Sunday turned out to be a beautiful day throughout most of the area, with ridging built into the area aloft, temperatures rose into the upper 40's to lower 50's in most spots away from the shore or areas far to the north. It was a comfortable, and sunny late winter Sunday. The forecast changes dramatically by Monday, as the week begins with another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms. A storm system organizing over the Central United States (see Storm Prediction Center's Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of Arkansas and Missouri) will move northeast towards the Great Lakes. The result will be a warm front pushing northward from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast, with moderate to heavy rain (and some thunderstorms) along it for Monday morning. Then, our area will be in the "warm sector" (behind the warm front, and ahead of the cold front, with south winds)..and temperatures will warm potentially into the 60's in some areas. Finally, the cold front will cross Monday afternoon with another round of rain (heavier in thunderstorms, which may be strong). The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Southwest portions of our area in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow. The rain should wrap up by later Monday with cooler temperatures behind the system. Stay tuned for more information including potential Severe Thunderstorm watches, or warnings tomorrow. Featured image: 18z NAM from February 27th, 2011 showing high temperatures in the mid to upper 60's over New Jersey on Monday afternoon with the cold front to the west over Pennsylvania.

Tonight: Overcast with a 70% chance of rain showers....mainly after midnight. Patchy fog. Low: 40. E winds 5-10 mph.

Monday: Areas of fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy and breezy with a 100% chance of rain showers, heavy at times. Scattered thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Some storms may contain strong winds. Mild, with a high near 60. SE winds becoming SW at 10-20 mph. 

Article by John Homenuk. Written February 27th, 2011 at 5:35pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming week, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.