A significant storm system will develop early this evening from the Central United States towards the Mississippi Valley and eventually into Central New York State Friday. A warm southerly flow will develop as a warm front passes the area tonight into Friday, and winds will increase dramatically Friday. Heavy rain can be expected overnight with the warm front, and again Friday afternoon as the cold front passes the region, bringing a chance of thunderstorms and strong northwesterly winds behind it. Rain amounts in excess of 1 inch should be common, with lesser amounts a bit further to the south where the warm front has less support for heavy rainfall. Winds could gust as high as 60 miles per hour Friday both ahead of the cold front and behind it. This has the potential to be a high impact storm system, so please prepare accordingly...it will not be a pretty Friday! We have issued a Hazards Assessment Graphic Timeline which details the upcoming storm and it's impacts. Featured image: 12z WRF-NMM model showing 25-30kt surface winds over New York City Friday afternoon, and higher amounts along the shore and Long Island. Courtesy to Wright-Weather model data.

Tonight (Thursday Night): Mostly cloudy, with rain likely. The rain may be heavy at times. Low around 40. South wind 5 to 10 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Friday: Heavy rain, with thunderstorms possible afternoon. Some of the storms could be strong with heavy rain and strong winds.  High near 55. South wind 20 to 30 miles per hour, turning west-northwest at 25 to 35 miles per hour, gusting as high as 55 to 60 miles per hour. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Article by John Homenuk. Written February 24th, 2011 at 5:25pm. Looking for a forecast? See New York Metro Weather's Long Range Forecast for the upcoming weekend, or view our Technical Forecast Discussion for the more serious weather enthusiasts. Also, check out our new Forecast Overview tab. For up to the minute details on forecasts, watches, warnings, and alerts, follow us on Twitter and Facebook.