Well folks,
A pattern change is currently evolving that looks very favorable for cold lovers in the East.
For weeks now the Euro, matched very closely by the GFS, has been showing a monster trough digging into the Eastern half of the United States.
The 00Z GFS (96 hours) shows a trough in the East that is constantly reinforced by shortwaves digging along the trough, which is clearly evident at 120 Hours and 144 Hours.
This type of pattern will easily bring very cold shots of air into the Eastern United States. However, while this is a step in the right direction, we are still missing a very important factor: blocking, to keep this pattern in place.
As you can see, the Euro at 96 Hours shows the large trough entering the East but a strikingly positive NAO, shown by the low pressure trough over Greenland and a ridge near the Azores of the coast of Portugal.
This type of “no block” pattern continues at least for the next week, clearly shown by the Euro at 168 Hours.
However, all hope is not lost! While this pattern is not locked in for permanent sustained cold, the trough will sustain itself for quite a while, and will constantly be reamplifying itself due to the very strong ridge in the western half of the United States.
Blocking will likely try to develop, but until then, each shortwave will come and go freely on it’s own.
Jake
A pattern change is currently evolving that looks very favorable for cold lovers in the East.
For weeks now the Euro, matched very closely by the GFS, has been showing a monster trough digging into the Eastern half of the United States.
The 00Z GFS (96 hours) shows a trough in the East that is constantly reinforced by shortwaves digging along the trough, which is clearly evident at 120 Hours and 144 Hours.
This type of pattern will easily bring very cold shots of air into the Eastern United States. However, while this is a step in the right direction, we are still missing a very important factor: blocking, to keep this pattern in place.
As you can see, the Euro at 96 Hours shows the large trough entering the East but a strikingly positive NAO, shown by the low pressure trough over Greenland and a ridge near the Azores of the coast of Portugal.
This type of “no block” pattern continues at least for the next week, clearly shown by the Euro at 168 Hours.
However, all hope is not lost! While this pattern is not locked in for permanent sustained cold, the trough will sustain itself for quite a while, and will constantly be reamplifying itself due to the very strong ridge in the western half of the United States.
Blocking will likely try to develop, but until then, each shortwave will come and go freely on it’s own.
Jake
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