Now that I am sitting here in my room with all of my windows open, and the thermometer reading 60 degrees Fahrenheit, I figured it would be a good time to put together a post formally releasing my thoughtsregarding the pattern From Mid December to January. I will try to make this post as easily read as possible, but it is a pretty complicated situation. There are a few things that I personally look for in regards to a colder and stormy period. But are these signals here for this years Late December Pattern? Currently, we are sitting in a pretty unfavorable pattern. But there are changes abroad. The first thing I like to do is take a look at the indexes, the ones that can often spell out our pattern. What we can look at here is the NAO, or the North Atlantic Oscillation. The NAO has been positive since Late November. However, the forecasts are trending in the right direction as seen below.
So, we have the NAO trending in the right direction, really, for the first time this winter. The model reflections in this period are extremely variable, but need to be watched. Over the past few days, I personally have been focused mainly on the storm threat around Christmas, but now it appears that we may have even another shot prior to that. Taking a look at some of the latest guidance, this situation is quite the complicated one. I was surprised to see the differences in this mornings guidance (6z), and this afternoons guidance (12z). As we watch this pattern unfold, we need to look at the key features. This starts around 130 hours, as energy moves into the Southwest, and Northern Plains. Firstly, lets look at the 6z GFS December 14th, and its positioning of major features at 132 hours. We can see Major Southern Stream energy, ready to eject to the NE. We can also see another major feature, energy over the Northern Plains. As shown, the 6z GFS takes our southwest energy and interacts it with the Northern Shortwave over the Plains. What is the result? Some snow over portions of Texas and Oklahoma, and a huge rainstorm from the Midwest to The Northeast.
The 12z Guidance is MUCH MUCH Different folks, and it is a difference which is big, simply because it puts the guidance into line with the ECMWF and GEM solutions. The 12z GFS keeps the Northern Stream energy from interacting with the energy in the SW and has it move north as its own storm.
These are major differences. In the short term, the difference is that New England gets absolutely PUMMELED. And yes its a ways away, but this thing bombs offshore and the shortwave heads off too Northeastern Canada. But this shortwave is NOT done helping us. HERE IS WHERE THE GFS GOES OFF FOLKS. Take a look at the pattern being shown at 168 hours. This is an EXTREMELY favorable pattern. There is obviously High Latitude support..basically a 50/50..you cant really miss it.
However, surprisingly enough, the GFS takes this storm from the GOM, suppresses it, and sends it out to sea. Now you tell me folks. Does the upper air pattern support this storm going out to sea? NO!. In fact, the upper air pattern on the 12z GFS supports the storm coming out of the gulf, turning NW and bringing the first significant snowstorm to I-95. With high latitude support, and plenty of cold air, I see no reason why it wouldn't be. The GFS is making a big mistake here by sending this out to sea, and it makes no sense to me. This will need to be watched carefully over the next few days, the potential is screaming at me.
I will continue to update and continue to watch the guidance and modeling and their handling of the pattern. In Summary, Right now, I think we are in a very good spot for New England to have their first snow event around December 19th-21st. Secondly, I think the December 22nd-24th time period needs to be watched for the first threat of an I-95 Snowstorm.
John
So, we have the NAO trending in the right direction, really, for the first time this winter. The model reflections in this period are extremely variable, but need to be watched. Over the past few days, I personally have been focused mainly on the storm threat around Christmas, but now it appears that we may have even another shot prior to that. Taking a look at some of the latest guidance, this situation is quite the complicated one. I was surprised to see the differences in this mornings guidance (6z), and this afternoons guidance (12z). As we watch this pattern unfold, we need to look at the key features. This starts around 130 hours, as energy moves into the Southwest, and Northern Plains. Firstly, lets look at the 6z GFS December 14th, and its positioning of major features at 132 hours. We can see Major Southern Stream energy, ready to eject to the NE. We can also see another major feature, energy over the Northern Plains. As shown, the 6z GFS takes our southwest energy and interacts it with the Northern Shortwave over the Plains. What is the result? Some snow over portions of Texas and Oklahoma, and a huge rainstorm from the Midwest to The Northeast.
The 12z Guidance is MUCH MUCH Different folks, and it is a difference which is big, simply because it puts the guidance into line with the ECMWF and GEM solutions. The 12z GFS keeps the Northern Stream energy from interacting with the energy in the SW and has it move north as its own storm.
These are major differences. In the short term, the difference is that New England gets absolutely PUMMELED. And yes its a ways away, but this thing bombs offshore and the shortwave heads off too Northeastern Canada. But this shortwave is NOT done helping us. HERE IS WHERE THE GFS GOES OFF FOLKS. Take a look at the pattern being shown at 168 hours. This is an EXTREMELY favorable pattern. There is obviously High Latitude support..basically a 50/50..you cant really miss it.
However, surprisingly enough, the GFS takes this storm from the GOM, suppresses it, and sends it out to sea. Now you tell me folks. Does the upper air pattern support this storm going out to sea? NO!. In fact, the upper air pattern on the 12z GFS supports the storm coming out of the gulf, turning NW and bringing the first significant snowstorm to I-95. With high latitude support, and plenty of cold air, I see no reason why it wouldn't be. The GFS is making a big mistake here by sending this out to sea, and it makes no sense to me. This will need to be watched carefully over the next few days, the potential is screaming at me.
I will continue to update and continue to watch the guidance and modeling and their handling of the pattern. In Summary, Right now, I think we are in a very good spot for New England to have their first snow event around December 19th-21st. Secondly, I think the December 22nd-24th time period needs to be watched for the first threat of an I-95 Snowstorm.
John
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