Today was another extremely cold day here in the New York City Metro Area, mainly thanks to the upp
er air trough sitting over our region. Shortwave digging across the southern end of the
trough has helped to spark snow showers and flurries across much of the region, seen on the DIX Radar Loop from 5pm This Afternoon. The flurries should End as the evening progresses, and the shortwave begins to make its Trek out of the area and up off the NE Coast. Below is the forecast for the rest of this cold and chilly evening.
Long Range Forecast seems to be an interesting one, with the possibility of some snow coming late week. Shortwave trough will swing down from the Upper Plains. Usually, we would be considering a coastal storm involving bombogenesis on the coastal frontal boundary. However, there are too many things working against this storm for me to forecast it. Firstly, We have minimal to no High Latitude Blocking. Secondly, the Atlantic Ridge is way too far east. Thirdly, the trough doesnt really tilt itself negatively until the shortwave has already progressed out of the exit region of the jet. With all this in mind, it looks likely that the front should just spark some snow showers and move out to sea Late This week. This weeks story looks to be cold, and mainy dry with the exception of Snow Showers in response to Todays Shortwave and Late Weeks Cold Front.
John
er air trough sitting over our region. Shortwave digging across the southern end of thetrough has helped to spark snow showers and flurries across much of the region, seen on the DIX Radar Loop from 5pm This Afternoon. The flurries should End as the evening progresses, and the shortwave begins to make its Trek out of the area and up off the NE Coast. Below is the forecast for the rest of this cold and chilly evening.
Long Range Forecast seems to be an interesting one, with the possibility of some snow coming late week. Shortwave trough will swing down from the Upper Plains. Usually, we would be considering a coastal storm involving bombogenesis on the coastal frontal boundary. However, there are too many things working against this storm for me to forecast it. Firstly, We have minimal to no High Latitude Blocking. Secondly, the Atlantic Ridge is way too far east. Thirdly, the trough doesnt really tilt itself negatively until the shortwave has already progressed out of the exit region of the jet. With all this in mind, it looks likely that the front should just spark some snow showers and move out to sea Late This week. This weeks story looks to be cold, and mainy dry with the exception of Snow Showers in response to Todays Shortwave and Late Weeks Cold Front.
John
https://nymetrowx.blogspot.com/2006/12/discussion-another-cold.html?showComment=1165365420000#c116536546843479474'> December 5, 2006 at 7:37 PM
'Tis true with regards to the shortwave trough, but you left out the fact that without a PV situated south of iceland, the vorticity on the east side of the trough would be centered somewhere on the southeastern edge, kept in place by the offshore ridge. This would lead to a coastal development and entrench the trough further. however, the vort is sucked northeast by a VERY strong upper level flow, causing what would be a coastal low to be a long drawn otu trough. Precip does not fire until the trough has encountered strong cold air advection far offshore.