...But Im On My Way Back
Almost as if winter was speaking to us, as the lyrics ring out, the signs are beginning to come together for cold to begin to make its grand entrance back into North America. There are a few things that I myself have been keeping track of, and In fact, I made a post a week or so ago regarding this very matter, and how patience will be needed over the next few weeks. Now that it is January 2nd, we can begin to at least take a peak into the future.
As I discussed, the first thing I am waiting for is the AO, or Arctic Oscillation. There has recently been some confusion, so I figured I would give a good and readable definition that I learned. The Arctic Oscillation refers to opposing atmospheric pressure patterns in northern middle and high latitudes. The oscillation exhibits a "negative phase" with relatively high pressure over the polar region and low pressure at mid latitudes, and a "positive phase" in which the pattern is reversed. In the positive phase, higher pressure at mid latitudes drives ocean storms farther north, and changes in the circulation pattern bring wetter weather to Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia, as well as drier conditions to the western United States and the Mediterranean. In the positive phase, frigid winter air does not extend as far into the middle of North America as it would during the negative phase of the oscillation. This keeps much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains warmer than normal, but leaves Greenland and Newfoundland colder than usual. With the confusion out of the way, we can take a look at the AO and exactly how ugly it has been of late.
As you can see, it has been a big problem. Fortunately, I have been watching ensembles carefully, especially over the past few days. The trend towards a big fall towards negative has been apparent for a week or so now, and yesterday today it has really jumped out at me. Todays ensemble AO Forecasts are below.
As you can see, the look shows a dramatic improvement, if not an extreme improvement. These signs look very good, folks.
Next, I look towards the EPO or the Eastern Pacific Oscillation. The EPO has been a thorn in our side all winter, and it appears to finally get better. In fact, the EPO is forecasted to take a huge dive as well.
I think that now that we have part of the problem solved, we NEED to get the NAO to cooperate as well, and the NAO is forecasted to stay hovering just Positive for the future. In my eyes, the cold will slam into the PNW in Mid January, and take a slow migration Eastward as the Atlantic begins to start cooperating. However, I don't think the East Coast recovers from this, and we could very well see departures of +3 to +5 to end January, even though the last week or two will be cold. It's not a matter of whether we get the cold or not, the question is, will it stick around, or be transient like this entire winter has been so far?
60's in the Mid Atlantic on Saturday.
John
Almost as if winter was speaking to us, as the lyrics ring out, the signs are beginning to come together for cold to begin to make its grand entrance back into North America. There are a few things that I myself have been keeping track of, and In fact, I made a post a week or so ago regarding this very matter, and how patience will be needed over the next few weeks. Now that it is January 2nd, we can begin to at least take a peak into the future.
As I discussed, the first thing I am waiting for is the AO, or Arctic Oscillation. There has recently been some confusion, so I figured I would give a good and readable definition that I learned. The Arctic Oscillation refers to opposing atmospheric pressure patterns in northern middle and high latitudes. The oscillation exhibits a "negative phase" with relatively high pressure over the polar region and low pressure at mid latitudes, and a "positive phase" in which the pattern is reversed. In the positive phase, higher pressure at mid latitudes drives ocean storms farther north, and changes in the circulation pattern bring wetter weather to Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia, as well as drier conditions to the western United States and the Mediterranean. In the positive phase, frigid winter air does not extend as far into the middle of North America as it would during the negative phase of the oscillation. This keeps much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains warmer than normal, but leaves Greenland and Newfoundland colder than usual. With the confusion out of the way, we can take a look at the AO and exactly how ugly it has been of late.
As you can see, it has been a big problem. Fortunately, I have been watching ensembles carefully, especially over the past few days. The trend towards a big fall towards negative has been apparent for a week or so now, and yesterday today it has really jumped out at me. Todays ensemble AO Forecasts are below.
As you can see, the look shows a dramatic improvement, if not an extreme improvement. These signs look very good, folks.
Next, I look towards the EPO or the Eastern Pacific Oscillation. The EPO has been a thorn in our side all winter, and it appears to finally get better. In fact, the EPO is forecasted to take a huge dive as well.
I think that now that we have part of the problem solved, we NEED to get the NAO to cooperate as well, and the NAO is forecasted to stay hovering just Positive for the future. In my eyes, the cold will slam into the PNW in Mid January, and take a slow migration Eastward as the Atlantic begins to start cooperating. However, I don't think the East Coast recovers from this, and we could very well see departures of +3 to +5 to end January, even though the last week or two will be cold. It's not a matter of whether we get the cold or not, the question is, will it stick around, or be transient like this entire winter has been so far?
60's in the Mid Atlantic on Saturday.
John
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