We are all aware of the potential threat for a Miller B late this week. As time shrinks until the anticipated event I would like to add my commentary on the latest aspects and details of this complex situation.
As time nears it is evident the trend in all models to amplify and dig the shortwave further into the trough and even attempt to close it off. This trend is seen on many models but most still fail to show any relatively close area of LP developing off the coast and no or little QPF throughout the northeast. Although this is the case, the trending in recent models might lead some credence to the possibility of seeing this forthcoming in the future. Right now it’s more of a sit and watch, as the models try to determine what unfolds in the future. The 0z should be interesting in determining the extent of this wet dream, or should I say white, and the validity of it.
What is and what isn’t working? Well I personally think the adjusted and increased appeal by the models to focus more on a negatively tilted trough axis is important in increasing our chances for an area of LP developing off the coast and moving northward while staying close enough to provide some QPF of importance. The boundary (baroclinic zone) also adds more credibility to the development of a lollipop area of LP just off shore. The threatening N-S orientation leads to the possibility of greater strengthening and development just off shore if energy transfer or redevelopment occurs. No blocking is something I always fear and so should you, but its not going to hamper our cold more so the potential of this storm either staying coastal or going sea bound. Timing really is crucial and any SE ridging could be the savor quite ironically. If this LP is progressive with this fast paced pattern and develops to far off the coast than forgetta bout it. Hence why blocking is not something to laugh at and disregard as if it doesn’t matter.
The erroneous mishaps of the models seem evident to me. I feel too much upstream energy is being given to the northern shortwave and this eliminates the strength and potential of our coastal feature. I feel that any closing off from the pattern would allow for a closer to the coast solution (the pulling/phasing effect) and digging is a necessary component in allowing further southern regions to get into the action. Confluence will be in place and with the vorticity and strength of the shortwave projected by modeling even if we don’t get any coastal action watch for some whippy winds and very unseasonably cold temps with some low level moisture advection leading to snow showers and lake effect snows.
What to expect? As I said watch future model trends as 0z might be more foretelling on the upcoming situation. Never the less this is a chance that losses probability as time inevitably closes but it also seems to be one gaining slight credibility at the same time. Nothing to be excited or confident about but definitely something to watch for in the future and see if what was aforementioned unfolds favorably or unfavorably. Your guess is as good as mine!
BMC
As time nears it is evident the trend in all models to amplify and dig the shortwave further into the trough and even attempt to close it off. This trend is seen on many models but most still fail to show any relatively close area of LP developing off the coast and no or little QPF throughout the northeast. Although this is the case, the trending in recent models might lead some credence to the possibility of seeing this forthcoming in the future. Right now it’s more of a sit and watch, as the models try to determine what unfolds in the future. The 0z should be interesting in determining the extent of this wet dream, or should I say white, and the validity of it.
What is and what isn’t working? Well I personally think the adjusted and increased appeal by the models to focus more on a negatively tilted trough axis is important in increasing our chances for an area of LP developing off the coast and moving northward while staying close enough to provide some QPF of importance. The boundary (baroclinic zone) also adds more credibility to the development of a lollipop area of LP just off shore. The threatening N-S orientation leads to the possibility of greater strengthening and development just off shore if energy transfer or redevelopment occurs. No blocking is something I always fear and so should you, but its not going to hamper our cold more so the potential of this storm either staying coastal or going sea bound. Timing really is crucial and any SE ridging could be the savor quite ironically. If this LP is progressive with this fast paced pattern and develops to far off the coast than forgetta bout it. Hence why blocking is not something to laugh at and disregard as if it doesn’t matter.
The erroneous mishaps of the models seem evident to me. I feel too much upstream energy is being given to the northern shortwave and this eliminates the strength and potential of our coastal feature. I feel that any closing off from the pattern would allow for a closer to the coast solution (the pulling/phasing effect) and digging is a necessary component in allowing further southern regions to get into the action. Confluence will be in place and with the vorticity and strength of the shortwave projected by modeling even if we don’t get any coastal action watch for some whippy winds and very unseasonably cold temps with some low level moisture advection leading to snow showers and lake effect snows.
What to expect? As I said watch future model trends as 0z might be more foretelling on the upcoming situation. Never the less this is a chance that losses probability as time inevitably closes but it also seems to be one gaining slight credibility at the same time. Nothing to be excited or confident about but definitely something to watch for in the future and see if what was aforementioned unfolds favorably or unfavorably. Your guess is as good as mine!
BMC
https://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/2006/12/long-range-discussion-late-week-storm.html?showComment=1165280100000#c116528012886622427'> December 4, 2006 at 7:55 PM
Alert the media!