New York Metro Weather has issued a Snowstorm Watch for: Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Passaic, Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Somerset, Middlesex, Monmouth, Mercer, Ocean, Burlington, and Union counties in New Jersey...Orange, Rockland, Putnam, Westchester, Manhattan, Bronx, Kings, Queens, Richmond, Nassau, and Suffolk Counties in New York...and Fairfield, New Haven, and Litchfield counties in Connecticut. This Snowstorm Watch is valid from 12:00pm Wednesday afternoon through 6:00pm Thursday evening. A Snowstorm Watch is issued when forecasters expect the potential for six inches or more of snow to occur over the watch time period.--typically issued one to three days in advance of a storm system, prior to a warning. The snow accumulation may cause travel difficulties, delays, and stoppages...and may be hazardous to driving and traveling. The official text for the Snowstorm Watch is below. New York Metro Weather
Snowstorm Watch
2:30am January 25th, 2011
...This is not an official National Weather Service product and should not be confused for an official watch, warning or advisory...
*Counties incuded:
New Jersey: Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Passaic, Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Somerset, Middlesex, Monmouth, Mercer, Ocean, Burlington, and Union
New York: Orange, Rockland, Putnam, Westchester, Manhattan, Bronx, Kings, Queens, Richmond, Nassau, and Suffolk
Connecticut: Fairfield, New Haven, Litchfield
...Significant winter storm may impact the area Wednesday into Thursday...
*Hazards...A significant winter storm with moderate to potentially heavy snow, as well as mixed precipitation such as sleet, and freezing rain will cause and travel difficulties Wednesday through Thursday.
*Accumulations...Uncertainty still exists in the exact track of the forecast system. The mean forecast of all model guidance indicates around 5 to 10 inches of snow across most of the area, with higher amounts over Northern New Jersey, Southeast New York, Southwest Connecticut, and potentially Western Long Island and New York City. There is the potential for significant snow..in excess of 10 inches..if the storm draws in enough cold air for significant snow.
*Impact...Travel could be severely affected during the afternoon and evening commute Wednesday, as well as Thursday. Prepare for potential delays now. If the storm does remain cold enough for mostly snow, travel may become near impossible with very heavy snow and low visibilities.
*Timing...The snow is forecast to develop by afternoon Wednesday and spread northeast through the area. Most models indicate light to moderate precipitation for several hours in the form of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Then, the heaviest snow is expected overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. Areas that were mixing should change over to all snow. The snow is expected to slowly taper off from southwest to northeast Thursday afternoon and evening.
*Discussion...
...Coastal storm system will impact the area with a potentially significant winter weather event Wednesday and Thursday...
A coastal storm system is forecast to develop off the southeast states by Monday evening and Tuesday morning. This storm system is forecast to develop north and northeast as a strong upper level storm system approaches from the suthwest. This will favor the development of the low pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic coast, which is then forecast to move northeast towards the 40/70 Benchmark south of Cape Cod. The result will be the potential for another significant snow in the forecast area. The forecast models still project some uncertainty in the forecast temperatures throughout the atmosphere. A colder solution would lead to more snow, while a warmer solution would lead to more mixing with sleet, freezing rain and rain. As it stands now, areas along the New Jersey Shore and Southeast New Jersey as well as Eastern Long Island stand the best chance of mixing for a prolonged period. All areas should gradually flip to snow (possibly heavy) by overnight Wednesday into Thursday with potentially significant accumulations.
Even with the degree of uncertainty, we had enough confidence to issue the Snowstorm Watch this morning. Currently, it appears plausible (confidence over 50%) that any area in the watch could receive 6 or more inches of snow. Things should be much more clear by Tuesday afternoon. If you have any plans for Wednesday into Thursday, you should adjust accordingly.
Stay tuned to updates on this Snowstorm Watch page, as well as updates from our blog and text forecasts. As always, refer to your local National Weather Service for official forecasts and safety information.
A Snowstorm Watch means that forecasters expect the potential for 6 or more inches of snow to accumulate during the watch active time period within the watch area. This snow could cause severe travel difficulties, delays, or stoppages. It may be dangerous to travel during the watch time period. Please prepare for slippery and snowy roads and keep alert for updates on the situation.
JH
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