts of the day before clouds moved in by the middle of the afternoon from the west, capping off the daytime heating earlier than expected.  Overall, though, Friday was not too different from Thursday which featured much of the same type of weather, although temperatures were a few degrees warmer on Thursday than they were on Friday (mid 80's compared to near 80). Overall, the pattern will remain very active over the next 7 days or so, becoming increasingly active by the end of this weekend into the middle of next week. The potential will exist for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the middle of next week. The exact track and positioning of an upper level disturbance over the Northern US, and Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico could be problematic for our forecast over the next several days. Keep reading for all of the details.

Today (Saturday): We're able to get a bit warmer today than we did yesterday, but in and out clouds will keep us from torching. High temperatures should reach into the middle 80's with, as mentioned, sun and clouds. The clouds could become more widespread by afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will be developing to our west, and are forecast to stay there, but could impact Western New Jersey and Southeast New York by early evening.

Tonight (Saturday Night): A chance of an early shower or thunderstorm, followed by partly cloudy skies. Low temperatures will be much warmer than previous nights, not dropping below 70, so you won't need a sweatshirt. A long sleeved shirt is probably optional near the shore or the water.

Looking Ahead to Sunday: Sunday looks to feature the potential for warmer weather---and less clouds early, which should allow for temperatures to rise more steadily. High temperatures could be in the upper 80's, and the higher dew points will make it feel like the 90's for the first time in a few weeks. Again, showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast by afternoon. Storms are, again, more likely to the west over Western NJ, Eastern PA, and Southeast NY.

Model guidance forecast tracks for Hurricane Katia (click to enlarge)

Tropical Update: Hurricane Katia and Tropical Storm Lee remain the points of interest. Lee is forecast to move northward and make landfall along the Gulf Coast, and then phase (or interact with) a disturbance over the Central US--potentially causing the system to move north and east and interact with a front near our area...hence the potential for showers, storms, and unsettled weather early next week. Katia is once again a hurricane, with sustained winds of 75mph at the 11pm NHC advisory (9/2). Katia is forecast to move northwestward over the next few days and strengthen--and although forecast guidance has shifted west, it remains unlikely that we will see impacts from the system. Still, it is too far in the future to speculate on the exact track that Katia will take, or the exact strength she will be.

Article written September 3rd, 2011 at 12:46am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the weekend into next week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.