NYCDiscussion
Short Range: JMH
Long Range: BMC
Short Term
A very gloomy start to this Friday so far as a Southwesterly Flow has brought mild conditions into the area. Surface Trough will move into the region with a Low Pressure region over the Great Lakes. Fog has been an issue this morning, and may not burn off until mid afternoon in some regions. Cold front and associated vorticity move over the region later this afternoon, providing a good chance at at least scattered showers across the area. SPC had placed the area in General Thunderstorm area but the new 1630z Outlook has removed that area, and will not include thunder in the graphical forecast this afternoon. Front passes through tonight and most clouds clear out making for a nice day tomorrow with Highs Generally in the Low 50's across the region. High Pressure will take over the weather for the most part across the region for early next week.
JMH
Long Term
Things will begin to get interesting, especially later in the week and towards the Holidays. However, model guidance is all over the place. How do we figure out which solution is right? I think we must learn to question the legitimacy of model output in correlation with synoptic features and indicated factors such as NAO and PNA. If we are able to due this, their is no question in my mind we can resolve the confusion and illustrate what will unfold based on the laws of meteorology as we know them. I think many people are focusing to much on individual aspects as to whether one storm will do this or another will do that etc. What we should however take into consideration is any blocking apparent or bound to occur will eliminate any chances for current model forecasts to verify. Point being that with blocking the scenario should unfold according to sound laws of meteorology. Suppression of the SE Ridge is usually apparent if not excessive in allowing for the dissipation of such an occurrence which lowers ridging or heights in the east. Also what must be inferred from blocking is that with it present, no northern stream impulse will be able to pass shortwaves, that cut through the lakes or northeast and set up an overrunning scenario. Simply laws of sound meteorology indicate that with blocking present any shortwave will be forced to dig and inevitable phase with sw shortwave energy ejected into the central US or at best re spawn/redevelop.
Simply a phase is the only solution viable during a period of blocking (mod-strong) and with such features present and with possibly a -NAO and +PNA the phased energy will be forced under the blocking and into the eastern US serving as a coastal threat. No two pieces of energy-one splitting off and heading straight into the block, or a lake cutter into the block-only a bonifide coastal low in the eastern US would be possible with such synoptics. Never the less with no blocking anything can happen and chances severely decrease for snow in the northeast. In my opinion if the aforementioned period in question is to favor snow blocking must be present. Something to watch unfold in the models as the days go by.
BMC
Short Range: JMH
Long Range: BMC
Short Term
A very gloomy start to this Friday so far as a Southwesterly Flow has brought mild conditions into the area. Surface Trough will move into the region with a Low Pressure region over the Great Lakes. Fog has been an issue this morning, and may not burn off until mid afternoon in some regions. Cold front and associated vorticity move over the region later this afternoon, providing a good chance at at least scattered showers across the area. SPC had placed the area in General Thunderstorm area but the new 1630z Outlook has removed that area, and will not include thunder in the graphical forecast this afternoon. Front passes through tonight and most clouds clear out making for a nice day tomorrow with Highs Generally in the Low 50's across the region. High Pressure will take over the weather for the most part across the region for early next week.
JMH
Long Term
Things will begin to get interesting, especially later in the week and towards the Holidays. However, model guidance is all over the place. How do we figure out which solution is right? I think we must learn to question the legitimacy of model output in correlation with synoptic features and indicated factors such as NAO and PNA. If we are able to due this, their is no question in my mind we can resolve the confusion and illustrate what will unfold based on the laws of meteorology as we know them. I think many people are focusing to much on individual aspects as to whether one storm will do this or another will do that etc. What we should however take into consideration is any blocking apparent or bound to occur will eliminate any chances for current model forecasts to verify. Point being that with blocking the scenario should unfold according to sound laws of meteorology. Suppression of the SE Ridge is usually apparent if not excessive in allowing for the dissipation of such an occurrence which lowers ridging or heights in the east. Also what must be inferred from blocking is that with it present, no northern stream impulse will be able to pass shortwaves, that cut through the lakes or northeast and set up an overrunning scenario. Simply laws of sound meteorology indicate that with blocking present any shortwave will be forced to dig and inevitable phase with sw shortwave energy ejected into the central US or at best re spawn/redevelop.
Simply a phase is the only solution viable during a period of blocking (mod-strong) and with such features present and with possibly a -NAO and +PNA the phased energy will be forced under the blocking and into the eastern US serving as a coastal threat. No two pieces of energy-one splitting off and heading straight into the block, or a lake cutter into the block-only a bonifide coastal low in the eastern US would be possible with such synoptics. Never the less with no blocking anything can happen and chances severely decrease for snow in the northeast. In my opinion if the aforementioned period in question is to favor snow blocking must be present. Something to watch unfold in the models as the days go by.
BMC
https://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/2006/12/gloomy-daywhite-long-range.html?showComment=1166324880000#c116632493177720630'> December 16, 2006 at 10:08 PM
for a forecast, you gave alternatives but no real thinking about what should happen. Overall not real good job of forecasting. No blocking is forecast by any model for the rest of the week up to day after xmas and by the gfs thru the end of the year. That spells warm temps say 10-15 degrees above normal.