It's been several days now since the first drops of rain, courtesy of an upper level low moving in from the midwest, fell in our area last weekend. Even now, almost a week later, we're still feeling it's effects as the system meanders over the region. In fact, today, the system is nearly on top of the region, rotating above us, and bringing the chance for widespread showers and the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. That being said, this system has left many wondering: where is the late spring to early summer weather? The good news is, we have the answer, and it's not as far away as you may think. Featured image: latest Level 2 radar image courtesy of Rutgers Weather Net.

The upper level low currently over our region will slowly move east over the next day or two, and allow for a mid level and surface ridge to build into the region. The surface winds will turn more southerly and even southwesterly, drawing in very warm air from the South and South-Central United States. The bulk of the warmth is currently forecast to occur around the middle of next week (Tuesday-Thursday), but the pattern will remain much warmer than it has been this week, even through Memorial Day weekend. To put some numbers on it, several forecast models are already indicative of mid 80's temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. We'll be sure to keep a close eye on the warm up, trust me, we are looking forward to the nicer weather just as much as you. For now, we'll slowly improve the forecast through the next few days. Enjoy your Friday!

This afternoon (Friday): Mostly cloudy, with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. High near 72. South winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Tonight (Friday Night): Mostly cloudy, with showers likely. Low near 58. North winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 76. West-northwest winds 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Article by John Homenuk. Written May 20th, 2011 at 12:53pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.