An unseasonably warm and humid air mass has entrenched itself within the region this morning and will be in place through this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. The warm sector ahead of the cold front is characterized by temperatures in the mid to upper 60's, to lower 70's in some locales as a warm and humid southerly flow continues to advect in the unstable air. The severe weather threat remains somewhat uncertain this afternoon and evening. Widespread clouds and warm sector contamination have inhibited heating and further destabilization, and at this point the instability is meager with very little surface based instability observed at the latest meso-analysis (1230pm). Additionally, mid level lapse rates remain poor, which isn't helping the instability situation. Still, rather robust dynamics aloft characterized by a strong mid level shortwave and jet dynamics will drive the cold front eastward this afternoon and evening.

Any instability that does develop (mostly south of the warm front from Southwest CT southward through Northeast New Jersey towards the Mid Atlantic) could support the development of strong convection capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Additionally, with the warm front just warm of the region, some low level shear could support an isolated rotating supercell or two. The severe weather threat east of the city remains rather low. We've included the latest Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook to the left, and the latest radar image to your right. We will continue to update this post throughout the day as the situation develops, so continue to check back for more information. The forecast and text products will also be updated this afternoon.

1:15pm: The Storm Prediction Center has issued Mesoscale Discussion # 2134 concerning the potential severe weather event. The northern extent of the mesoscale discussion reaches the far southwest extent of our area. A tornado or severe thunderstorm watch may be issued for these areas over the next few hours.

6:00pm: Showers and thunderstorms are increasing areawide as the low level jet strengthens this evening. There will likely be a period of very heavy rain through around 9pm in the area. These storms could produce gusty/damaging winds and possibly an isolated tornado. The image to the right is a high resolution radar image from 6:00pm Eastern Time showing showers and thunderstorms. These storms are moving rapidly northeast. Again, heavy rain, frequent lightning and thunder are likely within these storms. Flooding of roadways could happen rapidly. Caution is urged to those who will be on the road/driving during these storms. We will continue to update over the next few hours as things progress.

6:45pm: It's official, tonights ALCS Game 6 has been called. It's postponed until 8:20pm tomorrow night. Additionally, we have some warnings to relay your way from the National Weather Service in our general area. A radar shot to your left shows the associated warned area, and the text is as follows: 643 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 2009 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR WEST CENTRAL SOMERSET AND EASTERN HUNTERDON COUNTIES...AT 642 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FLEMINGTON...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SOMERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LEBANON...FLAGTOWN...WHITE HOUSE STATION...RARITAN AND BRIDGEWATER .

7:25pm: The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued Mesoscale Discussion #2135 for the New York City metro area and portions of Eastern New Jersey including the jersey shore and portions of Western Long Island. A severe weather watch is not likely (probably because the severe weather is occurring right now), but we urge you to stay tuned for more information including warnings, severe weather reports, statements, etc. We've included an image of the mesoscale discussion's affected area to the right, but please click the link above for the official discussion accompanying the graphic. Also, the severe thunderstorm warning which was in effect for Somerset county has expired. We will continue to update this post through the evening.