It's been a long week of drizzly, sometimes rainy, and dreary conditions. At this point, we can finally say, we made it. Monday should be the first in a series of warmer-than-average days which will feature temperatures in the 70's away from the immediate beaches, warming into the 80's by mid week. The humidity levels will also increase, as will the potential for thunderstorms. Monday, despite the warmer temperatures, should feature chances for showers and thunderstorms both in the morning and afternoon. This potential will become especially magnified on Tuesday, when a low pressure system will pass just northwest of the region, providing the focus point for the development of strong thunderstorms with an unstable atmosphere (temperatures in the upper 70's to 80's. It should be noted that the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in a Slight Risk for severe weather (enhanced 30% slight risk) on Tuesday. Featured image: Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center showing a Slight Risk of severe weather over our area. A Slight Risk of severe weather is triggered by a 15% risk of severe weather. The 30% risk area suggests greater than normal potential for organized severe weather.

Beyond this, forecast models attempt to continue the warmer weather through Memorial Day weekend, building a ridge over the Eastern United States which could allow for several days of temperatures in the 80's and even building towards 90. It's a long ways away, but the good news is that there are no indications of any prolonged periods of cold, or rainy weather. Have a great Monday! The forecast at a glance is below.

Monday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High near 72. South winds 8 to 14 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low near 63. South winds 8 to 14 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a chance of thunderstorms. Some storms may be strong to severe. High near 85. West-southwest winds 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Article by John Homenuk. Written May 23rd, 2011 at 2:36am. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming work week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.