Over the past few days we have seen some extreme model shifts. We had the GFS about 500 miles offshore a few days ago, and the NAM with a Strong Low Pressure off the NJ Coast just two days ago. This madness has sent the weather community ( 
). But what exactly are the differences in what we are seeing? So far I have seen a few, that have been pointed out by others a few times as well. Number One would definitely be the behavior of our shortwave. The NAM/GFS and other models have been handling the shortwave differently every single run. A few days ago, The GFS didn't even really dig our shortwave, bringing it up into Upstate New York. Even now, 30 hours out, the NAM and GFS have 
some visible differences in the shortwaves progression. The NAM seems alot slower with the shortwave, and it also opens up the trough a bit more. My second concern is interaction with the energy upstream, or the kicker. It seems at this point that there will definitely be some sort of interaction with the kicker upstream, the question to me is how much and when. Often you will see a kicker aid in keeping a storm in the "sweet spot" or not allowing it to be pulled to close, or too far away from the coastline. However, you can also have those extreme cases when interaction is too small, or too much. The guidance seems to slowly be coming together with the fact that interaction with the upstream disturbance will be much less, allowing for rapid deepening to occur, but just a bit too far offshore. So all in all, unless we have some major model guidance shifts in the next 12 hours, this storm will be a near miss from NYC Southward, and a light event from NYC into Eastern New England. Keep in mind though, that this event is, and was, all about timing, and timing that had to occur just right for this storm to be a major player. A Note For the SNE Posters: I was going to go a bit higher in SNE, especially portions with higher elevations, but I figured I should be conservative here, especially with the mixing factor. Will wait and see as we get closer to the event.
). But what exactly are the differences in what we are seeing? So far I have seen a few, that have been pointed out by others a few times as well. Number One would definitely be the behavior of our shortwave. The NAM/GFS and other models have been handling the shortwave differently every single run. A few days ago, The GFS didn't even really dig our shortwave, bringing it up into Upstate New York. Even now, 30 hours out, the NAM and GFS have 
some visible differences in the shortwaves progression. The NAM seems alot slower with the shortwave, and it also opens up the trough a bit more. My second concern is interaction with the energy upstream, or the kicker. It seems at this point that there will definitely be some sort of interaction with the kicker upstream, the question to me is how much and when. Often you will see a kicker aid in keeping a storm in the "sweet spot" or not allowing it to be pulled to close, or too far away from the coastline. However, you can also have those extreme cases when interaction is too small, or too much. The guidance seems to slowly be coming together with the fact that interaction with the upstream disturbance will be much less, allowing for rapid deepening to occur, but just a bit too far offshore. So all in all, unless we have some major model guidance shifts in the next 12 hours, this storm will be a near miss from NYC Southward, and a light event from NYC into Eastern New England. Keep in mind though, that this event is, and was, all about timing, and timing that had to occur just right for this storm to be a major player. A Note For the SNE Posters: I was going to go a bit higher in SNE, especially portions with higher elevations, but I figured I should be conservative here, especially with the mixing factor. Will wait and see as we get closer to the event.
Comments
0 Response to 'A Very Delicate Situation..Details Still Being Worked Out'
Post a Comment