I have already discussed how terribly painful these next few weeks will be for the East Coast..So why not discuss how things the past few days have started showing seeds of a pattern change. Lets keep in mind that this is a ways away, and there is likely some major variability to be exposed among these forecasts, but the trend is shown. Yesterdays EPO forecast was the 4th day in a row that Ensembles have forecasted such a big drop, and it jumped out at me a bit..


As shown..the EPO takes a major nosedive around the 8th of Jan..and if such a nosedive were to verify..EC Posters should watch out. However, I think the Ensembles are moving this pattern change along way too fast, and would forecast two things different from that map..One being no nosedive..more of a gradual drop..and two being about 5-7 days later placing the pattern change around January 15th-20th or so.

However, there are other things that need to be watched as well..The NAO is currently forecasted by ensembles to stay Nueutral to Positive through January 15th. With more implications comes the AO Index..which has been raging Positive since Late November. Ensemble forecasts bring the AO way up before it comes down..and for the range we are looking at, the agreement that it will come down a bit is fairly good..however it is still a ways away and I feel we are looking way to far into the future by trying to forecast what ensembles will say.


All in all, I think we need to patient, as I expressed in a post about a week ago. Seeds of a pattern change are beginning to grow on models and long range ensemble forecasts, but we must not become over anxious..this will be a slow process with alot of things working at once. I think all eyes need to be on the AO and the Pacific Pattern..both which are absolutely horrendous for a cold Eastern Conus. Hang in there folks.

And I will throw the EC Snow Hounds a bone--

Jan 25th