While much belows are expanding in the Plains, the bigger change was the warmer East Coast today. The models are favoring a slower-moving cold front so that the East gets more opportunity for warming out ahead of it. The other big change is the expansion of cooling into the West, especially California and the Southwest, where even a much below normal day could pop in briefly. Due to this bigger change today, forecast confidence remains on the low side. The cold frontal passage Saturday Night could bring with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong if the sun can act to destabilize the atmosphere ahead of the strong cold front. This could threaten the start of ALCS Game 6, but we will have a more detailed post tomorrow concerning that game.





11-15 Day Outlook

Despite big changes in the 6-10 day today, the American and European ensembles are surprisingly on similar pages with each other and yesterday's themes (consistency). Due to the weaker confidence lead-in from the 6-10 day, we still need to maintain only low confidence in this outlook, but the thinking here is that another cool push will make its way into the middle of the nation by days 12-13 and then proceed south and east once again. There appears to again be resistance to getting this cooling into the Southeast initially here (although the Southeast is favored to be cooler than normal with the first cool push on days 11-12). 
 



JD/JH